A Note on the Irrelevance of Unit Root Tests and Cointegration Tests

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moawia Alghalith
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cointegration Tests

scholarly journals A note on the irrelevance of unit root tests and cointegration tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-87
Author(s):  
Moawia Alghalith
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Standard Unit ◽  
Cointegration Tests

SummaryWe show that, in practice, the standard unit root tests, cointegration tests, and similar tests are unreliable. This conclusion is more generally applicable to other related regression-based tests. In particular, these tests attempt to solve a problem by creating another problem.

scholarly journals The Effects of R&D and High Technology Exports on Economic Growth: A Comparative Cointegration Analysis for Turkey and South Korea

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayfer Ustabaş ◽  
Özgür Ömer Ersin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

The importance of technology and research and development (R&D) on economic development through international trade has been discussed in many studies. However, the empirical studies focusing on the role of high technology exports has been limited. The study aims at filling this gap by evaluating the relationship between high technology exports and GDP per capita levels with structural unit root tests and cointegration methodologies for Turkey and South Korea for the 1989-2014 period. The following hypothesis is evaluated: by increasing high technology manufactured goods’ exports, countries could increase their GDP per capita which also requires increased R&D that translates itself as high technology manufactured exports. The empirical methodology is as follows: both GDP per capita and high-tech exports variables are tested with traditional ADF, PP unit root and KPSS stationarity tests. The series are further evaluated with Zivot-Andrews single break and Lee-Strazicich two break unit root tests. The structural break tests are necessary; it is well-known that structural breaks lead to biased results in the traditional unit root and additionally in the cointegration tests. Lastly, both variables are tested for cointegration with Engle-Granger and Johansen tests by incorporating the break dates as exogenous dummy variables. The estimated models are further checked for parameter instability with CUSUM type tests. The results obtained for Turkey and South Korea are slightly different: i. both variables are cointegrated for both countries; ii. For South Korea, the positive impact of high-tech exports on GDP cannot be rejected in the long and short run; ii. This conclusion cannot be obtained for Turkey, iii. the parameter estimates for Turkey hint a limited positive effect of high tech exports in the short-run only. The results suggest that, in the future, Turkey should increase the investments in human capital and R&D directed to high tech exports to which could accelerate the economic growth.

The sustainability of trade accounts of the ASEAN-5 countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-65
Author(s):  
Olayeni Olaolu Richard ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose – The present study aims to analyse the sustainability of the trade deficits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 countries using panel framework during the period from 1965 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applied a battery of first- and second-generation panel unit root tests and Pedroni's, Kao and Chiang's, Westerlund, and Di Iorio and Fachin cointegration tests to achieve the objective. Findings – The paper found the evidence of sustainable trade deficit in ASEAN-5 countries while utilizing panel unit root tests as well as panel cointegration tests. Research limitations/implications – The findings have important macroeconomic policies implication for ASEAN-5 countries that these policies had been effective in leading exports and imports to long-run steady-state equilibrium relationship among the ASEAN-5 countries. Originality/value – The main contribution of the paper is to show that the macroeconomic policies of ASEAN-5 countries had been effective in leading exports and imports to long-run steady-state equilibrium relationship. To the authors' best knowledge, in this area, this is the first study in the panel framework for ASEAN countries.

Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 96-141
Author(s):  
A. Skrobotov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Tests

scholarly journals UNIT ROOT TEST WITH HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Sébastien Laurent ◽  
Shuping Shi
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Intraday Data

Deviations of asset prices from the random walk dynamic imply the predictability of asset returns and thus have important implications for portfolio construction and risk management. This paper proposes a real-time monitoring device for such deviations using intraday high-frequency data. The proposed procedures are based on unit root tests with in-fill asymptotics but extended to take the empirical features of high-frequency financial data (particularly jumps) into consideration. We derive the limiting distributions of the tests under both the null hypothesis of a random walk with jumps and the alternative of mean reversion/explosiveness with jumps. The limiting results show that ignoring the presence of jumps could potentially lead to severe size distortions of both the standard left-sided (against mean reversion) and right-sided (against explosiveness) unit root tests. The simulation results reveal satisfactory performance of the proposed tests even with data from a relatively short time span. As an illustration, we apply the procedure to the Nasdaq composite index at the 10-minute frequency over two periods: around the peak of the dot-com bubble and during the 2015–2106 stock market sell-off. We find strong evidence of explosiveness in asset prices in late 1999 and mean reversion in late 2015. We also show that accounting for jumps when testing the random walk hypothesis on intraday data is empirically relevant and that ignoring jumps can lead to different conclusions.

ASYMPTOTICALLY UMP PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS—THE EFFECT OF HETEROGENEITY IN THE ALTERNATIVES

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 539-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Gaia Becheri ◽  
Feike C. Drost ◽  
Ramon van den Akker
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Applied Economics ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Asymptotic Power ◽  
Optimal Tests ◽  
Independent Panel ◽  
Local Asymptotic Power ◽  
Uniformly Most Powerful

In a Gaussian, heterogeneous, cross-sectionally independent panel with incidental intercepts, Moon, Perron, and Phillips (2007, Journal of Econometrics 141, 416–459) present an asymptotic power envelope yielding an upper bound to the local asymptotic power of unit root tests. In case of homogeneous alternatives this envelope is known to be sharp, but this paper shows that it is not attainable for heterogeneous alternatives. Using limit experiment theory we derive a sharp power envelope. We also demonstrate that, among others, one of the likelihood ratio based tests in Moon et al. (2007, Journal of Econometrics 141, 416–459), a pooled generalized least squares (GLS) based test using the Breitung and Meyer (1994, Applied Economics 25, 353–361) device, and a new test based on the asymptotic structure of the model are all asymptotically UMP (Uniformly Most Powerful). Thus, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, pooled regression-based tests may yield optimal tests in case of heterogeneous alternatives. Although finite-sample powers are comparable, the new test is easy to implement and has superior size properties.

Hysteresis versus Persistence in Unemployment: A Sceptical Note on Unit Root Tests

Labour ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Leslie ◽  
Yonghao Pu ◽  
Alexander Wharton
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests
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