Influence of some ARFIMA model parameters on the accuracy of financial time series forecasting

The influence of ARFIMA model parameters on the accuracy of financial time series forecasting on the example of artificially generated long memory series and daily log returns of RTS index is investigated. The investigated parameters are deviation of the integration order value from its «true» value, as well as the memory «length» considered by the model. Based on the research results, some practical recommendations for modeling using ARFIMA have been formulated.

Gender wage gap decomposition methods: Comparative analysis

This study introduces a comparative analysis of the gender wage gap decomposition methods with the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data for 2018. To decompose the differences in average wages, approaches based on the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition are used. Apart from the mean wages, the study focuses on other distribution statistics. Using the quantile regressions, the wage gap between men and women is decomposed for the distribution parameters such as median, lower and upper deciles. The decomposition estimates of conditional and unconditional (based on recentered influence functions) quantile regressions are compared.

Fatherhood, marriage and male labor market outcomes

We explore the relationship between fatherhood and marriage and male labour outcomes. We challenge the direction of causality. The difference in differences method for three periods (before, per year, and after an event in family life) allows establishing whether changes in family life follow changes in work life or vice versa. The results are obtained using data from RLMS‐HSE for individuals and households in the period 2014–2017. We find limited confirmation of individual effects. They can be attributed to both direct and inverse relationships between male labour outcome and changes in family life.

A cross-sectoral analysis of the relation between labor productivity and labor compensation in the European Union

The aim of this paper is to assess and compare the link between labor productivity and compensation in four industries — air transport, electronics, finance, and telecommunications — of twenty‐five member states of the European Union (EU) from 2000 to 2014. The long‐run and short‐run dynamics of productivity and compensation are analyzed using the pooled mean group (PMG), the mean group (MG) and the dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators. The results confirm the existence of a gap between productivity and compensation in each of those industries as mentioned in previous studies. However, the results show that despite that gap, the link between the two variables is not broken. That is, productivity and compensation are not only linked in the long run, but they also return to their long‐run equilibrium after every short‐run disturbance. The econometric analysis also reveals that the relation between productivity and compensation does not follow a significantly different pattern from one industry to the other. These findings robust to alternative models, estimation techniques and across industries, suggest that there are some other cross‐sectoral factors preventing productivity gains to be fully reflected on paychecks.

The difference in tax evasion amount among various taxpayers’ groups in Russia

This paper evaluates tax evasion in Russia through the estimation of individual «income‐consumption» gap. Our analysis is held on the balanced in social‐demographic characteristics subsample of the data of the RLMS of the Higher School of Economics. We reach this by using the combination of propensity score matching and exact matching. Given equal declared income consumption levels of self‐employed and worker from small companies is, on average, higher than for workers from the big ones. This leads to the conclusion that former ones evade 13–31% of their actual income. This result is heterogeneous in year. During the economic slowdown, differences in concealment of income between self‐employed and employees of small and large enterprises become insignificant.