scholarly journals Cross-validated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER SALAZAR
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
San Salvador ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Spectral Accelerations

Abstract We propose a cross-validated seismic hazard (CVSH) method contrasting time-independent and dependent models via the Poisson and Weibull probability cumulative distributions. Based on the upper-limit spectral accelerations retrieved from the time-dependent models, we infer that in the memoryless Poisson approach, the selected lifetime of buildings is location-dependent rather than a fixed classical value of 50 years for all sites. All models compute the seismic hazard for magnitudes M 5-7.83 by the influence of the interface subduction zone in El Salvador at three locations, the Capital City San Salvador, the Port of Acajutla on the coastline, and Arcatao Town in the North of the country returning average spectral accelerations with less than 10% differences in all cases.

A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽  
David A. Rhoades ◽  
Graeme H. McVerry
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

scholarly journals Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 743-753
Author(s):  
Yu-Sheng Sun ◽  
Hsien-Chi Li ◽  
Ling-Yun Chang ◽  
Zheng-Kai Ye ◽  
Chien-Chih Chen
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Abstract. Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in this study in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. Real-time PSHA follows the traditional PSHA framework, but the statistic occurrence rate is substituted by time-dependent seismic source probability. Over the last decade, the pattern informatics (PI) method has been developed as a time-dependent probability model of seismic source. We employed this method as a function of time-dependent seismic source probability, and we selected two major earthquakes in Taiwan as examples to explore real-time PSHA. These are the Meinong earthquake (ML 6.6) of 5 February 2016 and the Hualien earthquake (ML 6.2) of 6 February 2018. The seismic intensity maps produced by the real-time PSHA method facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real ground motion data from the P-alert network, our seismic intensity forecasting maps showed considerable effectiveness. This result indicated that real-time PSHA is practicable and provides useful information that could be employed in the prevention of earthquake disasters.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Arias Intensity in the North–South Seismic Belt of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Xuejing ◽  
Weijin Xu ◽  
Mengtan Gao
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Motion Model ◽  
Seismic Belt ◽  
Arias Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
Ground Motion Model

ABSTRACT Arias intensity (IA), as an important seismic parameter, which contains the information of amplitude, frequencies, and duration of ground motion, plays a crucial role in characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake-induced landslides. In this article, we conducted probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) based on IA in China’s north–south seismic belt. We adopted the seismic sources and seismicity parameters used in the fifth generation of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China, and two ground-motion model of IA. The results show that the values of IA are greater than 0.11 m/s in most regions of the north–south seismic belt. The provincial capital cities and most prefecture-level cities in the seismic zone are located in the region with IA-values greater than 0.32 m/s. The values of IA are above 0.54 m/s in the region around the main fault zone. This means that the north–south seismic belt is prone to extremely high-seismic hazard, particularly earthquake-induced landslides. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the evaluation and prevention of earthquake-induced landslides in this area. As we have found significant differences in the values of IA calculated from different ground-motion model, it is necessary to study the ground-motion model of IA for the western geological environment of China. In addition, the PSHA based on IA gives more consideration to the influence of large earthquakes than that based on peak ground acceleration. Therefore, IA plays an important role in seismic design of major engineering projects. The results of this article are of great scientific significance for understanding the seismic hazard of the north–south seismic belt.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 1: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis along the pipeline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Slejko ◽  
A. Rebez ◽  
M. Santulin ◽  
J. Garcia-Pelaez ◽  
D. Sandron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
The North

AbstractThe design of critical facilities needs a targeted computation of the expected ground motion levels. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) is the pipeline that transports natural gas from the Greek-Turkish border, through Greece and Albania, to Italy. We present here the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that we performed for this facility, and the deaggregation of the results, aiming to identify the dominant seismic sources for a selected site along the Albanian coast, where one of the two main compressor stations is located. PSHA is based on an articulated logic tree of twenty branches, consisting of two models for source, seismicity, estimation of the maximum magnitude, and ground motion. The area with the highest hazard occurs along the Adriatic coast of Albania (PGA between 0.8 and 0.9 g on rock for a return period of 2475 years), while strong ground motions are also expected to the north of Thessaloniki, Kavala, in the southern Alexandroupolis area, as well as at the border between Greece and Turkey. The earthquakes contributing most to the hazard of the test site at high and low frequencies (1 and 5 Hz) and the corresponding design events for the TAP infrastructure have been identified as local quakes with MW 6.6 and 6.0, respectively.

Using new models to assess probabilistic seismic hazard of the North–South Seismic Zone in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 659-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changlong Li ◽  
Weijin Xu ◽  
Jian Wu ◽  
Mengtan Gao
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
The North ◽  
New Models

scholarly journals Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1143-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-H. Chan ◽  
Y.-M. Wu ◽  
C.-T. Cheng ◽  
P.-S. Lin ◽  
Y.-C. Wu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seismicity Rate

Abstract. Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

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