scholarly journals Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation

Author(s):  
Becky Maule ◽  
Paul Hubert
2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (04) ◽  
pp. 859-874
Author(s):  
YINGYING XU ◽  
ZHIXIN LIU ◽  
XING ZHANG

This paper attempts to identify whether the inflation expectation formation models adopted by Chinese agents are heterogeneous or homogeneous. A Gaussian mixture model is developed assuming that agents form inflation expectations by selecting a model from alternatives. Analysis results reveal that only adaptive expectation (AE) model is significant, indicating that both households and financial participants are fairly homogeneous in selecting inflation expectation formation models. Therefore, the mechanism of heterogeneous models is inoperative in explaining the heterogeneous inflation expectations in China, and the AE is the main driver of Chinese agents’ perceptions about cost.


2021 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 109739
Author(s):  
Zidong An ◽  
Dingqian Liu ◽  
Yuzheng Wu

Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff

AbstractWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions.


Author(s):  
Aleksandra Rutkowska ◽  
Magdalena Szyszko

AbstractThis study provides an application of dynamic time warping algorithm with a new window constraint to assess consumer expectations’ information content regarding current and future inflation. Our study’s contribution is the novel application of DTW for testing expectations’ forward-lookingness. Additionally, we modify the algorithm to adjust it for a specific question on the information content of our data. The DTW overcomes constraints of the standard tool that examines forward-lookingness: DTW does not impose assumptions on time series properties. In empirical study we cover seven European counties and compare the DTW outcomes with the results of previous studies in these economies using a standard methodology. The research period covers 2001 to mid-2018. Application of DTW provides information on the degree of expectations’ forward-lookingness. The result, after standardization, are similar to the standard parameters of hybrid specification of expectations. Moreover, the rankings of most forward-looking consumers are replicated. Our results confirm the economic intuition, and they do not contradict previous studies.


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