scholarly journals Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Dynamics in the Euro Area – The Role of Sentiment Indicators

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Gajewski
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fixed Length ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Cross Correlations

The paper compares the most closely watched sentiment indicators with respect to their ability to nowcast quarterly GDP dynamics in the Euro Area and its biggest economies. We analyse cross-correlations and out-of-sample forecast errors generated from equations estimated by rolling regressions in fixed-length window. The results show that models employing PMI Composite perform best in the cases of the Euro Area, Germany, France and Italy, whilst Spanish GDP dynamics is best nowcasted using ESI-based models. PMI-based models generate the most accurate nowcasts at the beginning of the quarter, as well as during periods of high volatility of GDP growth rates.

The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 400-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Girardi ◽  
Christian Gayer ◽  
Andreas Reuter
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Gdp Growth

Exploring the Causes of Immiserizing Growth: A Comparison of Pathways

2019 ◽  
pp. 106-136
Author(s):  
Benjamin Liu ◽  
Siyuan Yeo ◽  
John A. Donaldson
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
International System ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causal Pathways

Why do some countries experience long bouts of immiserizing growth? This chapter identifies and examines a handful of countries that over at least a five-year period experienced positive GDP growth rates of at least 2 per cent per year while simultaneously experiencing declines in the income of the bottom 20 per cent. Process tracing reveals that the diverse cases traversed three distinct causal pathways: structural reforms (Dominican Republic, 1984–9), structural transformation (Singapore 1978–83), and the systematic exclusion of indigenous populations from the benefits of growth (Bolivia 1991–7). The conclusions have implications for our understanding of the political causes of immiserizing growth, the role of the international system in causing such incidents, and how cases that otherwise might be perceived as successful included the systematic exclusion of vulnerable portions of the population.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Makarov ◽  
C. Henry ◽  
V. P. Sergey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Climate Policies

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

Economic Growth and Macro Variables in India: An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The research objective of this paper is to explore the empirical linkages between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and trade openness in India (TOP) over the period 1980 to 2013. The study reveals a positive relationship between economic growth and FDI, GFCF and TOP. This study establishes a strong unidirectional causal flow from changes in FDI, trade openness and capital formation to the economic growth rates of India. The impulse response function traces the positive influence of these macro variables on the GDP growth rates of India. The study also reveals that the volatility of GDP growth rates in India is mainly attributed to the variation in the level of GFCF and FDI. The study concludes that the FDI inflows and the size of capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. In view of this, it is expected that the government of India should provide more policy focus on promoting FDI inflows and domestic capital formations to increase its economic growth in the long-term.

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