Purposes and duties in scientific modelling

More people than ever are paying attention to philosophical questions about epidemiological models, including their susceptibility to the influence of social and ethical values, sufficiency to inform policy decisions under certain conditions, and even their fundamental nature. One important question pertains to the purposes of epidemiological models, for example, are COVID-19 models for ‘prediction’ or ‘projection’? Are they adequate for making causal inferences? Is one of their goals, or virtues, to change individual responses to the pandemic? In this essay, we offer our perspective on these questions and place them in the context of other recent philosophical arguments about epidemiological models. We argue that clarifying the intended purpose of a model, and assessing its adequacy for that purpose, are moral-epistemic duties, responsibilities which pertain to knowledge but have moral significance nonetheless. This moral significance, we argue, stems from the inherent value-ladenness of models, along with the potential for models to be used in political decision making in ways that conflict with liberal values and which could lead to downstream harms. Increasing conversation about the moral significance of modelling, we argue, could help us to resist further eroding our standards of democratic scrutiny in the COVID-19 era.

Pigouvian vs. Coasian approach: Ideas, values, perspectives

The paper reveals the characteristics of competing approaches — Pigouvian and Coasian — to identify the grounds for state regulation. We outline the connections between Pigouvian and Coasian approaches with the values and prospects for their advancement in the field of political decision-making in the context of demand for economic knowledge and the possibilities of organizing compensating transactions. These connections are considered in the light of the externalities problem as one of the manifestations of market failure, as well as different internalization options. We also clarify the provisions from the theory of externalities in terms of their definition, classification and correlation with the conditions for optimal allocation of resources. The key types of structural alternatives for correcting market flaws are considered, and the main properties of the Pigouvian and Coasian approaches in economics, as they relate to the problem of market and government flaws, are determined. This helps explain why the Coasian approach cannot be considered synonymous with liberal fundamentalism. Finally, we indicate the relationship between normative conclusions and prospects of functionalism and two types of fundamentalism in the field of political decision-making. Using the example of intertemporal externalities, the difference in the approaches of Coasianism and Pigouvianism to their internalization is demonstrated.

Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management

The COVID-19 pandemic is permanently changing modern social and economic coexistence. Most governments have declared infection control to be their top priority while citizens face great restrictions on their civil rights. A pandemic is an exemplary scenario in which political actors must decide about future, and thus uncertain, events. This paper tries to present a tool well established in the field of entrepreneurial and management decision making which could also be a first benchmark for political decisions. Our approach builds on the standard epidemiological SEIR model in combination with simulation techniques used in risk management. By our case study we want to demonstrate the opportunities that risk management techniques, especially risk analyses using Monte Carlo simulation, can provide to policy makers in general, and in a public health crisis in particular. Hence, our case study can be used as a framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty. Overall, we want to point out that a health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. This is without prejudice to the integration of ethical considerations in the final political decision.

SAGE advice and political decision-making: ‘Following the science’ in times of epistemic uncertainty

This article presents a preliminary analysis of the advice provided by the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) held between 22 January and 23 March 2020 in response to the emerging coronavirus pandemic. Drawing on the published minutes of the group’s meetings, the article examines what was known and not known, the assumptions and working practices that shaped their work, and how this knowledge was reflected in the decisions made by the government. In doing so, the article critically examines what it means for policy making to be ‘led by the science’ when the best available science is provisional and uncertain. Using ideas of ‘externality’ and ‘evidential significance’, the article argues that the apparent desire for high levels of certainty by both scientists and political decision-makers made early action impossible as the data needed were not, and could not be, available in time. This leads to an argument for changes to the institutions that provide scientific advice based on sociologically informed expectations of science in which expert judgement plays a more significant role.

Personal or Impersonal Evaluations? Political Sophistication and Citizen Conceptions of the Democratic Process

An energetic scholarly debate discusses possible reforms of representative democracy. Some support participatory forms of democracy, others a more elite-driven or technocratic democracy. This study contributes to the growing literature on the subject by emphasizing political sophistication as a theoretically relevant predictor of attitudes to democracy: different models of democracy make different demands regarding the political sophistication of citizens. The analysis includes two dimensions and three measures of sophistication: personal sophistication measured as political knowledge and internal efficacy, and impersonal sophistication measured as assessment of others’ political competence. Using the 2011 Finnish National Election Study, we find that perceptions of the sophistication of others have a substantial impact on preferences for political decision-making, and that politically sophisticated people support representative democracy. The analysis shows that perceptions of others’ political competence, which has been largely neglected by previous research, is a both theoretically and empirically relevant predictor of preferences for political decision-making processes.

Institute of public associations in the system of human rights enforcement in Ukraine: constitutional and legal aspect

Purpose. The aim of the work is to analyze in the constitutional and legal aspects public associations as a constitutional institution of public nature, to determine its role and importance in the system of human rights enforcement in Ukraine, to clarify the peculiarities of formation and effective activities of this institution. Methodology. The methodology includes a comprehensive analysis and generalization of available scientific and theoretical material and the formulation of relevant conclusions and recommendations. The following methods of scientific reseach have been implemented: terminological, logical-semantic, functional, system-structural, logical-normative. Results. The study states that the driving force of a democratic, legal process is the growth of an active civil position, which is the basis for the formation of public associations, which are a basic component of civil society. The institute of public associations is an important component of the system of constitutional law of Ukraine. Involving citizens in political decision-making is one of the main principles of direct democracy. The focus is on improving the legal framework of the institute of public associations. Scientific novelty. The study has revealed that public associations, as institutions, should be an integral part of civil society in the formation of democracy; to introduce constitutional and legal mechanisms of interaction with the institution of public associations and to identify their real practical effectiveness for ensuring human rights and needs in society. Practical significance. The results of the study can be used in law-making and law enforcement activities during the functioning of the institution of public associations in the system of human rights.

Tackling Climate Change in China: A Hybrid Approach

This article argues that climate change policies should be designed as far as possible with the involvement of civil society at large, as it is an existential problem that concerns the whole of humanity. It is suggested that in the Chinese context, the legal system and political decision-making processes could better address climate change for example, through the participatory processes promoted by the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development 1992 and subsequent instruments. The article explores the possibility of adopting a hybrid approach in China by developing an interactive platform linking the relevant components of civil society in order to gather critical expertise and insights from the community as a whole. A hybrid approach would be directed at combining the current top-down approach with a bottom-up approach, which would potentially contribute to an increase in transparency and accountability in legislative and political decision-making processes to produce the best possible legal approaches and policy strategies for addressing climate change.

Internal variables affecting Iraqi political decision-making after the year 2003

The research aims to study the internal variables affecting the political system, namely the constitution, national and federal identity, and political parties. The research concluded that Iraq is going through severe political crises, which are: 1.The permanent Iraqi constitution of 2005 still carries multiple problems, the most important of which is the relationship between the center and the region, with the existence of quotas and consensus, and they are the basis for the failure of effective Iraqi political decision-making, and the absence of a social contract 2.The existence of chaos of political parties and the domination of large blocs in decision-making, which led to the marginalization of minorities and the loss of their rights. Keywords:occupation; decision – making ; Internal variables; federalism; Political quota