Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezra Karger ◽  
Pavel D. Atanasov ◽  
Philip Tetlock
Keyword(s):  
Existential Risk

Ripples on the Great Sea of Life: A Brief History of Existential Risk Studies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Beard ◽  
Phil Torres
Keyword(s):  
Existential Risk ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals Existential risk from AI and orthogonality: Can we have it both ways?

Ratio ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent C. Müller ◽  
Michael Cannon
Keyword(s):  
Existential Risk

Toby Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Bloomsbury, 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedikt Namdar ◽  
Thomas Pölzler
Keyword(s):  
Existential Risk ◽  
The Future

The intelligence explosion revisited

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-174
Author(s):  
Karim Jebari ◽  
Joakim Lundborg
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
Human Intelligence ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Ability ◽  
Intelligent Machines ◽  
Technological Artifacts ◽  
Existential Risk

Purpose The claim that super intelligent machines constitute a major existential risk was recently defended in Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence and forms the basis of the sub-discipline AI risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the philosophical assumptions that are of importance to the argument that AI could pose an existential risk and if so, the character of that risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper distinguishes between “intelligence” or the cognitive capacity of an individual and “techne”, a more general ability to solve problems using, for example, technological artifacts. While human intelligence has not changed much over historical time, human techne has improved considerably. Moreover, the fact that human techne has more variance across individuals than human intelligence suggests that if machine techne were to surpass human techne, the transition is likely going to be prolonged rather than explosive. Findings Some constraints for the intelligence explosion scenario are presented that imply that AI could be controlled by human organizations. Originality/value If true, this argument suggests that efforts should focus on devising strategies to control AI rather strategies that assume that such control is impossible.

scholarly journals METI (Messaging Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) is irrational and should be abandoned

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Kovic
Keyword(s):  
Existential Risk

No one will answer our METI calls. All METI does is create (existential) risk for humankind.

A Critical Review of the Politics of Artificial Intelligent Machines, Alienation and the Existential Risk Threat to America’s Labour Force

2018 ◽  
pp. 217-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikedinachi Ayodele Wogu ◽  
Sanjay Misra ◽  
Patrick Assibong ◽  
Adewole Adewumi ◽  
Robertas Damasevicius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Review ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Artificial Intelligent ◽  
Intelligent Machines ◽  
Existential Risk

Into Indra’s Net

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John L. Culliney ◽  
David Jones
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Genetic Engineering ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Present Moment ◽  
Religious Expression ◽  
Existential Risk ◽  
Shared Humanity ◽  
History Of ◽  
Yin And Yang

The last chapter highlights a sagely person whose work in international and intercultural education has exemplified the principles discussed in this book. The yin and yang of American culture and modern religious expression, however, represent uncertainties for constructive societal progress. Reflecting on future chances of success for humanity and human selves, the chapter points to the need for sagely leadership to promote biospheric conservation, environmental sustainability, and social justice. With urgency, the same prescription will help us to navigate the chaotic edge between future promise and existential risk in new fields such as genetic engineering and artificial intelligence. The chapter concludes with a view of the choice we face at the present moment: an exercise in free will, unique in the history of life. Each human individual has the potential to contribute something worthy and personally satisfying to the future. Our choice is: will we take the cooperative side of our evolutionary past to a new level and embrace the kind of nurturing philosophical wisdom that confirms our shared humanity. Or will we choose to reject that ancestral path in favor of accelerating self-aggrandizement, aggressive religion, and destructive tribal integrity that threatens societal and planetary well-being?

Buffer Growing Inequality

2019 ◽  
pp. 152-168
Author(s):  
Hill and
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Island States ◽  
Existential Risk ◽  
Wide Angle Lens ◽  
Social Prejudice

Climate change will touch virtually every country in the world and every region of the United States, but it will not affect every place and person equally. Small island states, for example, face an existential risk from sea-level rise and industry loss. The impacts of climate change deprive communities of resources, and social prejudice can impose the bulk of that scarcity on women and girls, with severe consequences. This chapter describes how climate change magnifies existing economic and social inequalities and identifies strategies that can help buffer this effect. Looking through a wide-angle lens, it views the nexus of climate change and inequality from a global perspective before homing in on the United States.

Technological Imaginaries, Feasibilities, Syndromes, and Catastrophes

Dark Skies ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 104-142
Author(s):  
Daniel Deudney
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Engineering ◽  
Science Fiction ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Scale Space ◽  
Technology Governance ◽  
Existential Risk ◽  
Space Colonization ◽  
Space Activities

Space expansionism, science fiction, and space developments are intimately linked. SF from Verne, Wells, and others inspires space expansionists, and SF is shaped by space discoveries. SF makes space expansionism seem plausible but is often unbound by scientific possibility. An assessment of building block, life-engineering, and transformative technologies reveals that large-scale space activities are becoming more feasible, but creating enclosed ecologies, geo-engineering and terraforming remain doubtful. Anticipating the consequences of new technologies (technology assessment) remains difficult. Technology governance is plagued by recalcitrant syndromes. Theorists of catastrophic and existential risk view space colonization as necessary to escape a long list of possible major calamities (including hostile artificial superintelligence and misused genetic engineering for improved humans, called transhumanism). Human survival increasingly depends on competent futurism and social capacities to steer technology with reversals, regulations, and relinquishments, but these are difficult to establish and maintain. Can vital arrangements of restraint survive large-scale space expansion?

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