Does the Kyoto Protocol as an International Environmental Policy Promote Forest Carbon Sinks?

Under the background of carbon neutrality, the carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems is an important way to mitigate climate change. Forest could not only protect the environment but also an important industry for economic development. As an international climate policy that first recognized the role of forest carbon sinks on climate change, the question becomes, has the Kyoto Protocol promoted the development of forest carbon sinks in contracting parties? To explore this, data of forest can be obtained at the national level. Hence, data of economic, social, polity and climate in 147 countries is also collected. The generalized synthetic control method is adopted. The results show that the policy effect of the Kyoto Protocol was obvious and significant. Moreover, the effect was more significant after the enforcement in 2005. Especially after the first commitment period, the policy effect of the second period is more obvious. Some policy implications are drawn.

The Effect of Concealed-Carry and Handgun Restrictions on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from the Sullivan Act of 1911

The 1911 NY State Sullivan Act (SA) outlawed carrying concealable firearms without a licence, established strict licencing rules, and regulated the sale and possession of handguns. We analyse the effects of the SA using historical data on mortality rates, pistol permits, and citations for illegal carrying. Our analysis of pistol permits and citations reveal clear initial effects of the SA on gun-related behaviours. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences methodologies, our main analyses show no effects on overall homicide rates, evidence of a reduction in overall suicide rates, and strong evidence of a large and sustained decrease in gun-related suicide rates.

Front-of-Pack Labeling in Chile: Effects on Employment, Real Wages, and Firms’ Profits after Three Years of Its Implementation

This study evaluates the impact of Chile’s innovative law on Food Labeling and Advertising, enacted in June 2016, on employment and real wages and profit margins for the food and beverage manufacturing sectors in the 2016–2019 period, using unique company-specific monthly data from Chile’s tax collection agency (measuring aggregate employment, real wages, average size of firms, and gross profit margins of the food and beverage manufacturing sector). Interrupted-time series analyses (ITSA) on administrative data from tax-paying firms was used and compared to synthetic control groups of sectors not affected by the regulations. ITSA results show no effect on aggregate employment nor on the average size of the firms, while they show negligible effects on real wages and gross margin of profits (as proportion of total sales), after the first two stages of the implementation (36 months), despite significant decreases in consumption in certain categories (sugar-sweetened beverages, breakfast cereals, etc.). Despite the large declines found in purchases of unhealthy foods, employment did not change and impacts on other economic outcomes were small. Though Chile’s law, is peculiar there is no reason to believe that if similar regulations were adopted elsewhere, they would have different results.

Bacon causes cancer: Do consumers care?

In October 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) released a report classifying processed meat as a type 1 carcinogen. The report prompted headlines and attracted immediate public attention, but the economic impacts remain unknown. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of the IARC report on selected processed meat prices and purchases using retail scanner data from US grocery stores. We compare changes in prices and sales of selected processed meat products to a constructed synthetic control group (using a convex combination of nonmeat food products). We find a significant decrease in bacon prices in the wake of the IARC report release, but we find no evidence of a sales reduction. We find no significant changes in price and sales for ham and sausage. The pattern of price and quantity changes are consistent with downward shifts in demand and outward shifts in supply for bacon and sausage following the release of the IARC report.

Estimating the Possible Effect of Belt and Road Initiative on Brazilian Economic Growth

Brazil's future participation in the Belt and Road Initiative will promote economic growth, increase the importance of the initiative on the international scene and contribute to the promotion of bilateral economic and trade relations between China and Latin America countries.This paper analyses the alleged effect of BRI on Brazilian economy if the country would have chosen to join the program in the past years (2013-2019) as other countries in the world did. The alleged effect is calculated using the methodology of synthetic control: a statistical method used to evaluate the effect of an intervention/programme in comparative case studies.The results show that Brazil could benefit from joining the Belt and Road Initiative: the GDP per capita rate would be 4.73% higher each year, on average.However, to Brazil joins the BRI, it will be necessary for China and Brazil to know how to maintain a frequent and structured dialogue that projects confidence, opens paths and does not leave governmental dialogue behind what is happening in practical reality. Moreover, more academic research about the initiative and a greater dissemination of its benefits by the media will be needed to raise awareness among the public and politicians about a probable BRI agreement by Brazil.

Estimating the impact of donor programs on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a synthetic control analysis of child health programs funded by the United States Agency for International Development

Background Significant levels of funding have been provided to low- and middle-income countries for development assistance for health, with most funds coming through direct bilateral investment led by the USA and the UK. Direct attribution of impact to large-scale programs funded by donors remains elusive due the difficulty of knowing what would have happened without those programs, and the lack of detailed contextual information to support causal interpretation of changes. Methods This study uses the synthetic control analysis method to estimate the impact of one donor’s funding (United States Agency for International Development, USAID) on under-five mortality across several low- and middle-income countries that received above average levels of USAID funding for maternal and child health programs between 2000 and 2016. Results In the study period (2000–16), countries with above average USAID funding had an under-five mortality rate lower than the synthetic control by an average of 29 deaths per 1000 live births (year-to-year range of − 2 to − 38). This finding was consistent with several sensitivity analyses. Conclusions The synthetic control method is a valuable addition to the range of approaches for quantifying the impact of large-scale health programs in low- and middle-income countries. The findings suggest that adequately funded donor programs (in this case USAID) help countries to reduce child mortality to significantly lower rates than would have occurred without those investments.

Sports Mega-Events and Economic Growth: A Synthetic Control Approach

This paper contributes to the current literature investigating whether hosting sports mega-events brings tangible economic benefits to the host country. Specifically, we examine whether staging the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cups leads to observable economic growth. The research has been conducted through a quasi-experimental study in the spirit of the difference-in-differences method. The research subject includes states in which the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup were held between 2010 and 2016: Canada, South Africa, Great Britain, and Brazil. We found that there is no significant effect of hosting sports mega-events on economic growth.

Myths of Multipolarity: The Sources of Brazil's Foreign Policy Overstretch

In this article, we provide a framework to analyze the foreign policy overstretch of middle powers, that is, their recent tendency to expand foreign policy goals and ambitions beyond their capabilities. We propose that overstretch results from the interaction of permissive international environments and the collusion of domestic actors to produce foreign policy myths. These myths, in turn, justify unsustainable swelling of foreign policy expenditures until they are shattered. After laying out our theory, we test it against the case of twenty-first-century Brazil. First, we document how interest groups logrolled to foster and capitalize on a “myth of multipolarity,” which, once entrenched in elite discourse and public opinion, resulted in a tangible overgrowth of foreign policy. Second, we show the extent of overstretch across four indicators—number of embassies, participation in peacekeeping operations, membership in international organizations, and aid projects overseas—using the synthetic control method to compare Brazil with a plausible counterfactual.