Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiro Honda ◽  
Hiroaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Aging Change

scholarly journals Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (92) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiro Honda ◽  
Hiroaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Aging Change ◽  
Policy Measures

Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.

scholarly journals Should America Save for its Old Age? Population Aging, National Saving, and Fiscal Policy

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas W. Elmendorf ◽  
Louise Sheiner
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Population Aging

scholarly journals Should America Save for its Old Age? Population Aging, National Saving, and Fiscal Policy

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (03) ◽  
pp. 1-49
Author(s):  
Douglas W. Elmendorf ◽  
◽  
Louise Sheiner
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Population Aging

scholarly journals Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
pp. 547-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minchung Hsu ◽  
Tomoaki Yamada
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Aging Health

scholarly journals Population Aging and Fiscal Policy in Europe and the United States

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Raffelhueschen ◽  
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The United States

scholarly journals Should America Save for its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas W Elmendorf ◽  
Louise M Sheiner
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
The U.S

We examine whether the aging of the U.S. population adds force to traditional arguments for boosting national saving and conclude--perhaps surprisingly--that it may not. Aging boosts the demands on future resources, but it also changes the rate of return the U.S. economy can expect from saving. We find that the net effect on desired saving is small: some specifications imply that present consumption should fall by a fraction of 1 percent; others imply that consumption should actually increase. Thus, it is optimal to allow future cohorts to bear much/all of the burden of population aging.

A NOTE ON POPULATION AGING AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hiroaki Miyamoto ◽  
Naoyuki Yoshino
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Local Projection ◽  
Output Effect ◽  
The Government

This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging economies, government spending shock increases output significantly in both short- and medium-terms, in aging economies, output responses are not statistically significant.

India's Fiscal Policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy
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