Learning of Negative Cue Validities as a Function of Statistical Sophistication and Instruction

The effects of cue-criterion instructions on subjects' achievement, consistency, and matching were examined. The probability-learning task involved two cues which were negatively related to the criterion. Subjects varied in their degree of mathematical training prior to the experiment. On all measures, mathematical sophistication enhanced rate of performance. Increasingly detailed information about cue-criterion relationships and negative linear functions greatly improved level of achievement, demonstrating that subjects can immediately utilize a negative rule if given thorough instruction. Results are discussed with respect to their implications concerning theoretical probability-learning processes and suggestions for improving human decision-making in probabilistic environments.