A Crise Financeira Internacional de 2008 como Resultado da Dinâmica do Eixo Sino-Americano de Acumulação l The 2008 International Financial Crisis as a Result of the Sino-American Axis of Accumulation’s Dynamics

Há um consenso na academia em atribuir a causa da crise internacional de 2008 ao processo de financeirização da economia dos Estados Unidos. Esta pesquisa considera esse entendimento correto, porém insuficiente para entender com profundidade como a crise impactou a economia mundial e o sistema interestatal. O objetivo deste trabalho é fugir do “nacionalismo metodológico” que permeia essa visão e entender a crise de 2008 como uma crise da conjuntura da economia-mundo capitalista. Seguindo a análise dos Sistemas-Mundo, o artigo é iniciado com o estudo da atual conjuntura, de expansão financeira do ciclo sistêmico estadunidense, que deve ser entendida através dos processos complementares de financeirização econômica e reestruturação produtiva mundial. Em um segundo momento, a pesquisa se volta para entender como esses dois processos construíram um “eixo sino-americano de acumulação”. Finalmente, entende-se que, apesar da aparente simbiose dessa relação, ela apresenta um desequilíbrio estrutural que originou a crise de 2008.Palavras-chave: Crise Financeira Internacional de 2008; China; Estados Unidos.ABSTRACTThere is a consensus in academia to attribute the cause of the 2008 international crisis to the financialization process of the United States’ economy. This research considers this understanding correct, but insufficient for a deep understanding of the crisis’ impact in the world economy and in the interstate system. This research aims to escape the “methodological nacionalism” that permeates this vision, understanding the 2008 crisis as a crisis in the conjuncture of the capitalist world-economy. Following the World-Systems Analysis, this research starts with the study of the current conjuncture, the financial expansion of the American systemic cycle of accumulation, which must be understood through the complementary processes of economic financialization and world productive restructure. In a second step, the research turns to understand how these two processes built a “Sino-American axis of accumulation”. Finally, it is understood that, despite the apparent symbiosis of this relationship, it presents a structural imbalance that originated the 2008 crisis.Keywords: 2008 International Financial Crisis; China; United States. Recebido em: 10/04/2021 | Aceito em: 17/07/2021.

Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

Research on the Formation, Breakthrough and Countermeasures of the Captive Governance Mode of China’s Sporting Goods Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Companies

The integration of China’s sporting goods industry into the global value chain (GVC) has brought opportunities for the development of the industry. However, the both-ends-abroad OEM production mode is "locked" in the low value-added processing and production link in the GVC, which is located at the lowest end of the GVC. When international financial crisis breaks out, the orders of domestic OEM companies decrease significantly, which directly affects the development of the companies. Thus, it indicates that China's sporting goods OEM companies should not rely too much on international processing and export trade, but to rely on the local market to build a national value chain (NVC), integrate domestic and foreign sellers and suppliers and form an orderly product competition and certain market share ability through corporate mergers and acquisitions, product outsourcing, etc. Through the leverage of NVC, leading companies can achieve the expansion of the competitive advantages. Cultivate domestic multinational companies that can compete with international multinational companies in NVC, so that they can focus on the governance and control of the core links of the value chain, realize independent product research and development, brand and sales channel construction, support and help small and medium-sized domestic enterprises take the path of professional development in NVC, actively guide and encourage cooperation with the core to create value chain advantages, and achieve win-win cooperation and products’ functional upgrade.

METI’s Miraculous Comeback and the Uncertain Future of Japanese Industrial Policy

If the industrial policy of Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) gained acclaim for having created an “economic miracle” in the 1950s and 1960s, a spirited counterattack arose in the 1980s, and by time of the bursting of the financial bubble in the 1990s, industrial policy increasingly looked like an outmoded and discredited relic. Events then took an unexpected turn: MITI (since 2001 called the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, or METI) managed to turn a series of bureaucratic and political reforms and upheavals into opportunities for institutional rebirth, while once-proud Japanese companies struggled. Yet in Japan’s aging, slow-growth economy, reigniting dynamism has proved difficult. Efforts to enhance economy-wide productivity have made some progress, but have yet to overcome the obstacles to growth. METI’s expanded jurisdiction and reinforced political support have been matched by demands to enhance the viability of Japanese firms to meet the new competitive pressures and security threats from China and Korea, and even the United States. In some cases, notably the electronics industry, industrial policy has ended up bailing out failing firms. In the crucial automobile industry, in contrast, industrial policy has made significant contributions even as the leading firms have gone global, but METI has received little credit. Continued political support is not guaranteed. Outside Japan, the international financial crisis of 2008–2009, the failure of many developing countries to surmount an apparent middle-income trap, and the rise of China have converged to spark renewed interest in industrial policy and the experience of Japan.

