Small and Large Trades Around Earnings Announcements: Does Trading Behavior Explain Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift?

Author(s):  
Devin M. Shanthikumar
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn Rees ◽  
Brady Twedt

We investigate the relation between media coverage and the trading behavior of short sellers around earnings announcements. Prior research provides conflicting evidence on the role of the media, with some studies finding that the media can impede the price discovery process. Our evidence indicates that short sellers increase their activity in line with the tone of media coverage around earnings announcements, after controlling for earnings news and other factors that affect relative levels of short selling. Furthermore, we show that information in the media successfully forecasts earnings information in the days leading up to the earnings announcement, and that short sellers trade in a manner consistent with information reflected in media coverage preceding the earnings announcement. Our findings are consistent with information contained in the media having value relevance, and suggest that the media may help to facilitate the price discovery process around the release of earnings.


Author(s):  
Hsin-I Chou ◽  
Mingyi Li ◽  
Xiangkang Yin ◽  
Jing Zhao

Abstract Institutional demand for a stock before its earnings announcement is negatively related to subsequent returns. The relation is not attributable to the price pressure of institutional demand and is stronger for stocks with higher information asymmetry and/or greater valuation difficulty. These findings support the notion that overconfident institutions misprice stocks. Following announcements, institutions’ behavior exhibits the outcome-dependent feature of self-attribution bias. Whether they become more overconfident and delay their mispricing correction depends on whether earnings news confirms their preannouncement trades. This behavioral bias also offers a new explanation for the well-known post-earnings-announcement drift.


2012 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 1791-1818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Zhang

ABSTRACT I examine the effect of ex ante management forecast accuracy on the post-earnings-announcement drift when management forecasts about next quarter's earnings are bundled with current quarter's earnings announcements. I build a composite measure of ex ante management forecast accuracy that takes into account forecast ability, forecast difficulty, and forecast environment. The results show that the bundled forecasts with higher ex ante accuracy mitigate investors' under-reaction to current earnings and reduce the magnitude of the post-earnings-announcement drift. Data Availability: The data used in this paper are available from the sources listed in the text.


2011 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 385-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin C. Ayers ◽  
Oliver Zhen Li ◽  
P. Eric Yeung

ABSTRACT: We examine whether the two distinct post-earnings-announcement drifts associated with seasonal random-walk-based and analyst-based earnings surprises are attributable to the trading activities of distinct sets of investors. We predict and find that small (large) traders continue to trade in the direction of seasonal random-walk-based (analyst-based) earnings surprises after earnings announcements. We also find that when small (large) traders react more thoroughly to seasonal random-walk- (analyst-) based earnings surprises at the earnings announcements, the respective drift attenuates. Further evidence suggests that delayed small trades associated with random-walk-based surprises are consistent with small traders’ failure to understand time-series properties of earnings, whereas delayed large trades associated with analyst-based surprises are more consistent with a longer price discovery process. We also find that the analyst-based drift has declined in recent years.


2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Kimbrough

I extend prior research on the information content of conference calls by examining whether they accelerate analysts' and investors' responses to the future implications of currently announced earnings. I find that the initiation of conference calls is associated with a significant reduction in the serial correlation in analyst forecast errors, a measure of initial analyst underreaction. I also find that the initiation of conference calls is associated with significant reductions in two measures of initial investor underreaction: (1) post-earnings announcement drift and (2) the proportion of the total market reaction to firms' earnings announcements that is “delayed” (i.e., that is attributable to post-earnings announcement drift). The reduction in post-earnings announcement drift surrounding conference call initiation is concentrated in the set of sample firms where drift is most severe (i.e., the smallest, least heavily traded sample firms) while the largest, most heavily traded sample firms do not exhibit significant drift either before or after conference call initiation. Robustness tests, including analyses of matched samples of nonconference call firms, indicate that the results are not driven by general increases in analyst and investor sophistication over time or by contemporaneous increases in the information and trading environments of conference call initiators.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Martineau

This paper revisits price formation following earnings announcements. In modern financial markets, stock prices fully reflect earnings surprises on the announcement date, leading to the disappearance of post-earnings announcement drifts (PEAD). For large stocks, PEAD have been non-existent since 2006 but has only disappeared recently for microcap stocks. PEAD remain a prevalent area of study in finance and accounting despite having largely disappeared. This paper concludes with a set of recommendations for researchers who conduct such studies to better assess the existence of PEAD and suggests future research avenues to examine price formation following earnings news.


2015 ◽  
Vol 91 (2) ◽  
pp. 441-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Frederickson ◽  
Leon Zolotoy

ABSTRACT Consistent with investors having limited attention, we posit that when faced with competing earnings announcements, investors behave as if they queue the announcements based on a firm or earnings announcement attribute. We focus on two potential queuing attributes: (1) firm visibility, and (2) the expected cost of processing the earnings announcements. We find no support for queuing based on the latter, but find a statistically significant and economically meaningful queuing effect based on firm visibility. Earnings announcements made by firms that are more visible than a given firm—but not by firms that are less visible—mitigate the announcement window market response to that firm's unexpected earnings, with a corresponding magnification in its post-earnings announcement drift. Further, the effects of visibility-based queuing are more pronounced for days with greater clustering of earnings announcements. Additional analysis suggests that individual investors—not institutional investors—drive the queuing effect.


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