Purposes and duties in scientific modelling

More people than ever are paying attention to philosophical questions about epidemiological models, including their susceptibility to the influence of social and ethical values, sufficiency to inform policy decisions under certain conditions, and even their fundamental nature. One important question pertains to the purposes of epidemiological models, for example, are COVID-19 models for ‘prediction’ or ‘projection’? Are they adequate for making causal inferences? Is one of their goals, or virtues, to change individual responses to the pandemic? In this essay, we offer our perspective on these questions and place them in the context of other recent philosophical arguments about epidemiological models. We argue that clarifying the intended purpose of a model, and assessing its adequacy for that purpose, are moral-epistemic duties, responsibilities which pertain to knowledge but have moral significance nonetheless. This moral significance, we argue, stems from the inherent value-ladenness of models, along with the potential for models to be used in political decision making in ways that conflict with liberal values and which could lead to downstream harms. Increasing conversation about the moral significance of modelling, we argue, could help us to resist further eroding our standards of democratic scrutiny in the COVID-19 era.

Pigouvian vs. Coasian approach: Ideas, values, perspectives

The paper reveals the characteristics of competing approaches — Pigouvian and Coasian — to identify the grounds for state regulation. We outline the connections between Pigouvian and Coasian approaches with the values and prospects for their advancement in the field of political decision-making in the context of demand for economic knowledge and the possibilities of organizing compensating transactions. These connections are considered in the light of the externalities problem as one of the manifestations of market failure, as well as different internalization options. We also clarify the provisions from the theory of externalities in terms of their definition, classification and correlation with the conditions for optimal allocation of resources. The key types of structural alternatives for correcting market flaws are considered, and the main properties of the Pigouvian and Coasian approaches in economics, as they relate to the problem of market and government flaws, are determined. This helps explain why the Coasian approach cannot be considered synonymous with liberal fundamentalism. Finally, we indicate the relationship between normative conclusions and prospects of functionalism and two types of fundamentalism in the field of political decision-making. Using the example of intertemporal externalities, the difference in the approaches of Coasianism and Pigouvianism to their internalization is demonstrated.

The EU external policy and the 2015–2018 refugee relocation system in the light of historical institutionalism

The main research objective of the text is to analyse the refugee relocation system in the light of historical institutionalism in 2015–2018. Historical institutionalism refers to the interaction between European integration actors in the European Union system, analysed in retrospect from a documentary perspective. The time factor is particularly important, since it enables to follow the institutional process defined by EU norms, procedures and integration rules and their sequential impact on favoured treatment or disavowing of integration visions, preferences, needs and interests. In view of the above, the refugee relocation system proposed and introduced in the period 2015–2018 confirms the above research assumption that the political decision on relocation made by the European Commission and the European Council resulted in a relevant legal act adopted by the EU Council to regulate the issue. Although under the pressure of the situation Member States agreed, some of them began to contest the decisions later.

The Social and Political Significance of Technology-Driven Organisational Change: Discursive Battles to Frame, Define and Decide in ‘a Space of Points of View’

Struggles over new organisational technology are, almost without exception, studied inside organisations. This paper aims to advance our understanding of how technology is embedded in social forces and relations of power that reach beyond individual organisations. It examines the ongoing discursive struggles in public media outlets between consultant doctors and regional actors concerning a controversial electronic health record (EHR) system, called the Health Platform, which was implemented in 20 Danish hospitals. A theoretical framework inspired by Bourdieu’s understanding of discursive activity in a field subsumed in a multi-level and cultural understanding of framing is used to examine the interests connected to platform design and its organisational future states. It is demonstrated that winning the support of the public is pivotal in the construction of frames by both groups of actors in their efforts to define problems and solutions and, ultimately, influence a political decision concerning the platform’s future.

Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management

The COVID-19 pandemic is permanently changing modern social and economic coexistence. Most governments have declared infection control to be their top priority while citizens face great restrictions on their civil rights. A pandemic is an exemplary scenario in which political actors must decide about future, and thus uncertain, events. This paper tries to present a tool well established in the field of entrepreneurial and management decision making which could also be a first benchmark for political decisions. Our approach builds on the standard epidemiological SEIR model in combination with simulation techniques used in risk management. By our case study we want to demonstrate the opportunities that risk management techniques, especially risk analyses using Monte Carlo simulation, can provide to policy makers in general, and in a public health crisis in particular. Hence, our case study can be used as a framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty. Overall, we want to point out that a health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. This is without prejudice to the integration of ethical considerations in the final political decision.

How political and social attitude could help to fully adopt the circular economy concepts for national benefit? A comparative study

This comparative study shows how concepts like circular economy, innovation and competitiveness are understood, accepted and implemented in Romania and Serbia, countries with similar preoccupations for the European Union's recommendations and destiny. It is shown that the similar results obtained outline the lack of continuity in applying the resilient strategy for general development and the strategic role of investments as a pillar of modernisation. Building a resilient and modern society requires fundamental and complex changes in the political decision-makers attitude and people's civic behaviour, linked to the circular economy principles, the need for substantial investments in top innovative research, high-tech products, and adequate public policies of general interest.

SAGE advice and political decision-making: ‘Following the science’ in times of epistemic uncertainty

This article presents a preliminary analysis of the advice provided by the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) held between 22 January and 23 March 2020 in response to the emerging coronavirus pandemic. Drawing on the published minutes of the group’s meetings, the article examines what was known and not known, the assumptions and working practices that shaped their work, and how this knowledge was reflected in the decisions made by the government. In doing so, the article critically examines what it means for policy making to be ‘led by the science’ when the best available science is provisional and uncertain. Using ideas of ‘externality’ and ‘evidential significance’, the article argues that the apparent desire for high levels of certainty by both scientists and political decision-makers made early action impossible as the data needed were not, and could not be, available in time. This leads to an argument for changes to the institutions that provide scientific advice based on sociologically informed expectations of science in which expert judgement plays a more significant role.

The Challenges of Ukraine’s European Choice in the Context of the Kremlin’s Neo-Imperialist Policies During Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Presidency

This article attempts to analyse the situation in Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression and increasing pressure from the Kremlin towards Eastern European states. The armed confl ict taking place in Ukraine means that the geostrategic situation of Eastern Europe has changed. In this context, the Eastern Partnership, which was meant to be one of the key instruments shaping international relations with the states neighbouring the EU in the East, is quite often seen as an ineffective or even obsolete tool. There can be no doubt that the greatest problem for the Eastern Partnership is that the project is seen in geopolitical categories – thinking of the countries of the Eastern Partnership in the context of the necessity for them to choose between the European Union and Russia (listening to statements by the EU’s political decision-makers, it can often seem that those states have no other option). The key research question is whether we will be dealing with an assertive EU policy in tandem with current US policy, or whether there will be another reset in relations between the West and the Russian Federation.

Personal or Impersonal Evaluations? Political Sophistication and Citizen Conceptions of the Democratic Process

An energetic scholarly debate discusses possible reforms of representative democracy. Some support participatory forms of democracy, others a more elite-driven or technocratic democracy. This study contributes to the growing literature on the subject by emphasizing political sophistication as a theoretically relevant predictor of attitudes to democracy: different models of democracy make different demands regarding the political sophistication of citizens. The analysis includes two dimensions and three measures of sophistication: personal sophistication measured as political knowledge and internal efficacy, and impersonal sophistication measured as assessment of others’ political competence. Using the 2011 Finnish National Election Study, we find that perceptions of the sophistication of others have a substantial impact on preferences for political decision-making, and that politically sophisticated people support representative democracy. The analysis shows that perceptions of others’ political competence, which has been largely neglected by previous research, is a both theoretically and empirically relevant predictor of preferences for political decision-making processes.