P FAKTOR DAN STRATEGI PENANGGULANGAN PENGANGGURAN TERDIDIK DI PROVINSI JAMBI

Pengangguran merupakan masalah utama dalam perekonomian Provinsi Jambi. Pengangguran yang cenderung meningkat dan sulit untuk mengalami penurunan merupakan pengangguran yang persisten. Dampak dari kondisi ini tidak hanya terhadap perekonomian namun menimbulkan permasalahan sosial. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pengangguran terdidik serta memberikan sejumlah rekomendasi kebijakan tentang penanggulangan pengangguran terdidik di Provinsi Jambi. Metode penelitian yang digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan regresi data panel dan analisis SWOT. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa selama periode analisis pengangguran terdidik di Provinsi Jambi secara umum bersifat persisten artinya memiliki kecenderungan untuk dapat kembali ke tingkat pengangguran alami hanya (mean reversion) walaupun dengan intensitas yang sangat lambat. Tingginya kelompok pengangguran berpendidikan tinggi mencerminkan adanya mismatch, hal ini disebabkan keterampilan tenaga kerja belum memenuhi spesifikasi yang dibutuhkan oleh dunia usaha dan industri. Faktor lain tingginya penyebab pengangguran terdidik karena tenaga kerja itu sendiri cenderung memilih pekerjaan karena memiliki bargaining position yang tinggi. Oleh karena itu dari hasil penelitian ini dapat direkomendasikan sebagai berikut paradigma angkatan kerja hendaknya digeser dari mencari pekerjaan kearah penciptaan lapangan kerja melalui penciptaan wirausaha baru dengan memanfaatkan sumber daya lokal unggulan yang ada di Provinsi Jambi, Membangun kerjasama yang solid antara stackholder terkait, baik pemerintah, dunia usaha/dunia industri dan perguruan tinggi melalui forum komunikasi ketenagakerjaan dalam upaya menekan pengangguran terdidik di Provinsi Jambi, memberikan kesempatan magang di dunia usaha dan dunia industri yang lebih aplikatif dan memfasilitasi kemudahan akses permodalan usaha melalui program kredit tanpa agunan dengan persyaratan administrasi yang mudah

Spatial scales, patterns, and positivity trends of SARS-CoV-2 pandemics in mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia

We study geographical epidemic scales and patterns and positivity trends of SARS-CoV-2 pandemics in mass antigen testing in Slovakia in 2020. The observed test positivity was exponentially distributed with a long scale exponential spatial trend, and its characteristic correlation length was approximately 10 km. Spatial scales also play an important role in test positivity reduction between two consecutive testing rounds. While test positivity decreased in all counties, it increased in individual municipalities with low test positivity in the earlier testing round in a way statistically different from a mean-reversion process. Also, non-residents testing influences the mass testing results as test positivity of non-residents was higher than of residents when testing was offered only in municipalities with the highest positivity in previous rounds. Our results provide direct guidance for pandemic geographical data surveillance and epidemic response management.

Mean reversion in a price-earnings ratio and under / overvaluation in the Brazilian stock market

ABSTRACT The market price-earnings ratios differ from those of each share. Despite allowing for several pertinent analyses, authors have rarely addressed these valuation ratios in the Brazilian context. We can use it to evaluate whether the stock market is overvalued (undervalued). In this article, we analyze the mean reversion in a price-earnings ratio based on Ibovespa and identify periods of overvaluation (undervaluation) in the Brazilian stock market. We considered the period from December 2004 to June 2018. Until then, there are no studies that sought to identify periods of overvaluation (undervaluation) in this market. In the analyses, we used non-linear econometric methods. We analyzed the mean reversion in the price-earnings ratio using a unit root test that incorporates a Fourier function in the deterministic term. We identified the periods of market overvaluation (undervaluation) through the regime probabilities obtained from a Markov Switching model, estimated with the price-earnings ratio. The results evidenced that the price-earnings ratio based on the Ibovespa has a non-linear trend and exhibits mean reversion. Thus, this valuation ratio should provide information on the future stock market returns, mostly when it is very dispersed in relation to historical standards. We identified four periods of market overvaluation interposed with five periods of market undervaluation. Mean reversion in the price-earnings ratio contraposes the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. There are no other applications of unit root tests with a Fourier function in the Brazilian context. Furthermore, adopting a Markov Switching model to identify periods of market overvaluation (undervaluation) consists of a methodological contribution. Investors can take advantage of the identification of these periods to establish investment strategies.

