Using new models to assess probabilistic seismic hazard of the North–South Seismic Zone in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 659-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changlong Li ◽  
Weijin Xu ◽  
Jian Wu ◽  
Mengtan Gao
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
The North ◽  
New Models

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Arias Intensity in the North–South Seismic Belt of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Xuejing ◽  
Weijin Xu ◽  
Mengtan Gao
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Motion Model ◽  
Seismic Belt ◽  
Arias Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
Ground Motion Model

ABSTRACT Arias intensity (IA), as an important seismic parameter, which contains the information of amplitude, frequencies, and duration of ground motion, plays a crucial role in characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake-induced landslides. In this article, we conducted probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) based on IA in China’s north–south seismic belt. We adopted the seismic sources and seismicity parameters used in the fifth generation of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China, and two ground-motion model of IA. The results show that the values of IA are greater than 0.11 m/s in most regions of the north–south seismic belt. The provincial capital cities and most prefecture-level cities in the seismic zone are located in the region with IA-values greater than 0.32 m/s. The values of IA are above 0.54 m/s in the region around the main fault zone. This means that the north–south seismic belt is prone to extremely high-seismic hazard, particularly earthquake-induced landslides. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the evaluation and prevention of earthquake-induced landslides in this area. As we have found significant differences in the values of IA calculated from different ground-motion model, it is necessary to study the ground-motion model of IA for the western geological environment of China. In addition, the PSHA based on IA gives more consideration to the influence of large earthquakes than that based on peak ground acceleration. Therefore, IA plays an important role in seismic design of major engineering projects. The results of this article are of great scientific significance for understanding the seismic hazard of the north–south seismic belt.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Mohindra ◽  
Anand K. S. Nair ◽  
Sushil Gupta ◽  
Ujjwal Sur ◽  
Vladimir Sokolov
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Source Zones ◽  
Stochastic Event

A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years) ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 1: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis along the pipeline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Slejko ◽  
A. Rebez ◽  
M. Santulin ◽  
J. Garcia-Pelaez ◽  
D. Sandron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
The North

AbstractThe design of critical facilities needs a targeted computation of the expected ground motion levels. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) is the pipeline that transports natural gas from the Greek-Turkish border, through Greece and Albania, to Italy. We present here the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that we performed for this facility, and the deaggregation of the results, aiming to identify the dominant seismic sources for a selected site along the Albanian coast, where one of the two main compressor stations is located. PSHA is based on an articulated logic tree of twenty branches, consisting of two models for source, seismicity, estimation of the maximum magnitude, and ground motion. The area with the highest hazard occurs along the Adriatic coast of Albania (PGA between 0.8 and 0.9 g on rock for a return period of 2475 years), while strong ground motions are also expected to the north of Thessaloniki, Kavala, in the southern Alexandroupolis area, as well as at the border between Greece and Turkey. The earthquakes contributing most to the hazard of the test site at high and low frequencies (1 and 5 Hz) and the corresponding design events for the TAP infrastructure have been identified as local quakes with MW 6.6 and 6.0, respectively.

scholarly journals Cross-validated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER SALAZAR
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
San Salvador ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Spectral Accelerations

Abstract We propose a cross-validated seismic hazard (CVSH) method contrasting time-independent and dependent models via the Poisson and Weibull probability cumulative distributions. Based on the upper-limit spectral accelerations retrieved from the time-dependent models, we infer that in the memoryless Poisson approach, the selected lifetime of buildings is location-dependent rather than a fixed classical value of 50 years for all sites. All models compute the seismic hazard for magnitudes M 5-7.83 by the influence of the interface subduction zone in El Salvador at three locations, the Capital City San Salvador, the Port of Acajutla on the coastline, and Arcatao Town in the North of the country returning average spectral accelerations with less than 10% differences in all cases.

scholarly journals SEISMICITY PATTERNS FOR A DETAILED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC ZONING OF THE NORTH OSSETIA-ALANIA TERRITORY

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ю.К. Чернов ◽  
В.Б. Заалишвили ◽  
Б.В. Дзеранов
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Zoning ◽  
Local Seismicity ◽  
The North ◽  
Detailed Seismic Zoning

