scholarly journals Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 97-116
Author(s):  
Anh Vo Thi Thuy ◽  
Anh Tran Nguyen Tram ◽  
Thuy Ha Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
The Government

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years.

Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
TRAN NGUYEN TRAM ANH ◽  
HA XUAN THUY ◽  
VO THỊ THUY ANH
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems

scholarly journals Comparing parametric and non-parametric early warning systems for currency crises in Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-85
Author(s):  
Phuong Thi My Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future ◽  
Non Parametric

The purpose of this paper is to compare performances of the parametric and nonparametric early warning systems for currency crises in Vietnam from January 2002 to December 2014. The study results showed that the method parameter effectively than the method parameter in early warning currency crises in Vietnam. Besides, the author also gives a number of recommendations to strengthen the early warning system for currency crisis in Vietnam in the future.

scholarly journals Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1016-1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertrand Candelon ◽  
Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu ◽  
Christophe Hurlin
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems

PREDICTING FINANCIAL FAILURE OF THE TURKISH BANKS

2006 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 0650005 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. METE DOĞANAY ◽  
NILDAĞ BAŞAK CEYLAN ◽  
RAMAZAN AKTAŞ
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Financial Failure ◽  
The Government

Banks are the most important financial institutions in Turkey because other financial institutions are not developed efficiently yet. Turkish banks experienced financial difficulties and a substantial amount of banks failed in the past. This event urged the government to initiate measures to prevent banks from getting into financial difficulties. As a result of these measures, Turkish banking system currently seems to be very attractive for the foreign investors willing to invest in this sector. One of the main concerns of the foreign investors is a possibility of a new banking crisis although it is very remote at this time. The purpose of this study is to develop early warning systems predicting the financial failure at least three years ahead of financial failure date. A number of multivariate statistical models such as multiple regression, discriminant analysis, logit, probit are used. We found that the most appropriate model is logit. The significant variables obtained from the models explain very well the causes of the bank failures. Our models can be used to assist interested parties to predict the probability of financial failure of Turkish banks.

“With Deep Regret and Reluctance”

2021 ◽  
pp. 157-207
Author(s):  
James Waller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
State Legitimacy ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
The Government

On January 9, 2020, a compromise agreement was reached that promised “a fair and balanced basis upon which to restore the institutions” of Northern Ireland’s system of governance. Governance refers, broadly, to the ways in which authority in a country is exercised. How are governments selected, monitored, and replaced? What is the capacity of the government to develop and implement sound policies? To what degree do the citizens respect the state and the institutions that govern them? Nearly all early warning systems for violent conflict include various traits of governance as risk factors. In contemporary Northern Ireland, where politics is now the weapon of choice, this chapter will consider five specific risk factors related to the practice of governance: (1) regime type, (2) state legitimacy deficit, (3) weakness of state structures, (4) identity-based polar factionalism, and (5) systematic state-led discrimination.

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