Application of scenario technique in flood risk management

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 87-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Winterscheid

It is now commonly accepted that the management of flood risks has to be fulfilled within an integrated framework. About two decades ago flood risk was managed from a limited perspective predominantly by means of structural measures aimed at flood control. In contrast integrated flood risk management incorporates the complete management cycle consisting of the phases prevention, protection and preparedness. In theory it is a well described concept. In the stage of implementation, however, there is often a lack of support although a consistent policy framework exists. Consequently, the degree of implementation must be rated as inadequate in many cases. In particular this refers to the elements which focus on preparedness and prevention. The study to which this paper refers emphasises the means and potentials of scenario technique to foster the implementation of potentially appropriate measures and new societal arrangements when applied in the framework of integrated flood risk management. A literature review is carried out to reveal the state-of-the-art and the specific problem framework within which scenario technique is generally being applied. Subsequently, it is demonstrated that scenario technique is transferable to a policy making process in flood risk management that is integrated, sustainable and interactive. The study concludes with a recommendation for three applications in which the implementation of measures of flood damage prevention and preparedness is supported by scenario technique.

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. P. Mens ◽  
F. Klijn

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.


Author(s):  
Jean Margaret R. MERCADO ◽  
Akira KAWAMURA ◽  
Hideo AMAGUCHI ◽  
Christabel Jane C. PRUDENCIO-RUBIO

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 2913-2945 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. P. Mens ◽  
F. Klijn

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the Ijssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge, (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Ketchabaw

The City of Toronto has had a long history with, and relationship to flooding. The most severe flooding on record in Ontario occurred in October of 1954 when Hurricane Hazel struck the City of Toronto and surrounding areas. This storm event initiated and helped to shape flood risk management and policy planning in the region. Overtime the city`s approach to stormwater and wet weather flows evolved from flood control to management. The current approach is guided by the city`s Wet Weather Flow Management Master Plan, an overarching plan to manage water flows in the city. With the expected impacts of climate change further increasing the need to effectively manage water in Toronto, it is important to look at and understand the measures the city is taking to plan for and relieve flood risk into the future. From analysis of existing literature and best practices in urban flood risk management, recommendations for improvements to the current master plan, policies, and management are made.


Author(s):  
O. M. Kozytskyi ◽  
S. A. Shevchuk ◽  
I. A. Shevchenko

Background of the study. Due to the increasing intensity and frequency of catastrophic floods occurrence, one of the most important tasks of the water management of Ukraine is to increase the efficiency of the existing system of flood protection due to the implementation of integrated flood risk management methods based on the assessment of flood hazard levels requirements according to Directive 2007/60/EC. The development of scientific and methodological bases for the assessment and mapping of flood hazard and risk levels, as well as the development of integrated flood risk management plans based on them, is an important and urgent task in Ukraine as an associated EU member. The purpose of the work is to highlight the main works results, performed at the Institute on the study of patterns of riverbed transformations, the development of strategies for flood risk management and scientific and methodological support of the assessment and mapping of flood hazard and risk, taking into account the nature and the intensity of river bed transformation and exogenous processes in river basins of Ukraine. Outline of the main material. Systematic research on flood protection issues and river bed evolution in IWPaLR has been conducted since the middle of the last century. The problems of the dynamics of river bed’s evolutions, ensuring the stability of dams, erosion of the tail water of dam, development of active hydraulic structures and their arrangement in river beds, forecasting river bed evolution, runoffs, development study of permissible (nondestructive) flow velocities for alluvial soils, taking into account the phenomenon of self-patching of the river bed, the dynamic equilibrium of the beds, the typing of the beds of mountain rivers, etc., were studied and solved under the natural conditions and in the hydraulic laboratory of the Institute. Based on the results of theoretical and experimental studies of river bed evolution, a number of methodological provisions on the complex regulation of channel deformations and safe passage of high floods were formulated and published a number of regulatory and methodological documents on the calculation and forecasting of river bed transformations, designing of dams and protection structures. An important role was given to the issues of regulation and redistribution of floodwater by the system of river reservoirs and replenishment of groundwater reserves. The methodological recommendations for sampling of river bed deposits and sediments, on the base of the international ISO standards’ requirements and recommendations of have been developed at the Institute, as well as the method of estimation of the river bed transformation’s dynamics, for the discrete and quantitative assessments of river bed deformations and their intensity. The paper also highlights the main results of work on the implementation of the Flood Directive 2007/60/EC in Ukraine, in particular, the development of a Flood Risk Management Strategy in the Ukrainian Carpathian River basins. In the Strategy declared the latest approaches to flood response, which foresee the abandonment of the current paradigm of "flood protection" to favor integrated flood risk management. It defines national mechanisms of strategic management in the field of flood risk reduction, directions of transboundary cooperation, coordination of works within river basins. For the future development of this Strategy, the paper presents the scientific and methodological bases for a comprehensive assessment of the total levels of flood hazard and flood risk and their mapping on a GIS basis. Conclusion. In the future, scientific research on integrated flood risk management should focus on the study of patterns of evolution of river bed and development of mathematical models of regulation of channel deformations, improvement of the flood forecasting and prevention methodology based on simulation modeling, as well as the development new management schemes for runoff ‘s regulation.


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