Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

Abstract Introduction: Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Materials/Methods: An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results: In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities. Conclusion: This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

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Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

10.21203/rs.3.rs-28562/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kenny Moise ◽

Aude Mélody Achille ◽

Doudou Batumbo ◽

Bertiny Bourdeau ◽

Stanislas Rebaudet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Linear Models ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Diarrheal Diseases ◽

Patron Saint ◽

Continuous Presence ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Introduction Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Materials/Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities. Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti 2017.

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Impact of patron saint festivities on cholera in three communes in Haiti

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-020-09601-9 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Kenny Moise ◽

Aude Mélody Achille ◽

Doudou Batumbo ◽

Bertiny Bourdeau ◽

Stanislas Rebaudet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Linear Models ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Diarrheal Diseases ◽

Patron Saint ◽

Continuous Presence ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and 2 weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results In total, 3633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR = 0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798–0.6193), p = 0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% 1 week following patronal festivities. Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

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Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

10.21203/rs.3.rs-28562/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kenny Moise ◽

Aude Mélody Achille ◽

Doudou Batumbo ◽

Bertiny Bourdeau ◽

Stanislas Rebaudet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Linear Models ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Diarrheal Diseases ◽

Patron Saint ◽

Continuous Presence ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background: Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017.Methods: An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates.Results: In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities.Conclusion: This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

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Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

10.21203/rs.3.rs-28562/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kenny Moise ◽

Doudou Batumbo ◽

Mélody Aude Achille ◽

Bertiny Bourdeau ◽

Stanislas Rebaudet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Linear Models ◽

Response Strategy ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Diarrheal Diseases ◽

Patron Saint ◽

Continuous Presence

Abstract Introduction Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the epidemiology of cholera in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour and Croix-des- Bouquets) in 2017 and assess the spatiotemporal influence of patron saint festivities on cholera incidence in communal sections.Materials/Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates.Results In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density at the communal sections, the patronal festivities significantly reduced the annual incidence of cholera by 57.23%. The probability of occurrence of cholera cases one week after patronal festivities decreased by 25.41%.Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the occurrence of patronal festivities in communal sections and a reduced probability of subsequent outbreaks. Although further assessments are necessary, these findings suggest an impactful prevention and response strategy around the festivities in 2017.

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The Relationships Between Serum DHEA-S and AMH Levels in Infertile Women: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10061211 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 1211

Author(s):

Li-Te Lin ◽

Kuan-Hao Tsui

Keyword(s):

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Large Scale ◽

Linear Models ◽

Positive Association ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Dehydroepiandrosterone Sulphate ◽

Sectional Study ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Infertile Women ◽

The Relationship

The relationship between serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEA-S) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels has not been fully established. Therefore, we performed a large-scale cross-sectional study to investigate the association between serum DHEA-S and AMH levels. The study included a total of 2155 infertile women aged 20 to 46 years who were divided into four quartile groups (Q1 to Q4) based on serum DHEA-S levels. We found that there was a weak positive association between serum DHEA-S and AMH levels in infertile women (r = 0.190, p < 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, serum DHEA-S levels positively correlated with serum AMH levels in infertile women (β = 0.103, p < 0.001). Infertile women in the highest DHEA-S quartile category (Q4) showed significantly higher serum AMH levels (p < 0.001) compared with women in the lowest DHEA-S quartile category (Q1). The serum AMH levels significantly increased across increasing DHEA-S quartile categories in infertile women (p = 0.014) using generalized linear models after adjustment for potential confounders. Our data show that serum DHEA-S levels are positively associated with serum AMH levels.

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Relationship between Cycling Infrastructure and Transportation Cycling in a Small Urban Area

Future Transportation ◽

10.3390/futuretransp1010007 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 99-112

Author(s):

Richard Larouche ◽

Nimesh Patel ◽

Jennifer L. Copeland

Keyword(s):

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Qualitative Data ◽

Linear Models ◽

The Other ◽

Small City ◽

The Road ◽

The Past ◽

Low Prevalence ◽

The Relationship

The role of infrastructure in encouraging transportation cycling in smaller cities with a low prevalence of cycling remains unclear. To investigate the relationship between the presence of infrastructure and transportation cycling in a small city (Lethbridge, AB, Canada), we interviewed 246 adults along a recently-constructed bicycle boulevard and two comparison streets with no recent changes in cycling infrastructure. One comparison street had a separate multi-use path and the other had no cycling infrastructure. Questions addressed time spent cycling in the past week and 2 years prior and potential socio-demographic and psychosocial correlates of cycling, including safety concerns. Finally, we asked participants what could be done to make cycling safer and more attractive. We examined predictors of cycling using gender-stratified generalized linear models. Women interviewed along the street with a separate path reported cycling more than women on the other streets. A more favorable attitude towards cycling and greater habit strength were associated with more cycling in both men and women. Qualitative data revealed generally positive views about the bicycle boulevard, a need for education about sharing the road and for better cycling infrastructure in general. Our results suggest that, even in smaller cities, cycling infrastructure may encourage cycling, especially among women.