The IDB Group in the Central American Isthmus and the Dominican Republic: Activities Report 2020

2020 was an unprecedented year for Central America and the Dominican Republic. The effect of the global COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by the impact of Hurricanes Eta and Iota in some countries, caused the greatest economic contraction the region has undergone in its recent history - surpassing the debt crisis of the 1980s and the international financial crisis of 2009. In 2020, the IDB Group helped the countries in the region respond to these emergencies through approvals that exceeded US$ 4,900 million and disbursements of more than US$ 4,327 million, both reaching historical records. This report highlights the Groups main activities in Central America and the Dominican Republic in 2020 at the regional and country level.

The Impact of Working Capital Management on Firm Operational Performance Through Business Cycles

This chapter aims to analyze the impact of working capital management on firm's profitability, considering economic downturn and boom periods. Analyzing Portuguese firms from 2006-2019 results show that cash conversion cycle, as well as days sales outstanding, days sales inventories, and days payment outstanding decreased after 2009 due to the international financial crisis. When the length of cash conversion cycle increases, firm return on assets also increases. This situation happens especially in recession periods, when sales decrease. Results also exhibit singularities across industries. In some sectors, the impact of working capital management in firm return is positive, while in industries with greater cash conversion periods, the impact is negative. The findings also reveal the impact of financial debt and economic growth on operational profitability. Managers need to focus on short-term financing practices to increase firm profits and create value.

CSR on Financial Markets

Financial institutions can make a substantial contribution to promoting the principles of sustainable development among their main stakeholders, namely portfolio investors and financial consumers. The challenges posed by climate change have led to the intensification of the financial innovation process and the emergence of new financial instruments such as green bonds and sustainability indices. Their success was due both to the involvement of international institutions that have developed various voluntary principles for companies and to portfolio investors who understood their role in the new context and bought new types of securities. Therefore, the efforts of both sides are bearing fruit in an environment in which confidence must be regained after the earthquake generated by the international financial crisis and the image crisis that financial institutions are facing.

12. Politics and Markets

The political economy of Europe has changed significantly in the last four decades because of globalization, the collapse of communism, and financial crises. This chapter first discusses the different varieties of capitalism that emerged in Europe after World War II. It looks at how they have been put under pressure by economic internationalization and the dominance of neoliberal ideas, which together have weakened economic management at nation-state level. The chapter also looks at the development of capitalism in Eastern Europe and explanations for variance in post-communist capitalist development. Finally, the chapter considers the challenges to the management of Europe’s political economy posed by the international financial crisis that dominated much of Europe’s politics after 2007, along with the initial response to the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

A Big Data Analytics Approach for Dynamic Feedback Warning for Complex Systems

With the development of science and technology, the application of big data is becoming more and more widespread, and it has gradually expanded to various fields such as economy and commerce. Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the mainstream economics has shown deficiencies to a certain extent. On the one hand, the expressions pursued by mainstream economic theories are too strict, restricting its processing capabilities. On the other hand, the linearization method ignores the diversity, complexity, and variability of changes in the economic system, which may ignore the emergence of some serious crises. Due to the increasing distance between theoretical models and practice, theoretical models cannot guide the practice and sometimes even mislead the latter. In this paper, we propose a method of dynamic feedback early warning based on big data, which uses the LPPL model to fit parameters. Finally, we used this method to analyze the case of the A-share disaster. The research results show that the method makes the early warning coefficients of dynamic and complex systems more scientific and accurate.

The COVID-19 and bond spreads

Financial markets reacted with a vengeance to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that while the spread of the pandemic is statistically significant in explaining changes to bond spreads, it has little additional explanatory power over variables that capture financial stress. Financial markets reacted as in any international financial crisis by penalizing emerging economies exposing existing vulnerabilities. This finding highlights the need for credible, but flexible, sovereign currencies and the need to build up liquidity reserves.