scholarly journals Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Gilchrist ◽  
Thomas Emery ◽  
Nuno Garoupa ◽  
Rok Spruk
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Xun Pang ◽  
Licheng Liu ◽  
Yiqing Xu

Abstract This paper proposes a Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method for comparative case studies with a single or multiple treated units. We adopt a Bayesian posterior predictive approach to Rubin’s causal model, which allows researchers to make inferences about both individual and average treatment effects on treated observations based on the empirical posterior distributions of their counterfactuals. The prediction model we develop is a dynamic multilevel model with a latent factor term to correct biases induced by unit-specific time trends. It also considers heterogeneous and dynamic relationships between covariates and the outcome, thus improving precision of the causal estimates. To reduce model dependency, we adopt a Bayesian shrinkage method for model searching and factor selection. Monte Carlo exercises demonstrate that our method produces more precise causal estimates than existing approaches and achieves correct frequentist coverage rates even when sample sizes are small and rich heterogeneities are present in data. We illustrate the method with two empirical examples from political economy.


Author(s):  
Olivier Crépel ◽  
Philippe Descamps ◽  
Patrick Poirier ◽  
Romain Desplats ◽  
Philippe Perdu ◽  
...  

Abstract Magnetic field based techniques have shown great capabilities for investigation of current flows in integrated circuits (ICs). After reviewing the performances of SQUID, GMR (hard disk head technologies) and MTJ existing sensors, we will present results obtained on various case studies. This comparison will show the benefit of each approach according to each case study (packaged devices, flip-chip circuits, …). Finally we will discuss on the obtained results to classify current techniques, optimal domain of applications and advantages.


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