The Impact of Economic Policy on the Business Cycle: Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from the U.S.

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-35
Author(s):  
Patrick Karawani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

scholarly journals The Business Cycle And Competition In The U.S. Brewing Industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig A. Gallet ◽  
Patricia J. Euzent
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Brewing Industry ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Demand Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; tab-stops: 4.5pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Batang;">Recent game-theoretic models of cartel behavior assess the sustainability of cooperation in the presence of demand fluctuations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Depending on the stochastic assumptions of demand, different outcomes are predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Accordingly, this paper investigates the effects of demand fluctuations on competition in the U.S. brewing industry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>The results show that competition among brewers is greater during periods associated with significant negative shocks to demand, lower observed demand, lower expected future industry profit, and lower advertising.</span></span></span></p>

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

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