The Effect of the Regional “Income Tax Withholding Allowance” and “Social Security Premium Support” Programmes on Labour Outcomes in Turkey

This paper examines the employment effects of the “Income tax withholding allowance” and “Social security premium support” programmes implemented in Turkey in 2012. The programmes aim to provide incentives to firms and generate employment opportunities for groups in targeted regions in the Eastern part of Turkey. The analysis relies on detailed micro-level data derived by the Household Labour Force Survey in 2008–2016. We apply the difference-in-differences (DID) method, and we use as treated subjects the respondents located in the regions affected by the policy. Moreover, we propose the propensity score matching approach within the DID framework to reduce the possible selection bias. The findings show a positive impact of the programme on employment, wages, the number of working hours and labour force participation, but we find a negative effect on the probability of being employed in a permanent job for the treated group.

The Monetary Crisis of Lebanon

Above its traditional currency and debt crisis features, Lebanon’s ongoing crisis sheds the light on the inherent weakness of dollarized monetary systems. This crisis can be seen as a monetary crisis, as the country’s dollarized banking system’s liquidity and solvency problems led to the loss of the “moneyness” of its dollar denominated deposits. We analyze the different dimensions of this crisis and we make policy recommendations, inspired by the experience of the Argentine 2001–2002 convertibility crisis. Finally, we look into the redistributive implications of different conversion scenarios.

Market Structure and Bank Conduct in the MENA Region

The Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is witnessing a wave of bank consolidations, with many mega-mergers taking place in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These will result in creating large banks, reducing the number of market players and increasing market concentration; which is already high. A further increase in concentration may raise concerns about the resulting dominance of large banks and the consequences on their pricing behaviour. The interrelationships between market structure and pricing behaviour is summarised by the popular model of industrial economics called the structure–conduct–performance (SCP) model. Consequently, we test the prevalence of this model in a sample of 15 MENA banking sectors to detect the possible existence of an impact running particularly from the structure of banking markets to the pricing behaviour (power) of banks in order to predict a possible emergence of oligopolistic behaviour following bank consolidations. Using a two-stage least squares model, we found a positive and significant impact of market concentration on bank pricing, suggesting that an further increase in MENA banking markets’ concentration may boost banks pricing power and persuade them to increase their returns at the expense of their customers.

Determinants of Early Retirement in the UAE

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the retirement behavior of UAE nationals by understanding the socio-economic characteristics of early retirees and identifying the main determinants of early retirement. Accordingly, a survey study is created and deployed for current employees and retirees affiliated with Abu Dhabi Retirement and Pension Benefit Fund (ADRPBF). The survey was designed to reach 100 retirees and 200 currently active workers from those registered at the ADRPBF. The survey was conducted by employing the online survey method and face-to-face interviews. The total number of respondents is around 244, with a total response rate of 81.33%. Some factors related to the psychosocial work environment play a significant role in the early retirement decision of Emiratis. These factors are stress level, autonomy level and authority level at work. In addition to these, the level of work environment comfortability and life-work balance seem to also affect the early retirement decision. In general, the results indicate that higher the stress level, lower the level of autonomy and authority; higher the early retirement decision within the Emirati workforce. Last but not least, the likelihood of early retirement increases significantly if employees face a work-related health problem. Initiatives at the government and company level to adjust the working conditions for the capacity of elderly people shall be considered. Healthy living campaigns and sport programs might be launched to reduce work-related health problems and consequently early retirement. Our work is the first comprehensive study exploring the early retirement decision of the UAE nationals. One limitation of our study is the limited number of participants in the survey. Future work that will include a higher number of participants and supplementary questions to cover more job features (physical workload, other psychosocial factors) might be helpful.

Price and Income Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in Egypt: A Bound Test Approach

This paper provides short and long-run estimates of price and income elasticities of Egypt’s natural gas demand using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration over the period 1983–2015. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities, in absolute values, are greater than their counterparts in the short run. This result is due to the fact that consumers can modify their consumption habits and plans in the long run as a response to changes in the income or the price. Moreover, natural gas demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in price in both the short and long run. Finally, the study examines the causality relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth for the gas-consuming sectors in Egypt. The results indicate that there is no causal relationship between the two variables for the electricity, petroleum, and household sectors in the short-run. By contrast, there is a unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to the economic activity of the transportation sector and a unidirectional causality running from economic activity to natural gas consumption by the industry sector.

Financing Resources for Reconstruction in Severely Conflict-affected Countries

Countries emerging from armed conflict face tremendous challenges in restoring peace and development. One of the most serious challenges in this regard is mobilizing adequate resources for financing the reconstruction process. In many post-conflict countries, the resort to external financing resources becomes inevitable. This paper aims to understand how conflict intensity shapes the financing modalities in the post-conflict phase. The study uses statistical inference to compare the differences in key financing resources between two groups of post-conflict developing countries with different conflict intensity. The results show that countries severely affected by the conflict rely more heavily on external financing resources compared to countries moderately affected by the conflict. In particular, foreign aid, foreign investments, and external debt were significantly higher in the severely affected countries relative to moderately affected ones. The differences in most external financing resources between the two groups become more obvious when accounting for major income categories differences. The results were robust for different levels of conflict severity.

SME Financing in MENA: A Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Multilateral and Bilateral Development Lenders’ Intermediated Lending Practices

This paper documents for the first time the considerable increase of bilateral and multilateral financial institutions’ support to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), following the political unrest and civil strife across the region since 2011. Focusing upon intermediated lending, the main financing channel, it assesses the underlying economic logic and implementation of this kind of SME financing. It is found that SMEs’ contribution to economic development is insufficiently well understood and, to some extent, has been misinterpreted, which implies that development banks’ lending operations lack appropriate targeting to achieve economic and social lending objectives. A review of the academic literature on financial exclusion and development finance, moreover, concludes that the lenders’ reliance upon large, often foreign-owned, commercial banks is not likely to achieve the desired developmental impact.