Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach

In 2019, the number of conventional vehicles in Indonesia reached 133,617,012 units, dominated by motorcycles of 112,771,136 units and passenger cars of 15,592,419 units. The high number of conventional motorcycle users can increase the number of pollutants and combustion emissions in the environment. This condition has encouraged the transition to a sustainable transport system that will be needed for decades to come, especially for the electric motorcycle to resolve the issue. This research aims to predict and estimate the market share of electric motorcycles by considering life cycle cost per kilometer. System dynamics simulations are developed to model the adoption-diffusion of electric motorcycles in Indonesia. This model has four main modules: an electric motorcycle module, a conventional motorcycle module, an economy module, and a consumer market module. This model shows a positive trend of EM market share from 2021-2030, with the market share value of EM is 0,411 in 2030. The development of retail price subsidy and electricity price scenarios is also carried out to determine the right policies to accelerate the adoption-diffusion process. Based on the scenario, the provision of retail price subsidy and a decrease in electricity price can increase the value of the EM Market Share.

The Impact of Target Price Policy on Cotton Cultivation: Analysis of County-Level Panel Data from China

China is an important cotton production area in the world. Since 2014, China has implemented a cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang for 7 years. As the policy implementation time has lengthened, some deep-seated problems have started to emerge. Therefore, it is necessary to summarize and evaluate to clarify the future policy direction of the cotton target price subsidy policy. Based on county-level panel data of Xinjiang and Shandong from 2011 to 2018, this paper used the Propensity Score Matching—Difference in Difference method to analyze the impact of the implementation of cotton target price subsidy policy on cotton planting in Xinjiang. The results showed that: (1) after the implementation of the cotton target price subsidy policy, cotton production was stimulated by the transition, cotton producers’ enthusiasm for cotton production was higher, cotton production increased rapidly, and the yield per unit area decreased, indicating that there was a 'bubble' in cotton cultivation. (2) The target price subsidy policy mainly achieves the expansion of the cotton planting scale by reducing the area of competitive crops. In view of the above research conclusions, this paper further explains its policy implications. It is proposed that the future cotton target price level should be formulated to fully consider the comparative benefits between different crops, to restrict the subjects that enjoy subsidies and the upper limit of subsidies, and strictly implement the concept of green development; it is necessary to guide cotton production out of ecologically vulnerable areas.

Does the Land Price Subsidy Still Exist against the Background of Market Reform of Industrial Land?

In 2007, China started the market reform of industrial land, with the aim of establishing a more effective industrial land market and promoting the effective allocation of land. For this study, we want to explore what strategic choices local governments and enterprises will make under the background of market-oriented reform, and whether there are still some implicit land price subsidies. In this context, based on matching micro land transfer data (2007–2013), we examined the policy effect in the seven years since the reform. Then, we further analyzed the land transfer strategies of local governments and the differences they made to enterprises’ land purchasing decisions against the background of the reform. The following were found: ① With the deepening of market reform, the effect has gradually become clear. The proportion of industrial land transferred through market modes increases year by year. Furthermore, due to marketization, the price of industrial land has increased significantly, and land purchases among enterprises have become more competitive. ② Against the background of the reform, local governments tend to adopt listing as an alternative to negotiation, so as to attract investment from preferred enterprises. ③ Local governments tend to give state-owned and large or medium enterprises more subsidies by way of listing, which reduces the land purchase price for these enterprises. Based on the results, the market-oriented reform of land should be adhered to, and the selection mechanism of tender, auction, and listing transfer methods should be further standardized and refined. Besides, a variety of ways to meet the needs of enterprises for land use (such as lease first and then transfer) should be proposed to compensate for the existing insufficiency.

