leading indicators
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2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (12) ◽  
pp. 1397-1403
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Kriyt ◽  
Yuliya N. Sladkova ◽  
Maksim V. Sannikov ◽  
Aleksandr O. Pyatibrat

Introduction. The occupation of firefighters is characterized by the impact of both hazardous fire factors and a complex of harmful and dangerous characteristics of various natures, often exceeding the expected values. High air temperature is typical for almost all types of fire and is one of the main adverse physical factors affecting the body of firefighters. Experimental models on animals are of leading importance in studying extreme fire factors, including hyperthermic exposure. Material and methods. The study was carried out on 124 outbred white male rats of 3 months of age weighing 250-300 g, divided randomly into two groups. The first group (62 rats) was subjected to a single hyperthermic load. The second group (62 rats) was subjected to daily hyperthermic load during 14 days. The study of the leading indicators of the acid-base state and water-electrolyte balance, biochemical and clinical blood tests, cellular and humoral immunity was carried out before and after hyperthermic exposure. Results. The obtained data indicate high ambient temperatures cause changes in homeostasis indices in laboratory animals. At the same time, there are alterations in the indicators of water-electrolyte balance, acid-base state, clinical and biochemical blood tests and the immune system. Conclusion. An experimental model of extreme heat exposure on animals showed the emergence and persistence of changes in the leading indicators of homeostasis. In the group of single hyperthermia, these parameters were restored to the background levels in a day. In the group of multiple hyperthermia, they remained altered.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 10921
Author(s):  
Francisco Brocal Fernandez ◽  
Alberto Sanchez-Lite ◽  
José Luis Fuentes-Bargues ◽  
Miguel Á. Sebastian ◽  
Cristina González-Gaya

Companies that implement Integrated Management Systems (IMS) require approaches that optimize resources and results. In the case of IMS of a new or emerging nature, the use of dynamics risk analysis approaches and the integration of real-time monitoring data in the risk assessment process offers news perspectives. The objective of this work is to identify and classify leading indicators that facilitate the dynamic analyses of emerging risks in an IMS for quality, environment, and safety. For it, such indicator analysis has been based on a bibliographic analysis. Regarding results, firstly, a structure of indicators emerges configured of three categories organized in two levels. At the first level, it is established by the indicators of the IMS which can be integrated. The second level is configured of two categories of interrelated indicators, that is, process integrity indicators and occupational risks indicators. In turn, each of these three categories has two dimensions. The first dimension represents the direction of the indicator, leading or lagging indicator. The second dimension represents the risk nature, emerging or traditional risk. Secondly, a classification of the leading indicators is derived according to the categories of the indicators and the risk nature. This classification shows the direction of the leading indicators as well as qualitative graduation of the potential associated consequences. Said theoretical framework has been applied to a case study configured by a manufacturing process. Thus, a conceptual scheme has been developed that represents the first step towards a more in-depth and detailed development that allows the identification and definition of specific leading indicators within an IMS from a dynamic and emerging risk perspective.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 7623
Author(s):  
Michail I. Seitaridis ◽  
Nikolaos S. Thomaidis ◽  
Pandelis N. Biskas

We estimate fundamental pricing relationships in selected European day-ahead electricity markets. Using a fractionally integrated panel data model with unobserved common effects, we quantify the responsiveness of hourly electricity prices to two fundamental leading indicators of day-ahead markets: the predicted load and renewable generation. The application of fractional cointegration analysis techniques gives further insight into the pricing mechanism of power delivery contracts, enabling us to measure the persistence of fundamental shocks.


Author(s):  
Jens J. Krüger

AbstractLeading indicators are important variables in business cycle forecasting. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the lead-lag stability of German leading indicators in time-frequency space. This method permits a time-varying relation of the leading indicators to the reference cycle allowing simultaneously to focus on lead-lag stability at the specific business cycle frequencies. In this way we analyze an index of new orders, a survey-based index of business expectations, an index of stock market returns and the interest rate term spread. We confirm that most of these indicators are indeed leading the reference cycle most of the time, but the number of months leading varies considerably over time and is associated with a great deal of estimation uncertainty.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (Volume 1 No 2) ◽  
pp. 197-208
Author(s):  
Marlin Himawati ◽  
Kemala Rengganis ◽  
Rabiatul Adawiyah ◽  
Dhiya Fasya ◽  
Ulfah Rosida ◽  
...  

