Short-Term Impacts of Carbon Offsetting on Emissions Trading Schemes: Empirical Insights from the EU Experience

Is rescuing the EU's emissions trading system impossible? Despite the substantial reform in 2008, subsequent problems of allowance surplus and a low carbon price have spurred new efforts to reform the system for the 2013–2020 phase. But these efforts have met resistance both among member states and in the European parliament, and the EU is struggling in its efforts to improve the ETS. This article draws on four central EU and political science theory approaches to more systematically explore why. The financial crisis and slow international policy progress have narrowed the window of opportunity that was open in 2008. Factors that could open that window again include an economic upswing, a new European commission and parliament, and new global negotiations in 2015. But even without short-term reform, the linear reduction factor will gradually tighten the system and lead to a higher carbon price.

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Initial Long-Term Scenarios for COVID-19’s Impact on Aviation and Implications for Climate Policy

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/03611981211045067 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 036119812110450

Author(s):

Lynnette Dray ◽

Andreas W. Schäfer

Keyword(s):

Emissions Trading ◽

Aviation Fuel ◽

Historical Trends ◽

Systems Model ◽

Carbon Offsetting ◽

Emissions Trading Scheme ◽

Trading Scheme ◽

New Policies ◽

The Eu

The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on aviation in 2020, and the industry’s future is uncertain. In this paper, we consider scenarios for recovery and ongoing demand, and discuss the implications of these scenarios for aviation emissions-related policy, including the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Using the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM2015), a global aviation systems model, we project how long-term demand, fleet, and emissions projections might change. Depending on recovery scenario, we project cumulative aviation fuel use to 2050 might be up to 9% below that in scenarios not including the pandemic. The majority of this difference arises from reductions in relative global income levels. Around 40% of modeled scenarios project no offset requirement in either the CORSIA pilot or first phases; however, because of its more stringent emissions baseline (based on reductions from year 2004–2006 CO2, rather than constant year-2019 CO2), the EU ETS is likely to be less affected. However, if no new policies are applied and technology developments follow historical trends, year-2050 global net aviation CO2 is still likely to be well above industry goals, including the goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2019, even when the demand effects of the pandemic are accounted for.

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External Aspects of the EU ETS in Aviation in Light of CORSIA

International Community Law Review ◽

10.1163/18719732-12341477 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (2-3) ◽

pp. 271-282

Author(s):

Marek Jaśkowski

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Emissions Trading ◽

Legal Status ◽

Global Market ◽

Civil Aviation ◽

Eu Ets ◽

Trading System ◽

Present Contribution ◽

Carbon Offsetting ◽

The Eu

Abstract According to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Assembly Resolution A40-19, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation mechanism (CORSIA) is to be the only global market-based measure (MBM) applied to CO2 emissions from international aviation. This solution has been dictated by the intention to avoid a patchwork of duplicative State or regional MBMs and to ensure that international aviation CO2 emissions should be accounted for only once. The present contribution assesses the margin of autonomy left for Emissions Trading System of the EU (EU ETS) mechanism in the light of this clause, considering its legal status and divergent interpretations. Moreover, the recent 2020 roadmap for revision of the EU ETS Directive concerning aviation, published by the European Commission, is briefly discussed.

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SHORT-TERM CO2 ABATEMENT IN THE EUROPEAN POWER SECTOR: 2005–2006

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007810000108 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 01 (02) ◽

pp. 113-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

ERIK D. DELARUE ◽

A. DENNY ELLERMAN ◽

WILLIAM D. D'HAESELEER

Keyword(s):

Emissions Trading ◽

Power Sector ◽

Short Term ◽

Fuel Prices ◽

Fuel Switching ◽

Emissions Trading Scheme ◽

Detailed Simulation ◽

The Difference ◽

Trading Scheme ◽

The Eu

This paper provides an estimate of short-term abatement of CO2 emissions through fuel switching in the European power sector in response to the CO2 price imposed by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2005 and 2006. The estimate is based on the use of a highly detailed simulation model of the European power sector in which abatement is the difference between simulations of actual conditions with and without the observed CO2 price. We estimate that the cumulative abatement over this period was about 53 million metric tons. The paper also explains the complex relationship between abatement and daily, weekly, and seasonal variations in load, relative fuel prices, and the price of CO2 allowances.

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