Multivariate birth-and-death processes as approximations to epidemic processes

1973 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Transient Process ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Epidemic Size

This paper presents the theory of a multivariate birth-and-death process and its representation as a branching process. The bivariate linear birth-and-death process may be used as a model for various epidemic situations involving two types of infective. Various properties of the transient process are discussed and the distribution of epidemic size is investigated. For the case of a disease spread solely by carriers when the two types of infective are carriers and clinical infectives the large population version of a model proposed by Downton (1968) is further developed and shown under appropriate circumstances to closely approximate Downton's model.

Multivariate birth-and-death processes as approximations to epidemic processes

1973 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 15-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Transient Process ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Epidemic Size

This paper presents the theory of a multivariate birth-and-death process and its representation as a branching process. The bivariate linear birth-and-death process may be used as a model for various epidemic situations involving two types of infective. Various properties of the transient process are discussed and the distribution of epidemic size is investigated. For the case of a disease spread solely by carriers when the two types of infective are carriers and clinical infectives the large population version of a model proposed by Downton (1968) is further developed and shown under appropriate circumstances to closely approximate Downton's model.

The maximum in critical Galton–Watson and birth and death processes

1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 601-613
Author(s):  
K. Kämmerle ◽  
H.-J. Schuh
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Asymptotic Bounds ◽  
Offspring Distribution ◽  
Martingale Methods ◽  
Image Position

In this paper recent results by Weiner [10] on Mn := max{Z 0, · ··, Zn } are strengthened and generalized, where (Zn ) n is a critical Galton–Watson branching process with finite and positive offspring variance and Z 0 ≡ 1. It is shown that Explicit asymptotic bounds are given for with . If (Zn ) n has a linear fractional offspring distribution, it can be embedded in a critical birth and death process (Ẑ t ) t . Using martingale methods one obtains thereof. These results generalize to the case Z 0 ≡ k.

The maximum in critical Galton–Watson and birth and death processes

1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Kämmerle ◽  
H.-J. Schuh
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Asymptotic Bounds ◽  
Offspring Distribution ◽  
Martingale Methods ◽  
Image Position

In this paper recent results by Weiner [10] on Mn:= max{Z0, · ··, Zn} are strengthened and generalized, where (Zn)n is a critical Galton–Watson branching process with finite and positive offspring variance and Z0 ≡ 1. It is shown that Explicit asymptotic bounds are given for with . If (Zn)n has a linear fractional offspring distribution, it can be embedded in a critical birth and death process (Ẑ t)t. Using martingale methods one obtains thereof.These results generalize to the case Z0 ≡ k.

On a property of finite-state birth and death processes

1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 859-866
Author(s):  
A. J. Branford
Keyword(s):  
Simple Proof ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Converse Result ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Event Times

A simple proof is given of the result that the ‘overflow' from a finite-state birth and death process is a renewal stream characterized by hyperexponential inter-event times. Our structure is utilized to give a converse result that any hyperexponential renewal stream can be so produced as the overflow from a finite-state birth and death process.

On the parity of individuals in birth and death processes

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 484-501
Author(s):  
S. K. Srinivasan ◽  
C. R. Ranganathan
Keyword(s):  
General Model ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Number Of Births

This paper deals with the parity of individuals in an age-dependent birth and death process. A more general model with parity and age-dependent birth rates is also considered. The mean number of individuals with parity 0, 1, 2, ·· ·is obtained for the two models. The first moments of the total number of births in the population up to time t and the sum of the parities of the individuals existing at time t are obtained. A brief discussion on the parity of individuals in a population including ‘twins' is also given.

Birth and death processes with random environments in continuous time

1981 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Cogburn ◽  
William C. Torrez
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Random Environment ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Random Environments ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Discrete Time Model ◽  
Extinction Probabilities

A generalization to continuous time is given for a discrete-time model of a birth and death process in a random environment. Some important properties of this process in the continuous-time setting are stated and proved including instability and extinction conditions, and when suitable absorbing barriers have been defined, methods are given for the calculation of extinction probabilities and the expected duration of the process.

Application of Stieltjes theory for S-fractions to birth and death processes

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 507-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Bordes ◽  
B. Roehner
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Special Class ◽  
Jacobi Matrix ◽  
General Theorem ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Nearest Neighbour ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes

We are interested in obtaining bounds for the spectrum of the infinite Jacobi matrix of a birth and death process or of any process (with nearest-neighbour interactions) defined by a similar Jacobi matrix. To this aim we use some results of Stieltjes theory for S-fractions, after reviewing them. We prove a general theorem giving a lower bound of the spectrum. The theorem also gives sufficient conditions for the spectrum to be discrete. The expression for the lower bound is then worked out explicitly for several, fairly general, classes of birth and death processes. A conjecture about the asymptotic behavior of a special class of birth and death processes is presented.

scholarly journals Birth and death processes in randomly fluctuating environments

2002 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 93-115
Author(s):  
Kanji Ichihara
Keyword(s):  
Random Environment ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Fluctuating Environments

AbstractA birth and death process in a time-dependent random environment is introduced. We will discuss the recurrence and transience properties for the process.

The accuracy of the diffusion approximation to the expected time to extinction for some discrete stochastic processes

1983 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Grasman ◽  
D. Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Diffusion Approximation ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Asymptotic Approximations ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Time To Extinction

Asymptotic approximations and numerical computations are used to estimate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation for the expected time to extinction for some stochastic processes. The results differ for processes with a continuant transition matrix (e.g. a birth and death process), and those with a noncontinuant transition matrix (e.g. a non-linear branching process). In the latter case, the diffusion equation does not hold near the point of exit. Consequently, high-order corrections do not result in substantial improvement over the diffusion approximation.

ZIPF AND LERCH LIMIT OF BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Klar ◽  
P. R. Parthasarathy ◽  
N. Henze
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Kinetics ◽  
Continued Fractions ◽  
Zipf’S Law ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Speed Of Convergence ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Zipf's Law ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Epidemiology Data

Birth and death processes are useful in a wide range of disciplines from computer networks and telecommunications to chemical kinetics and epidemiology. Data from many different areas such as linguistics, music, or warfare fit Zipf's law surprisingly well. The Lerch distribution generalizes Zipf's law and is applicable in survival and dispersal processes. In this article we construct a birth and death process that converges to the Lerch distribution in the limit as time becomes large, and we investigate the speed of convergence. This is achieved by employing continued fractions. Numerical illustrations are presented through tables and graphs.

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