scholarly journals Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Moise ◽  
Doudou Batumbo ◽  
Mélody Aude Achille ◽  
Bertiny Bourdeau ◽  
Stanislas Rebaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Diarrheal Diseases ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Continuous Presence

Abstract Introduction Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the epidemiology of cholera in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour and Croix-des- Bouquets) in 2017 and assess the spatiotemporal influence of patron saint festivities on cholera incidence in communal sections.Materials/Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates.Results In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density at the communal sections, the patronal festivities significantly reduced the annual incidence of cholera by 57.23%. The probability of occurrence of cholera cases one week after patronal festivities decreased by 25.41%.Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the occurrence of patronal festivities in communal sections and a reduced probability of subsequent outbreaks. Although further assessments are necessary, these findings suggest an impactful prevention and response strategy around the festivities in 2017.

scholarly journals Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Moise ◽  
Aude Mélody Achille ◽  
Doudou Batumbo ◽  
Bertiny Bourdeau ◽  
Stanislas Rebaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Diarrheal Diseases ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Continuous Presence ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Introduction Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Materials/Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities. Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti 2017.

scholarly journals Impact of patron saint festivities on cholera in three communes in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Moise ◽  
Aude Mélody Achille ◽  
Doudou Batumbo ◽  
Bertiny Bourdeau ◽  
Stanislas Rebaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Diarrheal Diseases ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Continuous Presence ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and 2 weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results In total, 3633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR = 0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798–0.6193), p = 0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% 1 week following patronal festivities. Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

scholarly journals Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Moise ◽  
Aude Mélody Achille ◽  
Doudou Batumbo ◽  
Bertiny Bourdeau ◽  
Stanislas Rebaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Diarrheal Diseases ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Continuous Presence ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Introduction: Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Materials/Methods: An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results: In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities. Conclusion: This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

scholarly journals Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Moise ◽  
Aude Mélody Achille ◽  
Doudou Batumbo ◽  
Bertiny Bourdeau ◽  
Stanislas Rebaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Diarrheal Diseases ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Continuous Presence ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017.Methods: An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates.Results: In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities.Conclusion: This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

scholarly journals The New Bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Distribution Obtained by the Crossing Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Rufin Bidounga ◽  
Evrand Giles Brunel Mandangui Maloumbi ◽  
Réolie Foxie Mizélé Kitoti ◽  
Dominique Mizère
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Generating Functions ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Double Series ◽  
Bivariate Distribution ◽  
Probability Generating Functions ◽  
Bivariate Poisson Distribution ◽  
Bivariate Function

Kimberly et al. had proposed in 2016 a bivariate function as a bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution (COM-Poisson) using the generalized bivariate Poisson distribution and the probability generating functions of the follow distributions: bivariate bernoulli, bivariate Poisson, bivariate geometric and bivariate binomial. By examining this paper we have shown that this bivariate function is constant and it double series is divergent, when it should have been 1. To overcome this deadlock, we propose a new bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which is definetely a probability distribution based on the crossing method, method highlighted by Elion et al. in 2016 and revisited by Batsindila et al. and Mandangui et al. in 2019. And this is the purpose of this paper. To this bivariate distribution is attached two generalized linear models (GLM) whose resolution allows us to highlight, not only the independence between the variables forming the couple, but also the effect of the factors (or predictors) on these variables. The resulting correlation is negative, zero or positive depending on the values of a parameter; in particular for the bivariate Poisson distribution according to Berkhout and Plug. A simulation of data will be given at the end of the article to illustrate the model.

scholarly journals Exact Credibility and Tweedie Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esbjörn Ohlsson ◽  
Björn Johansson
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Compound Poisson Distribution ◽  
Compound Poisson

Kaas, Dannenburg & Goovaerts (1997) generalized Jewell’s theorem on exact credibility, from the classical Bühlmann model to the (weighted) Bühlmann-Straub model. We extend this result further to the “Bühlmann-Straub model with a priori differences” (Bühlmann & Gisler, 2005). It turns out that exact credibility holds for a class of Tweedie models, including the Poisson, gamma and compound Poisson distribution – the most important distributions for insurance applications of generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results can also be viewed as an alternative to the HGLM approach for combining credibility and GLMs, see Nelder and Verrall (1997).

