scholarly journals Emerging Market Economy Exchange Rates and Local Currency Bond Markets Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s):  
Boris Hofmann ◽  
Ilhyock Shim ◽  
Hyun Song Shin
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (001) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  

This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.


Significance The lira’s collapse is fuelling outflows from Turkey’s local currency government debt market, as foreign investors reduce their purchases of emerging market (EM) domestic debt amid a sharp sell-off in bond markets following Donald Trump’s upset victory in the US presidential election. Both Hungary and Poland -- hitherto two of the most resilient EMs -- suffered net outflows last year and are likely to come under further pressure as the ECB starts to scale back, or ‘taper’, its programme of quantitative easing (QE) in April. Impacts The dollar’s rise against a basket of other currencies since the US election will put severe strain on EM assets. The surging price of Brent crude is improving the inflation and growth outlook. Higher international oil prices will also reduce the scope for further easing of monetary policy in developing and developed economies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 531-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Bruno ◽  
Se-Jik Kim ◽  
Hyun Song Shin

Exchange rates affect the economy not only through the competitiveness of exports but also through a financial channel. The financial channel goes in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel in that a stronger currency goes hand-in-hand with more buoyant real economic activity on the back of faster credit growth and cross-border banking flows. The effect is particularly marked for emerging market economies for the broad dollar index: a stronger dollar may actually lead to a decline in trade volumes of an emerging market economy. Our paper develops a stylized model that generates such an effect and finds supporting evidence in a firm-level investigation of manufacturing firms from Asia.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (192) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serkan Arslanalp ◽  
Dimitris Drakopoulos ◽  
Rohit Goel ◽  
Robin Koepke

This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.


2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. R. Mbise ◽  
R. S.J. Tuninga

An extended SERVQUAL instrument is developed, validated and used to measure perceived service quality delivered to students by business schools in an emerging market economy. A longitudinal survey is conducted with selected students in their final year of study from two business schools in an emerging market economy. The use of the extended SERVQUAL model is suggested to monitor student/employee expectations and perceptions during and after the education service delivery process. Students attach different weights to the service quality dimensions. A new Process Outcome dimension is found to substantially add to the SERVQUAL model and is more important than the other dimensions. The validity of the extended SERVQUAL model for practical use is α >0.95. Prediction of the level of service quality delivered, using four dimensions, indicates that the level of service quality is explained mostly by Process Outcome and Tangibles dimensions. It is suggested that using the extended SERVQUAL model as a tool can enable managers of business schools to identify the factors on which students/employees base their quality assessment of the education services they receive. Knowledge of these factors will enable managers in emerging economies to periodically assess, sustain and improve quality of the whole service delivery process. Priorities can be set to allocate scarce resources properly to make effective investment decisions to improve quality per school and in higher education, in general. The paper further suggests that regulatory bodies make use of this model when comparing performance of business schools, focusing on student experiences as a supplement to the traditional performance measures.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila M. Puffer ◽  
Daniel J McCarthy ◽  
Alfred M Jaeger

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a comparative analysis of institutions and institutional voids in Russia, Brazil, and Poland over the decades of the 1980s through to 2015. The paper asserts that Russia and Brazil could learn much from Poland regarding formal institution building and formal institutional voids that cause problems like corruption and limit economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – A comparative case study approach is utilized to assess the relative success of the three emerging market countries in transitioning to a market economy, viewed through the lens of institutional theory. Findings – Poland’s experience in building successful formal institutions and mitigating major institutional voids can be instructive for Russia and Brazil which have shown far less success, and correspondingly less sustained economic growth. Research limitations/implications – This paper demonstrates the value of applying institutional theory to analyze the progress of emerging economies in transitioning to a market economy. Practical implications – This country comparison can prove valuable to other emerging economies seeking a successful transition to a market economy. Social implications – Since institutions are the fabric of any society, the emphasis on institutions in this paper can have positive implications for society in emerging markets. Originality/value – This paper is an original comparison of two BRIC countries with a smaller emerging economy, utilizing institutional theory. Factors contributing to Poland’s success are compared to Russia and Brazil to assess how those countries might be positively informed by Poland’s experience in building and strengthening sustainable formal institutions as well as avoiding institutional voids and their associated problems.


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