Predictive models for wastewater flow forecasting based on time series analysis and artificial neural network

2019 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianqian Zhang ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Spencer Snowling ◽  
Ahmad Siam ◽  
Wael El-Dakhakhni
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract Wastewater flow forecasting is key for proper management of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, to predict the amount of incoming wastewater in WWTPs, wastewater engineers face challenges arising from numerous complexities and uncertainties, such as the nonlinear precipitation-runoff relationships in combined sewer systems, unpredictability due to aging infrastructure, and frequently inconsistent data quality. To address such challenges, a time series analysis model (i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA) and an artificial neural network model (i.e., the multilayer perceptron neural network, MLPNN) were developed for predicting wastewater inflow. A case study of the Barrie Wastewater Treatment Facility in Barrie, Canada, was carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed models. Fifteen-minute flow data over a period of 1 year were collected, and the resampled daily flow data were used to train and validate the developed models. The model performances were examined using root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. The results indicate that both models provided reliable forecasts, while ARIMA showed a slightly better performance than MLPNN in this case study. The proposed models can provide useful decision support for the optimization and management of WWTPs.

scholarly journals Well Performance from Numerical Methods to Machine Learning Approach: Applications in Multiple Fractured Shale Reservoirs

Geofluids ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Kailei Liu ◽  
Boyue Xu ◽  
Changjea Kim ◽  
Jing Fu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Unconventional Reservoirs ◽  
Well Performance ◽  
Well Production ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Shale Reservoirs

Horizontal well fracturing technology is widely used in unconventional reservoirs such as tight or shale oil and gas reservoirs. Meanwhile, the potential of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods including huff-n-puff miscible gas injection are used to further increase oil recovery in unconventional reservoirs. The complexities of hydraulic fracture properties and multiphase flow make it difficult and time-consuming to understand the well performance (i.e., well production) in fractured shale reservoirs, especially when using conventional numerical methods. Therefore, in this paper, two methods are developed to bridge this gap by using the machine learning technique to forecast well production performance in unconventional reservoirs, especially on the EOR pilot projects. The first method is the artificial neural network, through which we can analyze the big data from unconventional reservoirs to understand the underlying patterns and relationships. A bunch of factors is contained such as hydraulic fracture parameters, well completion, and production data. Then, feature selection is performed to determine the key factors. Finally, the artificial neural network is used to determine the relationship between key factors and well production performance. The second is time series analysis. Since the properties of the unconventional reservoir are the function of time such as fluid properties and reservoir pressure, it is quite suitable to apply the time series analysis to understand the well production performance. Training and test data are from over 10000 wells in different fractured shale reservoirs, including Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Barnett. The results demonstrate that there is a good match between the available and predicated well performance data. The overall R values of the artificial neural network and time series analysis are both above 0.8, indicating that both methods can provide reliable results for the prediction of well performance in fractured shale reservoirs. Especially, when dealing with the EOR field cases, such as huff-n-puff miscible gas injection, Time series analysis can provide more accurate results than the artificial neural network. This paper presents a thorough analysis of the feasibility of machine learning in multiple fractured shale reservoirs. Instead of using the time-consuming numerical methods, it also provides a more robust way and meaningful reference for the evaluation of the well performance.

Univariate Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting Demand of Low Cost House in Petaling Jaya

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhisham Bakhary ◽  
Khairulzan Yahya ◽  
Chin Nam Ng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Low Cost Housing ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Kebelakangan ini ramai penyelidik mendapati ‘Artificial Neural Network’ (ANN) untuk digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kejuruteraan awam. Banyak aplikasi ANN dalam proses peramalan menghasilkan kejayaan. Kajian ini memfokuskan kepada penggunaan siri masa ‘Univariate Neural Network’ untuk meramalkan permintaan rumah kos rendah di daerah Petaling Jaya, Selangor. Dalam kajian ini, beberapa kes bagi sesi latihan dan ramalan telah dibuat untuk mendapatkan model terbaik bagi meramalkan permintaan rumah. Nilai RMSE yang paling rendah yang diperolehi bagi tahap validasi adalah 0.560 dan nilai MAPE yang diperolehi adalah 8.880%. Hasil kajian ini menunjukkan kaedah ini memberikan keputusan yang boleh diterima dalam peramalan permintaan rumah berdasarkan data masa lalu. Kata kunci: Univariate Neural Network, permintaan rumah kos rendah, RMSE, MAPE Recently researchers have found the potential applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in various fields in civil engineering. Many attempts to apply ANN as a forecasting tool has been successful. This paper highlighted the application of Time Series Univariate Neural Network in forecasting the demand of low cost house in Petaling Jaya district, Selangor, using historical data ranging from February 1996 to Appril 2000. Several cases of training and testing were conducted to obtain the best neural network model. The lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) obtained for validation step is 0.560 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 8.880%. These results show that ANN is able to provide reliable result in term of forecasting the housing demand based on previous housing demand record. Key words: Time Series Univariate Neural Network, low cost housing demand, RMSE, MAPE

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