Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven P. Schnaars
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting

Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven P. Schnaars
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Random Walk Model ◽  
Product Form ◽  
Product Class ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Nondurable Goods ◽  
Extrapolation Model ◽  
Selection Of

Forecasts generated by five popular extrapolations are compared with each other and with a random-walk model over nearly 1500 situations. Relative to the random walk, forecasting with extrapolations is most successful on nondurable goods and series that historically have exhibited stable patterns. The amount of data available for forecasting and the product class/product form typology are not found to be important factors in the selection of an extrapolation model.

Examining the Economics of Prostitution Using Online Data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Holt ◽  
Kristie R. Blevins ◽  
Sarah Fitzgerald
Keyword(s):  
Sex Workers ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Sex Trade ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Sex Worker ◽  
Computer Mediated ◽  
Web Forums ◽  
Computer Mediated Communications

The exchanges between sex workers and their clients are often hidden from view, making it difficult to understand how the prices paid to sex workers vary depending on city, time of the year, where they solicit, and the demographics and attitudes of the sex worker. The Internet and computer-mediated communications, however, enable an investigation of prostitution as the customers of various sex workers discuss their sexual exploits and share tips and information with others online. This research uses data collected from 10 city-specific Web forums to examine the price structures of prostitution and the attitudinal, behavioral, and demographic factors affecting the prices paid to sex workers. The implications of this study for our understanding of the various environmental, individual, and situational factors that affect the supply and demand of the sex trade from the client’s perspective will be explored in detail.

scholarly journals Post-Processing and Evaluation of Precipitation Ensemble Forecast under Multiple Schemes in Beijiang River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2631
Author(s):  
Xinchi Chen ◽  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Dong Huang ◽  
Huamei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Hydrological Forecasting ◽  
Better Than

Precipitation is one of the most important factors affecting the accuracy and uncertainty of hydrological forecasting. Considerable progress has been made in numerical weather prediction after decades of development, but the forecast products still cannot be used directly for hydrological forecasting. This study used ensemble pro-processor (EPP) to post-process the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) with four designed schemes, and then integrated them to investigate the forecast accuracy in longer time scales based on the best scheme. Many indices such as correlation coefficient, Nash efficiency coefficient, rank histogram, and continuous ranked probability skill score were used to evaluate the results in different aspects. The results show that EPP can improve the accuracy of raw forecast significantly, and the scheme considering cumulative forecast precipitation is better than that only considers single-day forecast. Moreover, the scheme that considers some observed precipitation would help to improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty. In terms of medium- and long-term forecasts, the integrated forecast based on GEFS and CFSv2 after post-processed would be better than CFSv2 significantly. The results of this study would be a very important demonstration to remove the deviation of ensemble forecast and improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting in different time scales.

‘all in the Same Boat—: A Qualitative Study of Patients’ Attitudes and Experiences in Group Acupuncture Clinics

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 163-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthea Asprey ◽  
Charlotte Paterson ◽  
Adrian White
Keyword(s):  
Physical Space ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Knee Oa ◽  
Telephone Interviews ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Single Sex ◽  
Appointment System ◽  
Cost Efficient

Background Group acupuncture clinics have been introduced in a London hospital and in two general practices in Hertfordshire for the treatment of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Encouraging preliminary reports have been published of the efficacy of the treatment delivered in this setting but its acceptability to patients has not yet been established. The aim was to investigate the acceptability and perceived advantages and disadvantages of acupuncture delivered in the group setting for the treatment of knee OA. Methods Semistructured interviews were conducted with 16 patients in their own homes and with four nurses over the telephone. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, fully anonymised and analysed thematically. Results Group acupuncture was delivered with enthusiasm by nurses, was acceptable and popular with patients and recognised to be cost-efficient. Factors affecting acceptability were situational, interpersonal and intrapersonal. Situational factors included adequacy of the physical space used, flexibility of the appointment system and the changing and adaptable nature of the group. Interpersonal factors were mutual support, the exchange of information, the provision of mixed or single-sex sessions and the role of the acupuncture nurse. Intrapersonal factors that increased acceptability were less clear, but nurses expressed the view that the group setting was less suitable for patients with complex conditions or severe pain. Conclusions Acceptability is very high and may be maximised by taking a number of factors into account: full information should be provided before treatment begins; flexibility should be maintained in the appointment system and different levels of contact between fellow patients should be fostered; sufficient space and staffing should be provided and single-sex groups used wherever possible.

Demographic and Situational Factors Affecting Injury, Resistance, Completion, and Charges Brought in Sexual Assault Cases: What Is Best for Arrest?

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 479-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah S. Scott ◽  
Rebecca Beaman
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Physical Resistance ◽  
Compliance Strategy

This study examines demographic and situational factors in an effort to predict whether or not a complainant was injured, used resistance, experienced a completed assault, and whether charges were brought against the offender. If the accused had consumed alcohol or drugs, he was almost seven times more likely to be arrested. The complainant was six times more likely to report rape completion if she had consumed alcohol or drugs and if the complainant fell unconscious at any time during the attack she was significantly less likely to use a resistance strategy. The complainant’s use of a compliance strategy at any time during the assault positively predicted not using a physical resistance strategy and sexual assault completion. The reporting of injury positively predicted use a physical resistance strategy and sexual assault completion. If the assault was completed, it was less likely that charges were pressed. Implications of these findings are discussed, and directions for future research are offered.

Study on Factors Affecting Learning Strategies in Reading Comprehension

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoling Yang
Keyword(s):  
Reading Comprehension ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Strategy Use ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Reading Competence

This paper presents the literature on reading competence and analyzes the influence of factors on students’ strategy use. The necessity of integrating social and individual factors in the studies of learning strategy, especially individual factors affecting the improvement of reading competence is made explicit, and this is followed by the description of situational factors and individual factors such as motivation, age, sex, personality and so on.

Targets for Cruelty: Demographic and Situational Factors Affecting the Type of Animal Abused

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne E. Tallichet ◽  
Christopher Hensley ◽  
Adam O’Bryan ◽  
Heidi Hassel
Keyword(s):  
Situational Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting
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