scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Crisis and Large Output Loss: Stylized Facts and Some Useful Theories

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-59
Author(s):  
WILLI SEMMLER
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Output Loss ◽  
Large Output

Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Vilela Vieira ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on System GMM estimation for a set of 106 countries for the period of 2000-2011. Findings – For the complete sample of countries and for a set of developing/emerging economies, there is evidence that an increase (decrease) in REER volatility reduces (increases) export volume. The results are not robust once the oil export countries are removed from the sample. The estimated coefficients for the financial crisis dummy are positive and statistically significant, indicating that export volume were 0.14 percent higher after the financial crisis of 2008 compared to the previous period (2000-2007). There is also evidence that the export volume is price (REER) and income (trade weighted) inelastic. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results are valid for the complete set of countries and for developing and emerging economies when including the oil export countries, suggesting that countries should reduce exchange rate volatility in order to foster their export volume and that oil export countries have an important role on these results. Practical implications – The paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to minimize exchange rate volatility if they seek to increase export volume. The international financial crisis had a significant impact on export volume in all estimated models regardless of the set of countries used. Originality/value – One of the main novelties of this work is that it deals with possible endogeneity using GMM estimators and addresses the issue of instrument proliferation, which is not a common feature of previous empirical studies on exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Another original aspect of the research is the construction of trade weighted variables for foreign income and REER based on the major 20 export partners for each country used in the panel data estimation. The work also incorporates the years following the international financial crisis of 2008, which is an additional empirical novelty, in order to address the impact of the international financial crisis on the export volume.

Does exchange rate volatility influence import commodities of India-US? Evidence from ARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

PurposeThe aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate on 45 import commodities, considering global financial crisis period on India's import from the US. The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effect and causality among variables.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses E-GARCH model to gage the real exchange rate volatility, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test technique to discover the adequate short- and long-run relationships and Toda-Yamamoto causality method to analyze the causality among variables. The study uses the time period from 2002:M09 to 2019:M06.FindingsThe empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effects and causality among variables.Practical implicationsThe finding of the study suggests that macroeconomic variables have significant role and could be important to undertake the small and medium scale industries in policymaking. Government may need to make decision for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as their performance can bring change in the trade to compete globally by increasing and controlling the price of the import and defending the domestic competitiveness.Originality/valueThe study uses additional variable namely price of import and includes the global financial crisis period to measure dampening effect on each commodity by using robust econometric technique in context of emerging nation like India.

The effects of the global financial crisis on the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Niaz Ahmed Bhutto ◽  
Farhan Ahmed ◽  
Zahida Abro ◽  
Nadia Anjum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Country Specific

Recent literature has shifted to examining whether the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows is symmetric or asymmetric. However, this literature does not provide consistent findings. We extend the existing literature by examining whether the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows changes as a result of the global financial crisis. For this purpose, we use a nonlinear ARDL model on both the pre and the post-crisis period data. The pre-crisis and post-crisis periods cover the data from January 1986 to August 2008 and September 2008 to January 2018 respectively. Results indicate that the relationship changes as a result of global financial crisis however, this relationship is country specific as well on the type of model (export or import) selected.

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