The Impact of the Business Cycle on Market Sectors

2015 ◽  
pp. 105-121
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

Does business cycle heterogeneously impact on banks’ capital buffers, risk and financial stability in BRIC economies?

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050032
Author(s):  
Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq ◽  
Md. Nazmul Islam ◽  
Abdul Gaffar Khan ◽  
Md. Rostam Ali ◽  
Tanmay Biswas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
China And India ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
India And China

This paper revisited the relationship between capital buffers and risk adjustments by showing the impact of the business cycle. Empirically, we used an unbalanced panel dataset from 426 banks of the BRIC countries (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, and China) for the period 2007–2016. By using the two-step system GMM (2GMM), this study shows the results as: (i) capital buffers of Russia, India, and China behave counter-cyclically while it is pro-cyclical for Brazilian banks over the business cycle; (ii) in BRIC’s economy, credit risk, and bank financial stability is related to business cycle in counter and pro-cyclical fashion, respectively; (iii) capital buffers adjustment speed is the premier in China and India, shining banks accessibility to capital refill is much easier to Brazil and Russia. The adjustment speed is heterogeneous across countries; and (iv) financial stability in apex for the Chinese, Russian, and Indian banks apart from the Brazilian banks.

The role of non-formal lifelong learning at different points in the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Corrales-Herrero ◽  
Beatriz Rodríguez-Prado
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Lifelong Learning ◽  
Labour Market Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Market Situation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Despite the widely recognised importance of lifelong learning, there are mixed results on its causal economic impact. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how economic conditions change the composition of participants in non-formal lifelong learning and whether the business cycle is relevant for the impact of non-formal lifelong learning on employability. Design/methodology/approach Non-linear decomposition techniques and matching estimators based on multidimensional covariates are applied to the Spanish sample of the European Adult Education Survey. The analysis controls for background, human capital and personal traits and draws a distinction between unemployed and employed workers. Findings The results show major differences in the volume and composition of participants before and during the Great Recession. In addition, there is a business cycle dependence of the effectiveness of non-formal lifelong learning that varies with the individual labour market situation. While lifelong learning proves more effective for the unemployed in recessions, for the employed the impact is greater in expansions. Originality/value The paper provides new evidence on the scant results of the moderating effect of the business cycle on the impact of lifelong learning. The analysis is not restricted to training implemented within public programmes, but rather extends to any kind of non-formal lifelong learning undertaken by unemployed and employed workers. In this sense, the analysis provides information about the optimal moment to invest in lifelong learning from both the policymaker and individual as well as firm perspective.

scholarly journals The Shape of Eurozone’s Uncertainty: Its Impact and Predictive Value on GDP

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Nicola Mai ◽  
Oliver Mohr
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the euro area. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further.

scholarly journals Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Leiva-Leon
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simultaneous Inferences

AbstractThis paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and categorized into demand, supply and mix recessions. The impact of shocks originated in the housing market over the business cycle is also assessed, finding that recessions are usually accompanied by housing deflationary pressures, while expansions are mainly influenced by housing demand shocks, with the only exception occurred during the period surrounding the “Great Recession,” affected by expansionary housing supply shocks.

scholarly journals The “Family 500+” programme and female labour force participation in Poland. Demographic and economic determinants

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 24-43
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Bartosik ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Female Labour Supply ◽  
Family Responsibilities ◽  
Female Labour ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

The paper investigates the effect of child cash benefit “Family 500+” on the female labour supply in Poland, taking into account demographic and cyclical determinants. The study is based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Polish Central Statistical Office quarterly data. The analyses cover the period of 2016–2018. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the measure of labour supply. The analysis uses a counterfactual method to determine the impact of demographic and behavioural changes on female labour supply. To identify the causes of the economic inactivity of women (adopted by LFS), decomposition of the growth rate of economically inactive women is applied. The effect of the business cycle on female labour supply is analysed using OLS recursive regression. The study found that the LFPR of women aged 25–44 decreased after 2015. This was related to the cash transfers under the “Family 500+” programme and the increasing number of economically inactive women by reason of “family and household responsibilities”. At the same time, changes in the demographic structure contributed positively to the LFPR of women aged 25–44, while the business cycle did not have a significant impact on it. OLS recursive regression showed that in the 25–44 age group, the introduction of “Family 500+” coincided with changes in the relationships between the LFPR, the percentage of the “discouraged”, economically inactive women by reason of “family responsibilities” and the unemployment rate.

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