White-box flight simulator built with system dynamics to support urban transportation decision-making and address induced travel demand

Induced Travel Demand is a phenomenon (ITD) wherein building new road infrastructure increases private car use. ITD has been measured and corroborated through econometric models that give an account of how much travel demand can be induced after road construction. The latter without claims of causality in their inner structure (black-box approach). Beyond the contributions of black-box models, it is still needed to explain structurally ITD for understanding and identifying its causes. Thus, this approach allows policy-makers to design comprehensive policies to deal with ITD in urban context wherein new roads are still needed to guarantee connectivity. In this paper, we present a white-box flight simulator based on a System Dynamics model to support urban transportation decision-making and address ITD. Through the simulator developed, it is possible to improve the causal understanding of ITD. Besides, although the considered policies to intervene in this phenomenon have a conceptual connotation, the simulator is a means to acquire knowledge of structural complexity underlying the interaction between the policies and ITD.

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Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach

Organizacija ◽

10.1515/orga-2016-0013 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 49 (3) ◽

pp. 129-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Juan S. Angarita-Zapata ◽

Jorge A. Parra-Valencia ◽

Hugo H. Andrade-Sosa

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Traffic Congestion ◽

Travel Demand ◽

Structural Complexity ◽

Road Construction ◽

Feedback Mechanism ◽

Induced Travel ◽

Box Models ◽

Decision Making Processes

Abstract Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was selected to model and simulate ITD. First, a causal loop diagram is proposed to describe the ITD structure in terms of feedback loops. Then a stock-flows diagram is formulated to allow computer simulation. Finally, simulations are run to show the quantitative temporal evolution of the model built. Results: The simulation results show how new roads in the short term induce more kilometers traveled by vehicles already in use; meanwhile, in the medium-term, new traffic is generated. These new car drivers appear when better flow conditions coming from new roads increase attractiveness of car use. More cars added to vehicles already in use produce new traffic congestion, and high travel speeds provided by roads built are absorbed by ITD effects. Conclusion: We concluded that approaching ITD with a systemic perspective allows for identifying leverage points that contribute to design comprehensive policies aimed to cope with ITD. In this sense, the model supports decision- making processes in urban contexts wherein it is still necessary for road construction to guarantee connectivity, such as the case of developing countries.

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Islands of Stability: Engaging Emergence from Cellular Automata to the Occupy Movement

Zeitschrift für Medien- und Kulturforschung ◽

10.28937/1000106410 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Pickering

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Cellular Automata ◽

Black Box ◽

Collective Decision ◽

Collective Decision Making ◽

Occupy Movement ◽

History Of ◽

The 1960S

"Instead of considering »being with« in terms of non-problematic, machine-like places, where reliable entities assemble in stable relationships, STS conjures up a world where the achievement of chancy stabilisations and synchronisations is local.We have to analyse how and where a certain regularity and predictability in the intersection of scientists and their instruments, say, or of human individuals and groups, is produced.The paper reviews models of emergence drawn from the history of cybernetics—the canonical »black box,« homeostats, and cellular automata—to enrich our imagination of the stabilisation process, and discusses the concept of »variety« as a way of clarifying its difficulty, with the antiuniversities of the 1960s and the Occupy movement as examples. Failures of »being with« are expectable. In conclusion, the paper reviews approaches to collective decision-making that reduce variety without imposing a neoliberal hierarchy. "

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A System Dynamics approach for integrated decision making optimization of maintenance support system

2009 Chinese Control and Decision Conference ◽

10.1109/ccdc.2009.5192479 ◽

2009 ◽

Author(s):

Meng Yang ◽

Yu Zhu ◽

Jianshe Song ◽

Xirui Gu

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Support System ◽

Integrated Decision Making

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Study of Influence of Road Construction on Grassland in Inner Mongolia

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.807-809.1881 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 807-809 ◽

pp. 1881-1885

Author(s):

Chun Mei Zhang ◽

Min Zhao ◽

Xue Lv

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽

Inner Mongolia ◽

Road Construction ◽

Environment Protection ◽

Analytic Hierarchy ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Inner Mongolia Grassland ◽

Hierarchy Process

In this paper, the indexes that are used to assess the influence of road construction on Inner Mongolia grassland have been proposed based on the environment protection perspective. The Analytic hierarchy process was employed to evaluate the importance of different indexes regarding to influence. These indexes would be used to provide information for decision making about road construction in order to achieve the sustainable development of grassland.

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The Analysis of Our Urban Transportation Problem and the Research of Road Construction & Planning Management

2010 International Conference on E-Product E-Service and E-Entertainment ◽

10.1109/iceee.2010.5660636 ◽

2010 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yin Liang

Keyword(s):

Transportation Problem ◽

Urban Transportation ◽

Road Construction

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Freight Travel Demand Modeling: Synthesis of Approaches and Development of a Framework

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.3141/1725-02 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 1725 (1) ◽

pp. 9-16 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Ram M. Pendyala ◽

Venky N. Shankar ◽

Robert G. McCullough

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Transportation Planning ◽

Travel Demand ◽

Freight Transportation ◽

The Body ◽

Travel Demand Modeling ◽

Demand Modeling ◽

Transportation Sector ◽

Planning Framework ◽

Freight Data Needs

It is increasingly being recognized at all levels of decision making that freight transportation and economic development are inextricably linked. As a result, many urban entities and states are embarking upon comprehensive freight transportation planning efforts aimed at ensuring safe, efficient, and smooth movement of freight along multimodal and intermodal networks. Over the past few decades there has been considerable published research on (1) freight transportation factors, (2) freight travel demand modeling methods, (3) freight transportation planning issues, and (4) freight data needs, deficiencies, and collection methods. A synthesis of the body of knowledge in these four areas is provided with a view to developing a comprehensive statewide freight transportation planning framework. The proposed framework consists of two interrelated components that facilitate demand estimation and decision making in the freight transportation sector.

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Use of system dynamics for proper conservation and recycling of aggregates for sustainable road construction

Resources Conservation and Recycling ◽

10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.02.006 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 86 ◽

pp. 61-73 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Rajib B. Mallick ◽

Michael J. Radzicki ◽

Martins Zaumanis ◽

Robert Frank

Keyword(s):

System Dynamics ◽

Road Construction

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Decision making in reverse logistics using system dynamics

Yugoslav journal of operations research ◽

10.2298/yjor0402259g ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 259-272 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

P. Georgiadis ◽

D. Vlachos

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Reverse Logistics ◽

Closed Loop ◽

System Modeling ◽

New Approach ◽

Helpful Tool ◽

Starting Point ◽

Decision Making Tool

Reverse logistics is a modern field of consideration, research and study, providing helpful information on the operation of the closed-loop supply chain. Although the starting point of this field is traced back to the early 90?s, no standard method has been suggested, neither prevailed. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach on the study of reverse logistics. It is actually a review on how System Dynamics (SD) can be a helpful tool when it is used in the reverse logistics field. The paper explains the basic theory of the system modeling and next it utilizes the reverse logistics model. Finally, an illustrative example shows how SD modeling can be used to produce a powerful long-term decision-making tool.

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