scholarly journals glmGamPoi: Fitting Gamma-Poisson Generalized Linear Models on Single Cell Count Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantin Ahlmann-Eltze ◽  
Wolfgang Huber
Keyword(s):  
Single Cell ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Differential Expression Analysis ◽  
Source Code ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
R Package ◽  
Single Cell Rna Sequencing

Abstract Motivation The Gamma-Poisson distribution is a theoretically and empirically motivated model for the sampling variability of single cell RNA-sequencing counts (Grün et al., 2014; Svensson, 2020; Silverman et al., 2018; Hafemeister and Satija, 2019) and an essential building block for analysis approaches including differential expression analysis (Robinson et al., 2010; McCarthy et al., 2012; Anders and Huber, 2010; Love et al., 2014), principal component analysis (Townes et al., 2019) and factor analysis (Risso et al., 2018). Existing implementations for inferring its parameters from data often struggle with the size of single cell datasets, which can comprise millions of cells; at the same time, they do not take full advantage of the fact that zero and other small numbers are frequent in the data. These limitations have hampered uptake of the model, leaving room for statistically inferior approaches such as logarithm(-like) transformation. Results We present a new R package for fitting the Gamma-Poisson distribution to data with the characteristics of modern single cell datasets more quickly and more accurately than existing methods. The software can work with data on disk without having to load them into RAM simultaneously. Availability The package glmGamPoi is available from Bioconductor for Windows, macOS, and Linux, and source code is available on github.com/const-ae/glmGamPoi under a GPL-3 license.

scholarly journals Exact Credibility and Tweedie Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (01) ◽  
pp. 121-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esbjörn Ohlsson ◽  
Björn Johansson
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Compound Poisson Distribution ◽  
Compound Poisson

Kaas, Dannenburg & Goovaerts (1997) generalized Jewell’s theorem on exact credibility, from the classical Bühlmann model to the (weighted) Bühlmann-Straub model. We extend this result further to the “Bühlmann-Straub model with a priori differences” (Bühlmann & Gisler, 2005). It turns out that exact credibility holds for a class of Tweedie models, including the Poisson, gamma and compound Poisson distribution – the most important distributions for insurance applications of generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results can also be viewed as an alternative to the HGLM approach for combining credibility and GLMs, see Nelder and Verrall (1997).

scholarly journals glmGamPoi: Fitting Gamma-Poisson Generalized Linear Models on Single Cell Count Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantin Ahlmann-Eltze ◽  
Wolfgang Huber
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Single Cell ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Differential Expression Analysis ◽  
Source Code ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Single Cell Rna Sequencing

AbstractMotivationThe Gamma-Poisson distribution is a theoretically and empirically motivated model for the sampling variability of single cell RNA-sequencing counts (Grün et al., 2014; Townes et al., 2019; Svensson, 2020; Silverman et al., 2018; Hafemeister and Satija, 2019) and an essential building block for analysis approaches including differential expression analysis (Robinson et al., 2010; McCarthy et al., 2012; Anders and Huber, 2010; Love et al., 2014), principal component analysis (Townes et al., 2019) and factor analysis (Risso et al., 2018). Existing implementations for inferring its parameters from data often struggle with the size of single cell datasets, which typically comprise thousands or millions of cells; at the same time, they do not take full advantage of the fact that zero and other small numbers are frequent in the data. These limitations have hampered uptake of the model, leaving room for statistically inferior approaches such as logarithm(-like) transformation.ResultsWe present a new R package for fitting the Gamma-Poisson distribution to data with the characteristics of modern single cell datasets more quickly and more accurately than existing methods. The software can work with data on disk without having to load them into RAM simultaneously.AvailabilityThe package glmGamPoi is available from Bioconductor (since release 3.11) for Windows, macOS, and Linux, and source code is available on GitHub under a GPL-3 license. The scripts to reproduce the results of this paper are available on GitHub as [email protected]

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