Dynamic Evolutionary Games and Coordination of Multiple Recycling Channels considering Online Recovery Platform

Nowadays, with a great number of household electrical appliances being discarded in every corner of the world every day, household electrical appliances recycling is attracting more attention. In this paper, we build a closed-loop supply chain that consists of a manufacturer and a third-party recycler based on the development of “Internet Plus” recovery platform. We thoroughly analyze the model and its evolution by chaos theory, complex dynamics theory, and numerical simulation and introduce the adaptive method to control the chaos of the system. We find that as the manufacturer increases the retail price, the stable area of the market becomes smaller. At the same time, when the manufacturers direct recycle price or the price adjustment range of the products recycled from the third party exceeds a certain threshold, all the recycle prices in the whole market will fluctuate, thus causing market chaos. Among them, as an adjustment decision method, delay strategy reduces the volatility of recycle price and makes it return to a stable state, which is an effective method to control system disorder. In addition, the third-party recycler will change the optimal subsidy model according to the government’s price subsidy level, while the manufacturer always prefers the price subsidy model.

Does Food Price Subsidy Affect Dietary Diversity? Evidence from South India

The present study has tried to address the impact of subsidised rice distribution through the public distribution system on dietary diversity and nutrition intake in the state of Tamil Nadu in India as the state is considered a pioneer in introducing a number of food security programmes in India. We used National Sample Survey Organisation’s data for the years 2004-05 and 2011-12, and the propensity score matching technique to estimate the actual impact of the subsidy programme on food consumption patterns and nutrient intake, as the data-set used for analysis was subjected to non-randomisation and selection bias. The estimated results reveal that the subsidy on rice has significantly and positively impacted food consumption and nutritional intake across households, irrespective of income groups. The increased purchasing power of the poor due to the subsidy is limited to the staple food commodities—rice, millets, pulses and vegetables—whereas middle- and high-income households are more likely to consume high-value commodities such as fruits, processed food and livestock products, with a resultant higher gain in fat and calcium. Our study indicates that extending the price subsidy to nutritious foods, besides rice can help the poor diversify their diets towards healthy and nutrient-rich foods. JEL Codes: C5, C54, D01, D11, D12, Q11, Q18

Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

For two decades, the Thai government has been promoting ethanol and biodiesel consumption through tax measures and price subsidies. Although this policy has substantially increased the consumption and production of biofuels, there is concern regarding its future fiscal burden. Due to fiscal constraints, the Thai government has planned to completely terminate the biofuel subsidy by 2022. This study aims at examining the economy-wide impacts of removing the biofuel subsidy and also conducting simulations of alternative scenarios, i.e., improving the yield of energy crops and reallocating the burden to expand capital investment in energy crop plantations. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used as the main quantitative method to conduct four simulation scenarios. This model was validated by comparing the simulation results with the actual 2015–2019 data and showed low values of root mean square error (RMSE). The simulation results indicate that solely terminating the price subsidy would lead to economy-wide contraction. Meanwhile, eliminating the price subsidy along with influencing crop yield improvement and expanding capital investment in energy crop plantations would lead to the lowest negative impacts. Therefore, the termination of the price subsidy should be simultaneously implemented with supply-side expansions.

Household green finances: demand in focus

Based on a retail questionnaire survey conducted in the framework of the BME-MNB cooperation we aimed to answer to the following main research questions: 1) how the households’ environmental and financial knowledge and attitudes are related to the demand for green financial products, 2) how significant (price) support shall be used to channel Hungarian consumers towards more sustainable financial products. In addition, we aimed to explore the households’ green and financial knowledge and attitudes. During the study, aggregate indices and indicators were created to study the main issues, which formed the basis of the analysis. The Hungarian population generally has a positive attitude towards environmental protection. Respondents tend to underestimate their green knowledge and their financial knowledge prudence. Education and financial literacy are also the most important in terms of financial and green knowledge and attitudes. Concerning personal green attitude, it can be said that the pragmatism provided by the financial possibilities is decisive in everyday life. Demand for financial products is most affected by pricing, green and financial knowledge indices, and age (demography). Based on the results, only a significant price subsidy could steer domestic consumers towards more sustainable financial products.