В рамках исследований по созданию нового альбома вероятностных карт детального сейсмического районирования территории РСО-Алания разработан ряд моделей региональной и локальной сейсмичности района. Модели в вероятностной форме описывают места (зоны) возникновения потенциально опасных для изучаемой территории землетрясений, максимальные возможные магнитуды этих землетрясений, размеры, механизмы и ориентацию очагов, повторяемость землетрясений разных магнитуд во времени, распределение очагов землетрясений по глубине. Исследования проведены с использованием большого объема сейсмостатистических, макросейсмических, сейсмотектонических, инструментальных и других данных. Модели позволяют повысить точность и детальность прогнозных оценок на региональном и локальном уровнях, т.к. более полно учитывают особенности пространственно-временного распределения потенциально опасных очагов землетрясений, а также представляют итоговую информацию в виде, необходимом для ее дальнейшего включения в вероятностный анализ сейсмической опасности (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis – PSHA) A number of models of regional and local seismicity of the region have been developed within the framework of research on the creation of a new album of probabilistic maps of detailed seismic zoning of the RNO-Alania territory. Models in probabilistic form describe the place (zone) of occurrence of potentially dangerous earthquakes for the study area, the maximum possible magnitude of these earthquakes, the size, mechanisms and orientation of the foci, the frequency of earthquakes of different magnitudes in time, the distribution of earthquake foci in depth. Research conducted using large volume seismostatistics, macroseismic, seismotectonic, instrumental and other data. The models make it possible to increase the accuracy and detail of predictive estimates at the regional and local levels, as they take into account more fully the features of the spatial and temporal distribution of potentially dangerous earthquake foci, and also provide the final information in the form necessary for its further inclusion in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis – PSHA.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Shanxi Rift System, North China

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-153
Author(s):  
Bin Li ◽  
Mathilde Bøttger Sørensen ◽  
Kuvvet Atakan ◽  
Yanrong Li ◽  
Zihong Li
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Rift System ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Local Site Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Site ◽  
Shanxi Rift

ABSTRACT We present the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically for the Shanxi rift system, north China, which has been defined as one of the areas of highest seismic hazard and risk in China in recent decades. We applied a Monte Carlo-based approach to PSHA, based on so far the most complete earthquake catalog available, a detailed zonation considering both seismicity distribution and local tectonic features, a logic tree of carefully selected ground-motion prediction equations, as well as a cautious consideration of actual local site effects for this region. Both areal sources (for Ms<6.0) and fault sources (for Ms≥6.0) were considered, and a synthetic earthquake catalog was generated through Monte Carlo simulation. A logic tree was applied to represent the epistemic uncertainty related to attenuation models for the rift system. Actual local site effects were incorporated and the stability of the results was also tested in this study. Our results show that nearly the entire rift system faces a significant seismic hazard and associated high seismic risk, as more than 80% of the population and the main economical infrastructure of Shanxi are concentrated here. The highest hazard is found in the areas around the north margin of Tianzhen fault and the north segment of Hengshan fault in the north, and in the Linfen basin and the area around Zhongtiaoshan fault in the south of the rift system. Our results are comparable to, but a refinement of, the results of previous probabilistic seismic hazard studies in the region. Deaggregation of seismic hazard for five large cities in the rift system indicates that the seismic hazard is most contributed by the nearby sources. Results obtained in this study provide a better understanding of the seismic hazard in the Shanxi rift system and can thereby help guiding earthquake risk mitigation in the future.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the North Balkan region

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. W. Musson
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
The North ◽  
Seismic Source Model

A set of seismic hazard maps, expressed as horizontal peak ground acceleration, have been computed for a large area of Central and Eastern Europe covering the North Balkan area (Former Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania). These are based on: a) a compound earthquake catalogue for the region; b) a seismic source model of 50 zones compiled on the basis of tectonic divisions and seismicity, and c) a probabilistic methodology using stochastic (Monte Carlo) modelling. It is found that the highest hazard in the region comes from intermediate focus earthquakes occurring in the Vrancea seismic zone; here the hazard exceeds 0.4 g at return periods of 475 years. Special account has been taken of the directional nature of attenuation from this source.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

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