Behavioral Considerations for Effective Time-Varying Electricity Prices

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Schneider ◽  
Cass R. Sunstein

Author(s):  
Severin Borenstein


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 337-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Harding ◽  
Steven Sexton




2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1472-1479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesus Caban ◽  
Alark Joshi ◽  
Penny Rheingans




Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 336
Author(s):  
Maciej Kostrzewski ◽  
Jadwiga Kostrzewska

The paper is devoted to forecasting hourly day-ahead electricity prices from the perspective of the existence of jumps. We compare the results of different jump detection techniques and identify common features of electricity price jumps. We apply the jump-diffusion model with a double exponential distribution of jump sizes and explanatory variables. In order to improve the accuracy of electricity price forecasts, we take into account the time-varying intensity of price jump occurrences. We forecast moments of jump occurrences depending on several factors, including seasonality and weather conditions, by means of the generalised ordered logit model. The study is conducted on the basis of data from the Nord Pool power market. The empirical results indicate that the model with the time-varying intensity of jumps and a mechanism of jump prediction is useful in forecasting electricity prices for peak hours, i.e., including the probabilities of downward, no or upward jump occurrences into the model improves the forecasts of electricity prices.



Author(s):  
Duván Humberto Cataño ◽  
C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero ◽  
Daniel Peña ◽  
Chang Chiann

We introduce a high-dimensional factor model with time-varying loadings. We cover both stationary and nonstationary factors to increase the possibilities of applications. We propose an estimation procedure based on two stages. First, we estimate common factors by principal components. In the second step, considering the estimated factors as observed, the time-varying loadings are estimated by an iterative generalized least squares procedure using wavelet functions. We investigate the finite sample features by some Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we apply the model to study the Nord Pool power market’s electricity prices and loads.



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