Puskesmas represents the functional organization unit that runs health efforts accepted and affordable by the entire community with society's active role. Puskesmas must have a good quality of health service to provide the satisfaction of the patients. Patient satisfaction is one of the leading indicators of health facilities and has become a standard measure of quality-of-service customer satisfaction. The general objectives of the study are to evaluate the level of satisfaction of patients at the Dental Clinic of Puskesmas Cimahi Tengah, Cimahi City, based on tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy. This study used a descriptive study method through a questionnaire about patient satisfaction toward services at the dental clinic of Puskesmas Cimahi Tengah. The sample size used in this study were all patients who came to the dental clinic of Puskesmas Cimahi Tengah. The study results are based on the five dimensions analyzed, namely tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy, which refer to the SERVQUAL model developed by Parasuraman. The service quality of the dental clinic at Puskesmas Cimahi Tengah on the dimensions of tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy was very satisfying. The conclusion based on the analysis of the respondents' responses on patient satisfaction at the dental clinic at the Central Cimahi Center was very gratifying.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1433-1440
Author(s):  
Ade Novalina

The slowdown in the world economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic has become one of the triggers for increased analysis in the economic sector to find the proper steps to protect the economy from the shadow of the crisis. However, most research is still focused on several separate policies, which makes the analysis results still seem bleak. This research was conducted using the ARDL panel approach to analyze the ability of endurance policy to maintain a balance between aggregate demand and supply in ASEFO countries. The data used is secondary data (time series) from 2009 – 2019. The analysis results show that the leading indicators of controlling GDP in ASEFO countries on a panel basis are INF, NPL, GOV, LDR. Meanwhile, the leading indicators of the effectiveness of the variables are INF and GOV. Thus, government spending during the pandemic must still be controlled not to cause inflation which is a threat to the economy.


Tourism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-366
Author(s):  
Surabhi Gore ◽  
Nilesh Borde ◽  
Purva Hegde Desai ◽  
Babu George

This paper aims to simulate the stages of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) in Goa, India, based on the number of tourist arrivals and tests whether the stages correspond with the stages of TALC as predicted in the theory. The graphs are plotted for total, foreign, and domestic tourists from 1962-2018. A compliance assessment of the indicators with the TALC stages is also done to ascertain the extent of development. The leading indicators of the exploration, stagnation, and decline stages are identified. The lagging indicator shows sluggish tourism planning initiatives. It is observed that the TALC differs for domestic and foreign tourists' arrivals. The study provides an important historical perspective on the pattern of growth of tourism in Goa. The pattern can further be employed as a basis to guide the process of strategy formulation.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0254744
Author(s):  
Yakub Sebastian ◽  
Chaomei Chen

The breakthrough potentials of research papers can be explained by their boundary-spanning qualities. Here, for the first time, we apply the structural variation analysis (SVA) model and its affiliated metrics to investigate the extent to which such qualities characterize a group of Nobel Prize winning papers. We find that these papers share remarkable boundary-spanning traits, marked by exceptional abilities to connect disparate and topically-diverse clusters of research papers. Further, their publications exert structural variations on a scale that significantly alters the betweenness centrality distributions in existing intellectual space. Overall, SVA not only provides a set of leading indicators for describing future Nobel Prize winning papers, but also broadens our understanding of similar prize-winning properties that may have been overlooked among other regular publications.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen

Abstract Vietnam has experienced galloping inflation and faced serious dollarization since its reform. To effectively control its inflation for promoting price stability, it is necessary to find efficacious leading indicators and the hedging mechanism. Using monthly data over the period from January 1997 to June 2020, this study finds the predictive power and hedge effectiveness of both gold and the US dollar on inflation in the long-run and short-run within the asymmetric framework. Especially, the response of inflation to the shocks of gold price and the US dollar are quick and decisive, disclosing the sensitiveness of inflation to these two variables.


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