A Comparison of J. M. Keynes’s Logical Approach to Probability and Any ‘Objective Bayesian’ Approach to Probability Needs to Incorporate All Five Parts of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability, Not Just Part I

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Skull Base ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Clarke ◽  
Niall Kirkpatrick

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laetitia Zmuda ◽  
Charlotte Baey ◽  
Paolo Mairano ◽  
Anahita Basirat

It is well-known that individuals can identify novel words in a stream of an artificial language using statistical dependencies. While underlying computations are thought to be similar from one stream to another (e.g. transitional probabilities between syllables), performance are not similar. According to the “linguistic entrenchment” hypothesis, this would be due to the fact that individuals have some prior knowledge regarding co-occurrences of elements in speech which intervene during verbal statistical learning. The focus of previous studies was on task performance. The goal of the current study is to examine the extent to which prior knowledge impacts metacognition (i.e. ability to evaluate one’s own cognitive processes). Participants were exposed to two different artificial languages. Using a fully Bayesian approach, we estimated an unbiased measure of metacognitive efficiency and compared the two languages in terms of task performance and metacognition. While task performance was higher in one of the languages, the metacognitive efficiency was similar in both languages. In addition, a model assuming no correlation between the two languages better accounted for our results compared to a model where correlations were introduced. We discuss the implications of our findings regarding the computations which underlie the interaction between input and prior knowledge during verbal statistical learning.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucile Medina

The Grupo Gestor Binacional de la Cuenca del Río Goascorán (GGBCG) was created in 2007 as an original initiative managing a shared basin in the Eastern part of El Salvador-Honduras boundary. In less than twenty years, the issue of confrontation in this border area has led to a logical approach to reconciliation and cooperation through shared management of the Río Goascorán basin. This article analyzes the ways in which the actors involved understand this cooperation. The initiative that is studied is part of a regional context that is of interest for the management of transboundary river basins. Several elements relevant to the analyzed case are addressed, including the difficulty of cross-border action and shared management, the turnover of the actors involved, and the forms of institutionalization on which the management of transboundary watersheds can be based. Spanish Este artículo se interesa en la conformación del Grupo de Gestión Binacional de la Cuenca del Río Goascorán (GGBCG) en el año 2007, como una iniciativa original de gestión de una cuenca compartida en la parte oriental de la frontera Honduras-El Salvador. El artículo muestra cómo en menos de veinte años, la problemática de enfrentamiento en este sector fronterizo dio lugar a una lógica de acercamiento y de cooperación por medio de la gestión compartida de la cuenca del Río Goascorán. También se analizan las formas en que los actores involucrados conciben la cooperación alrededor de la cuenca. El presente artículo resalta varios elementos de reflexión a través del caso analizado: la dificultad de la acción transfronteriza y de la gestión compartida; la renovación de los actores involucrados; así como las formas de institucionalización sobre las cuales puede basarse la gestión de cuencas transfronterizas que invitan a interrogarse sobre la conformación del GGBCG. French Cet article s'intéresse à la constitution depuis 2007 d'un Grupo Gestor Binacional de la Cuenca del Río Goascorán (GGBCG) comme initiative originale de gestion d'un bassin partagé sur la partie orientale de la frontière Honduras-El Salvador. L'article montre comment, en moins de vingt ans, la problématique d'affrontement sur ce secteur frontalier longtemps en litige a laissé la place à une logique de rapprochement et de coopération par le biais de la gestion partagée du bassin du Río Goascorán. Il analyse également les formes sous lesquelles les acteurs impliqués conçoivent la coopération autour du bassin. L'initiative étudiée s'inscrit dans un contexte régional d'intérêt pour la gestion des bassins hydrographiques transfrontaliers. Cet article met en lumière plusieurs éléments de réflexion à travers le cas analysé : la difficulté de l'action transfrontalière et de la gestion partagée ; le renouvellement des acteurs mobilisés ; les formes d'institutionnalisation sur lesquelles peut reposer la gestion de bassins transfrontaliers, que la création du GGBCG invite à interroger.


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