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The New Bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Distribution Obtained by the Crossing Method

International Journal of Statistics and Probability ◽

10.5539/ijsp.v9n6p1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Rufin Bidounga ◽

Evrand Giles Brunel Mandangui Maloumbi ◽

Réolie Foxie Mizélé Kitoti ◽

Dominique Mizère

Keyword(s):

Probability Distribution ◽

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Generating Functions ◽

Linear Models ◽

Double Series ◽

Bivariate Distribution ◽

Probability Generating Functions ◽

Bivariate Poisson Distribution ◽

Bivariate Function

Kimberly et al. had proposed in 2016 a bivariate function as a bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution (COM-Poisson) using the generalized bivariate Poisson distribution and the probability generating functions of the follow distributions: bivariate bernoulli, bivariate Poisson, bivariate geometric and bivariate binomial. By examining this paper we have shown that this bivariate function is constant and it double series is divergent, when it should have been 1. To overcome this deadlock, we propose a new bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which is definetely a probability distribution based on the crossing method, method highlighted by Elion et al. in 2016 and revisited by Batsindila et al. and Mandangui et al. in 2019. And this is the purpose of this paper. To this bivariate distribution is attached two generalized linear models (GLM) whose resolution allows us to highlight, not only the independence between the variables forming the couple, but also the effect of the factors (or predictors) on these variables. The resulting correlation is negative, zero or positive depending on the values of a parameter; in particular for the bivariate Poisson distribution according to Berkhout and Plug. A simulation of data will be given at the end of the article to illustrate the model.

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Relationship among atrial fibrillation, the CHA2DS2-VASc score and ischaemic stroke in patients with coronary artery disease: a propensity score matching study in Hebei, China

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders ◽

10.1186/s12872-021-02276-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Boqun Shi ◽

Demin Liu ◽

Qian Wang ◽

Xue Geng ◽

Qian Hou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ischaemic Stroke ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Linear Models ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Sectional Study ◽

Stroke Patients ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Stroke Group ◽

Artery Disease ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background Recent evidence has shown that the pathogenesis of ischaemic stroke associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex and involves other factors in addition to arrhythmias. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship among AF, CHA2DS2-VASc score and ischaemic stroke in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) in Hebei, China. Methods A total of 2,335 patients with CAD from September 2016 to May 2019 at the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University were included (mean age 62.73 ± 10.35 years, range 26–92 years; 41.58% female). This was a cross-sectional study, and participants were divided into non-stroke (n = 1997) and ischaemic stroke groups (n = 338). Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to match ischaemic stroke patients with non-stroke patients in a 1:4 ratio. The relationship among AF, the CHA2DS2-VASc score and ischaemic stroke was evaluated using univariable generalized linear models for different sex, age, body mass index (BMI), CAD and CHA2DS2-VASc score subgroups. Univariable and multivariable generalized linear models were used to evaluate the relationship between AF and ischaemic stroke in the different models. Results Compared with that in the non-stroke group, the prevalence of AF (8.81% vs. 14.20%, P = 0.002) in the ischaemic stroke group was higher. The proportion of patients with ischaemic stroke was significantly different between the AF group and the non-AF group (28.74% vs. 19.04%, P = 0.003). An increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with a gradual increase in the prevalence of AF (P for trend < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that the trend towards increased stroke risk in the AF group was consistent across the various subgroups. The multivariable analysis demonstrated that AF was not associated with ischaemic stroke compared with the absence of AF (OR = 1.55, 95% CI 0.94–2.56, P = 0.087). Conclusion In our cross-sectional study, after adjustment for confounding factors, there was no association between AF and ischaemic stroke. The increased risk of ischaemic stroke associated with AF was attenuated by atherosclerotic factors. Our study supports the current view that enhanced control of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in patients with AF is essential.

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Testing the differences of LT50, LD50, or ED50

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/cjfr-2017-0377 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 48 (6) ◽

pp. 729-734 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Juha Lappi ◽

Jaana Luoranen

Keyword(s):

Approximate Method ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Mixed Models ◽

Logistic Model ◽

Linear Models ◽

Generalized Linear Mixed Models ◽

Wald Test ◽

Delta Method ◽

Treatment Variable ◽

The Relationship

An approximate method is derived for testing the differences of LT50, LD50, or ED50, which indicate the temperature or dose needed to kill or damage half of the plants, respectively. It is assumed that a logistic model is used to describe the relationship between probability and a treatment variable in the framework of generalized linear mixed models or generalized linear models. The method is based on the delta method and the Wald test. In the forest sciences, this method can be used when dose, temperature, or time responses are compared in different treatments, cultivars, or origins.

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Exact Credibility and Tweedie Models

Astin Bulletin ◽

10.1017/s0515036100014422 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 36 (1) ◽

pp. 121-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Esbjörn Ohlsson ◽

Björn Johansson

Keyword(s):

Poisson Distribution ◽

Generalized Linear Models ◽

Linear Models ◽

A Priori ◽

Compound Poisson Distribution ◽

Compound Poisson

Kaas, Dannenburg & Goovaerts (1997) generalized Jewell’s theorem on exact credibility, from the classical Bühlmann model to the (weighted) Bühlmann-Straub model. We extend this result further to the “Bühlmann-Straub model with a priori differences” (Bühlmann & Gisler, 2005). It turns out that exact credibility holds for a class of Tweedie models, including the Poisson, gamma and compound Poisson distribution – the most important distributions for insurance applications of generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results can also be viewed as an alternative to the HGLM approach for combining credibility and GLMs, see Nelder and Verrall (1997).

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