The short-term mean reversion of stock price and the change in trading volume

This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test, this paper finds that the market shows the mean reversion pattern after 2000, but not before. This study also confirms that the mean reversion property is significantly reduced if the effect of change in trading volume is excluded from the return of a stock with a significant contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume in the post-2000 market. The results appear in both the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation. This phenomenon stems from the significance of the return response to change in trading volume per se and not the sign of the response. Additionally, the findings imply that the trading volume has a term structure because of the mean reversion of the trading volume and the return also has a partial term structure because of the contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume. This conclusion suggests that considering the short-term impact of change in trading volume enables a more efficient observation of the market and avoidance of asset misallocation.

Health expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa: Is it mean reversion? A Fourier unit root test approach

The aim of the paper is to examine the mean reversion in health expenditure of 45 sub-Saharan African countries. The series on current health expenditure (percent of GDP in total), obtained from the World Development Indicators, each spanned the years 2000–2017. We employed the Fourier unit root test, which allows modelling structural breaks, to deal with any such breaks that could arise as a result of a small sample size (18 years) of data available on health expenditure of the selected countries. The results showed evidence of mean reversion in the health spending pattern of 27 sub-Saharan African countries. There is evidence of nonmean reversion in the health expenditure pattern of the remaining 18 countries considered. We further investigate the link between health expenditure and health outcome, using infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate as health outcome variables. An inverse association could be observed between the infant mortality rate and health expenditure and between the under-five mortality rate and health expenditure in 24 sub-Saharan African countries. On the other hand, in 13 other sub-Saharan African countries we observed a positive association between the variables. The findings of this study could be of great importance to healthcare delivery programmes in the studied countries.

UNIT ROOT TEST WITH HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA

Deviations of asset prices from the random walk dynamic imply the predictability of asset returns and thus have important implications for portfolio construction and risk management. This paper proposes a real-time monitoring device for such deviations using intraday high-frequency data. The proposed procedures are based on unit root tests with in-fill asymptotics but extended to take the empirical features of high-frequency financial data (particularly jumps) into consideration. We derive the limiting distributions of the tests under both the null hypothesis of a random walk with jumps and the alternative of mean reversion/explosiveness with jumps. The limiting results show that ignoring the presence of jumps could potentially lead to severe size distortions of both the standard left-sided (against mean reversion) and right-sided (against explosiveness) unit root tests. The simulation results reveal satisfactory performance of the proposed tests even with data from a relatively short time span. As an illustration, we apply the procedure to the Nasdaq composite index at the 10-minute frequency over two periods: around the peak of the dot-com bubble and during the 2015–2106 stock market sell-off. We find strong evidence of explosiveness in asset prices in late 1999 and mean reversion in late 2015. We also show that accounting for jumps when testing the random walk hypothesis on intraday data is empirically relevant and that ignoring jumps can lead to different conclusions.

Particulate matter 10 (PM10): persistence and trends in eight European capitals

This paper examines the statistical properties of daily PM10 in eight European capitals (Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Helsinki, London, Luxembourg, Madrid and Paris) over the period 2014–2020 by applying a fractional integration framework; this is more general than the standard approach based on the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series used in most other studies on air pollutants. All series are found to be characterised by long memory and fractional integration, with orders of integration in the range (0, 1), which implies that mean reversion occurs and shocks do not have permanent effects. Persistence is the highest in the case of Brussels, Amsterdam and London. The presence of negative trends in Brussels, Paris and Berlin indicates some degree of success in reducing pollution in these capitals.