News Release and Volatility Spillover Effects in the Chinese Stock Index Spot Market and Index Future Market

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinmiao Zhou ◽  
Junru Zhang ◽  
Zhaoyong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
News Release ◽  
Index Future

scholarly journals The Impact of Restrictive Measures on the Price Discovery Function of Stock Index Futures – Evidence From CSI 500 Stock Index Futures

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Zhehao Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

Restrictive measures implemented by governments have a great impact on the price discovery function of stock index futures. This study compares the price discovery function of CSI 500 stock index futures and CSI 500 stock index before and after the implementation of restrictive measures based on the reaction speed to new information, the price ratio of new information and the price contribution of both future market and spot market. It also analyzes the difference between the price discovery function of the future market and that of the spot market and thus proposes policy implications accordingly.Utilizing data of CSI 500 stock index futures in the period of the stock market crash, this study compares the price discovery function before and after the implementation of restrictive measures. By means of the VECM model and common factor analysis, it further investigates the difference in the price contribution of the two markets. Contributing to existing literature on the relationship between the future market and the spot market, this study explores the change in the price contribution of the two markets and therein studies the impact of restrictive measures on the price discovery function. Empirical evidence finds that before the implementation of restrictive measures, the price discovery function worked more efficiently, while, however, after the implementation of restrictive measures, the price discovery function did not work. Hence, stock index futures do assist in the price discovery of the spot market. In some special time periods, however, due to the impact of restrictive policies, the price contribution of the spot market exceeded that of the future market, implying that the price discovery function of the CSI 500 stock index future market is unstable.

Price Discovery and Spillover Effect between Currency Futures Market and Spot Market-Comparing Developing Country with Developed Country

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-221
Author(s):  
Xing Qun Xue ◽  
Sae Woon Park ◽  
Hee Ho Kim
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Volatility Spillover Effect

This study examines the volatility spillover effect and forward pricing effect between futures and spot markets, using the daily data of January 1988~April 2013 and Bounds test, ARDL model, DCC-GARCH model and the new method of spillover index calculation. In particular, the comparison between the developed and emerging markets will shed a light on a difference between the efficiencies of the two groups of markets. Our results show that the volatility spillover effect in the developed market was less in magnitude, compared to that effect in the emerging market. The causal influence from the future market to the spot market was greater in the developed market than in the emerging markets. This indicates that the foreign exchange markets (future and spot both) were much more efficient in the developed markets than in the emerging markets. This also implies very fruitful guides for the foreign exchange intervention policy, including signaling effect, portfolio effects, and direct and indirect intervention effects.

Volatility Spillover between the KOSPI 200 Spot and Futures Markets Using the VECM-DCC-GARCH Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 233-249
Author(s):  
Sang Hoon Kang ◽  
Seong-Min Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Information Flow ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility

This paper investigates the price discovery, volatility spillover, and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the KOSPI 200 market and its futures contracts market. The investigation was performed using the VECM-DCC-GARCH approach. In the case of returns, we found a significant unidirectional information flow from the futures market to the spot market; this implies that the KOSPI 200 futures market plays an important role on the price discovery in the spot market. In addition, we found a strong bi-directional casualty involving the volatility interaction between the spot and futures markets; this implies that market volatility originating in the spot market will influence the volatility of the futures market and vice versa. We also found strong asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the two markets.

Volatility Spillover and Contagion Effects on Stock Markets: Global and Local Leaders Determination (part 1)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-26
Author(s):  
Konstantin Asaturov ◽  
Tamara Teplova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
European Region ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk

The study focuses on the identification of stable relations between the stock markets of three geographic regions, including pre- and post-crisis periods. The paper demonstrates the applicability of the ARMA-DCC-GARCH model, allowing to provide a detailed examination of the dynamic correlation between 26 stock markets in the three regions (America, Europe and Asia) over the period of 1995-2012. We examine the volatility spillover effects and conditional correlations among the international equity markets. The country stock index is considered as an indicator of market dynamics. The results show that the US market (S&P500 index) is the main volatility transmitter worldwide, whereas the UK, German and French markets are the sources of volatility for the European developed and emerging European equity markets. However, the German DAX index, contrary to some studies, cannot be considered as a dominant one in the European region, in spite of the leadership of the German economy. The study shows that the role of “exporting volatility” or volatility transmitter belongs to the UK stock market. We also found that the US, the UK, Germany and France have a greater influence on emerging markets rather than on developed ones. Between the two markets in the North and East European region (Russia and Poland) the dominant transmitter role belongs to Russia.

