Error Statistics of Time-Delay Embedding Prediction on Chaotic Time Series

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua T. Wood
1989 ◽  
Vol 142 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 107-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Liebert ◽  
H.G. Schuster

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 221
Author(s):  
Mariano Matilla-García ◽  
Isidro Morales ◽  
Jose Miguel Rodríguez ◽  
Manuel Ruiz Marín

The modeling and prediction of chaotic time series require proper reconstruction of the state space from the available data in order to successfully estimate invariant properties of the embedded attractor. Thus, one must choose appropriate time delay τ∗ and embedding dimension p for phase space reconstruction. The value of τ∗ can be estimated from the Mutual Information, but this method is rather cumbersome computationally. Additionally, some researchers have recommended that τ∗ should be chosen to be dependent on the embedding dimension p by means of an appropriate value for the time delay τw=(p−1)τ∗, which is the optimal time delay for independence of the time series. The C-C method, based on Correlation Integral, is a method simpler than Mutual Information and has been proposed to select optimally τw and τ∗. In this paper, we suggest a simple method for estimating τ∗ and τw based on symbolic analysis and symbolic entropy. As in the C-C method, τ∗ is estimated as the first local optimal time delay and τw as the time delay for independence of the time series. The method is applied to several chaotic time series that are the base of comparison for several techniques. The numerical simulations for these systems verify that the proposed symbolic-based method is useful for practitioners and, according to the studied models, has a better performance than the C-C method for the choice of the time delay and embedding dimension. In addition, the method is applied to EEG data in order to study and compare some dynamic characteristics of brain activity under epileptic episodes


2001 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. P. Bezruchko ◽  
A. S. Karavaev ◽  
V. I. Ponomarenko ◽  
M. D. Prokhorov

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (07) ◽  
pp. 2111-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALEXANDROS LEONTITSIS

This paper presents a method for the correct estimation of the red (linearly autocorrelated of order 1) noise from chaotic time series. The idea is to increase the time delay in order to have a reliable reconstruction. The results indicate that only on extremely correlated noise cases this increase helps, because otherwise the correlation integrals are not affected. The proposed method is successfully applied on time series of the Hénon map and is extended to weekly closes of the Nasdaq Cmp. index. The main advantage of the method presented here is that it can be used on time series with any kind of linearly correlated noise.


2012 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 271-277
Author(s):  
Zhu Ping Gong

Small data set approach is used for the estimation of Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE). Primarily, the mean period drawback of Small data set was corrected. On this base, the LLEs of daily qualified rate time series of HZ, an electronic manufacturing enterprise, were estimated and all positive LLEs were taken which indicate that this time series is a chaotic time series and the corresponding produce process is a chaotic process. The variance of the LLEs revealed the struggle between the divergence nature of quality system and quality control effort. LLEs showed sharp increase in getting worse quality level coincide with the company shutdown. HZ’s daily qualified rate, a chaotic time series, shows us the predictable nature of quality system in a short-run.


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