Pandemic recession and helicopter money: Venice, 1629–1631

We analyse the money-financed fiscal stimulus implemented in Venice during the famine and plague of 1629–31, which was equivalent to a ‘net-worth helicopter money’ strategy – a monetary expansion generating losses to the issuer. We argue that the strategy aimed at reconciling the need to subsidize inhabitants suffering from containment policies with the desire to prevent an increase in long-term government debt, but it generated much monetary instability and had to be quickly reversed. This episode highlights the redistributive implications of the design of macroeconomic policies and the role of political economy factors in determining such designs.

Monetary incentives and fiscal policy mutual influence

The article considers the problems and practice of using the tools of monetary and fiscal stimulation of the economy. The main problems of the application of monetary instruments in practice in emerging markets are identified. The author paid special attention to the definition of classical monetary policy instruments and their role in economic growth in emerging markets. Critical assessment of the role of monetary policy instruments in stimulating economic growth is based on the practice of central banks in emerging markets. Recommendations for the analysis of the efficiency of monetary transmission are given. Problems of efficiency of application of fiscal stimulus instruments in emerging markets are raised. The mechanisms of the dependence between fiscal and monetary policies and the strengthening of such dependence in the case of a significant informal sector of the economy and an underdeveloped financial market are demonstrated. The author not only points out the need for coordination in choosing between monetary and fiscal policy but also advocates the idea of having an independent arbitrator between monetary and fiscal authorities in developing countries. The article also focuses on the analyzing algorithm of the use of monetary policy instruments for economic growth effectiveness. The conclusions made in the article will be especially useful for those who are interested in the issue of optimal choice between monetary and fiscal instruments to stimulate economic development in emerging markets.

Employment recovery policy in the post-pandemic period: the international context

The shocking consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated the need to ensure the resilience of societies in the face of new epidemiological challenges. An integral element of the resilience system is the efficiency, balance and sustainability of national labor markets and the employment sector as a whole, which has had a devastating effect on the “coronavirus”. The purpose of the study is to identify global post-pandemic destructions in the field of employment, determine the main ways and factors of its recovery, as well as the resource potential of international management structures necessary to accelerate this process. Used statistical and analytical approaches, as well as methods of systemic, comparative and graphical analysis. Analyzed modern international approaches to the formation of employment recovery policy aimed at overcoming the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the world of work, public welfare and social justice. The resource potential of new UN and ILO initiatives to stabilize employment and accelerate the pace of its recovery on a global scale has been revealed. The key factors of the global dynamics of employment recovery have been identified, including: anti-malignant vaccination; fiscal stimulus; labor productivity; work migration; the level of development of national social protection systems and labor market institutions, digitalization, as well as involvement of countries in integration processes. The results of the study prove that in the formation of modern state policy aimed at accelerating the post-pandemic recovery of the economy and society, the key factors of employment recovery, as well as the corresponding strategic initiatives of international institutions, should be taken into account.

The role of automatic stabilizers in business cycle: the case of indonesia

TThe use of large fiscal stimulus packages to dampen the impact of Covid-19 recently has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the discretionary fiscal policy. This paper aims at analysing the feasibility of automatic fiscal stabilisers to mitigate economic fluctuations in the case of Indonesia. Using the IMF standard model for quarterly data over the period of 2001(1) to 2019(4), we find that the role of automatic fiscal stabilisers is getting greater both in revenue and spending. This implies that the automatic fiscal stabilisers are feasible as the main fiscal policy instrument for economic stability goals in the future. However, given the existing circumstances, Indonesia has to reform economic, regulatory, and institutional ecosystems in adopting the automatic fiscal stabilisers.

Greek GDP growth in 2022 will rely on EU recovery aid

Significance The economic rebound from a 9% contraction in 2020 is mainly being driven by strong domestic demand supported by accommodative fiscal policies and higher-than-expected tourism revenues. However, the deteriorating epidemiological situation in Greece, and new COVID-19 variants expanding into Europe -- possibly resistant to vaccines -- pose risks to future growth prospects. Impacts Persistent supply-chain disruptions will slow down expansion in industrial output in 2022. Winding down the fiscal stimulus will narrow the primary budget deficit from 7.6% of GDP in 2021 to an estimated 1.2% in 2022. The primary budget deficit will widen in 2022-23 thanks to front-loading defence spending. Greater penetration of digital services is a positive side-effect of the pandemic. A deceleration in bank credit issuance could restrict corporate investment in 2022.

Theory vs. Practice: Does Fiscal Policy Crowd Out Business Investment during Crises?

In 2020, the South Korean government aimed to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by enacting a fiscal stimulus package worth 66.8 trillion won. Traditional economic theory warns that such deficit-financed expansionary fiscal policies can have the adverse effect of crowding out business investment, but the current literature is more divided: some argue that the crowding-out effect outweighs the multiplier effect of fiscal stimulus; some claim that the two effects cancel each other out; and others assert that the scale of crowding out is small, at least in recessions. It is important to study the existence and scale of crowding out during recessions to evaluate the soundness of fiscal policies as a countercyclical tool. Thus, this paper examines whether Korea’s fiscal policy crowded out business investment during two severe economic downturns: the “great recession” of 2008 and the “great lockdown” of 2020. The paper uses a cross-time case comparison of the two economic crises in the hopes of drawing generalizable conclusions for South Korea over time. The findings show that Korea’s facility investment continued to increase during the recent pandemic but decreased during the 2008 financial crisis. Was this due to crowding out? Further analysis suggests that the decrease in investment during the 2008 crisis was due to factors other than crowding out. Hence, the paper concludes that Korea’s fiscal responses to the two crises did not crowd out business investment and thus encourages the continued use of appropriately sized and targeted fiscal stimulus during recessions.

Analysis of Indonesia's Exports & Imports in the Asian Region: Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesia's export and import activity in the Asian region. Data on exports and imports from February 2019 to March 2020 (before the pandemic) and from April 2020 to May 2021 (during the pandemic) was collected from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency portal. The results show that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic does not always decrease Indonesia's exports and imports in countries in the Asian region. For exports, out of 51 countries, only 18 decreased significantly, 14 countries decreased insignificantly, and 19 countries increased. On the import side, out of the same 51 countries, only 11 experienced a significant decline, 24 countries experienced an insignificant decrease, and 19 countries experienced an increase. The Indonesian government must implement various policies that can protect and encourage exports by providing fiscal stimulus, diversifying trading partners, deregulation, and industrial downstream, among others. Further research needs to be carried out on how the effects of the pandemic changed import and exports according to product type and how the severity of the pandemic affects within a country affected export and import activities.

FISCAL POLICIES IN PANDEMIC TIMES: EUROPEAN EXPERIENCES

The pandemic recession was fundamentally different from ordinary recessions, and thus required a different policy response. We review the empirical literature on fiscal consolidation and fiscal multipliers. Then, we assess the impact of fiscal policies on the pace of recovery and public debt sustainability. A premature or a strong fiscal consolidation might result in lower rates of economic growth and elevated public debt as a share of GDP. We critically analyze different adjustment paths across Europe and offer policy-relevant recommendations. The issue is particularly relevant for countries with a strong fiscal stimulus and moderate to high levels of public debt.