Does Commodity Derivatives Function Effectively? A lengthy Discussion

2021 ◽  
pp. 227797522098574
Author(s):  
Bhabani Sankar Rout ◽  
Nupur Moni Das ◽  
K. Chandrasekhara Rao
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Commodity Derivatives ◽  
Derivative Market ◽  
Negative Shock ◽  
Lengthy Discussion

The present work has been designed to intensely investigate the capability of the commodity futures market in achieving the aim of price discovery. Further, the downside of the cash and futures market and transfer of the risk to other markets has also been studied using VaR, and Bivariate EGARCH. The findings of the work point that the metal commodity derivative market helps in the efficient discovery of price in the spot market except for nickel. But, in the case of the agricultural commodities, the spot is found to be leading and thus there is no price discovery except turmeric. On the other hand, the volatility spillover is bidirectional for both agri and metal commodities except copper, where volatility spills only from futures to spot. Further, the effect of negative shock informational bias differs from commodity to commodity, irrespective of metal or agriculture.

scholarly journals Research on the Hedging of CSI300 Stock Index Future Based on VaR and CVaR Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 01004
Author(s):  
Zijian Xu ◽  
Benshan Shi ◽  
Sheng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Future ◽  
Index Future

scholarly journals Agricultural Commodity Trading: Is it Destabilizing Spot Markets?

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. P. Gupta ◽  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Sahaj Wadhwa
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Soy Oil ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Future Trading ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spot Volatility

Executive Summary The future trading has been held responsible by certain political and interest groups of enhancing speculative trading activities and causing volatility in the spot market, thereby further spiralling up inflation. This study examines the effect of future of trading activity on spot market volatility. The study first determined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected future trading volume and spot market volatility. It then examined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected open interest and spot market volatility. The spot volatility and liquidity was modelled using EGARCH and unexpected trading volume. The expected trading volume and open interest was calculated by using the 21-day moving average, and the difference between actual and expected component was treated as the unexpected trading volume and unexpected open interest. Empirical results confirm that for chickpeas ( channa), cluster bean ( guar seed), pepper, refined soy oil, and wheat, the future (unexpected) liquidity leads spot market volatility. The causal relationship implies that trading volume, which is a proxy for speculators and day traders, is dominant in the future market and leads volatility in the spot market. The results are in conformity with earlier empirical findings — Yang, Balyeat and Leathan (2005) and Nath and Lingareddy (2008) —that future trading destabilizes the spot market for agricultural commodities. Results show that there is no causal relationship between future open interest and spot volatility for all commodities except refined soy oil and wheat. The findings imply that open interest, which is a proxy of hedging activity, is leading to volatility in spot market for refined soy oil and wheat. The results are in conformity to earlier empirical studies that there is a weak causal feedback between future unexpected open interest and volatility in spot market ( Yang et al., 2005 ). For chickpeas (channa), the increase in volatility in the spot market increases trading activity in the future market. The findings are contrary to earlier empirical evidence ( Chatrath, Ramchander, & Song, 1996 ; Yang et al., 2005 ) that increase in spot volatility reduces future trading activity. However, they are in conformity to Chen, Cuny and Haugen (1995) that increase in spot volatility increases future open interest. The results reveal that the future market has been unable to engage sufficient hedging activity. Thereby, a causal relationship exists only for future trading volume and spot volatility, and not for future open interest and spot volatility. The results have major implications for policymakers, investment managers, and for researchers as well. The study contributes to literature on price discovery, spillovers, and price destabilization for Indian commodity markets.

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