The "Tau" of Science - How to Measure, Study, and Integrate Quantitative and Qualitative Knowledge

Scientists' ability to integrate diverse forms of evidence and evaluate how well they can explain and predict phenomena, in other words, $\textit{to know how much they know}$, struggles to keep pace with technological innovation. Central to the challenge of extracting knowledge from data is the need to develop a metric of knowledge itself. A candidate metric of knowledge, $K$, was recently proposed by the author. This essay further advances and integrates that proposal, by developing a methodology to measure its key variable, symbolized with the Greek letter $\tau$ ("tau"). It will be shown how a $\tau$ can represent the description of any phenomenon, any theory to explain it, and any methodology to study it, allowing the knowledge about that phenomenon to be measured with $K$.To illustrate potential applications, the essay calculates $\tau$ and $K$ values of: logical syllogisms and proofs, mathematical calculations, empirical quantitative knowledge, statistical model selection problems, including how to correct for "forking paths" and "P-hacking" biases, randomised controlled experiments, reproducibility and replicability, qualitative analyses via process tracing, and mixed quantitative and qualitative evidence.Whilst preliminary in many respects, these results suggest that $K$ theory offers a meaningful understanding of knowledge, which makes testable metascientific predictions, and which may be used to analyse and integrate qualitative and quantitative evidence to tackle complex problems.

A qualitative assessment of QCA: method stretching in large-N studies and temporality

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is a descriptive research method that can provide causal explanations for an outcome of interest. Despite extensive quantitative assessments of the method, my objective is to contribute to the scholarly discussion with insights constructed through a qualitative lens. Researchers using the QCA approach have less ability to incorporate and nuance information on set membership as the number of cases grows. While recognizing the suggested ways to overcome such challenges, I argue that since setting criteria for membership, calibrating, and categorizing are crucial QCA aspects that require in-depth knowledge, QCA is unfit for larger-N studies. Additionally, I also discuss that while the method is able to identify various parts of a causal configuration—the ‘what’—it falls short to shed light on the ‘how’ and ‘why,’ especially when temporality matters. Researchers can complement it with other methods, such as process tracing and case studies, to fill in these missing explanatory pieces or clarify contradictions—which begs the question of why they would also choose to use QCA.

Demystifying mercury geochemistry in contaminated soil–groundwater systems with complementary mercury stable isotope, concentration, and speciation analyses

A holistic multi-analyses (led by Hg stable isotope analysis), multi-media, multi-site approach to improving contaminated site Hg geochemistry, particularly process tracing.

Participatory Budgeting: Case Study of Possible Causes of Failures

Participatory budgeting is perhaps the most widespread and popular form of democratic innovation (DI). It is often identified as an appropriate tool to deepen the democracy at the local level. The text shows that this is not always the case, as some elected officials may use it as a innovation “façade” or its design suffers from various forms of imperfections leading to its failure to be implemented. The authors focus on the practice of participatory budgeting and its failures in the Czech Republic. Through the empirical testing of causal mechanism, the article reveals the main causes of that failure, in the case of its implementation in Prague 7 borough. The mechanism presented is based on the theory-testing minimal process-tracing design in which part of the findings of the previous research have been tested. It also attempts to support empirically only the significant steps of the mechanism between cause and outcome. In particular, the three scope conditions are tested: political support, sufficient funding for participatory budgeting and the existence of a source of know-how. Authors conclude that in the selected case, there was a domino effect of failure, with successive failures in all observed conditions, which ultimately led to a complete brake of causal mechanism and failure of participatory budgeting tool.

Movement tracking of cognitive processes: A tutorial using mousetrap

Movement tracking is a novel process tracing method promising unique access to the temporal dynamics of cognitive processes. The method involves high-resolution tracking of the hand or handheld devices, e.g., a computer mouse, while they are used to make a choice. In contrast to other process tracing methods, which mostly focus on information acquisition, movement tracking focuses on the processes of information integration and preference formation. In this article, we present a tutorial to movement tracking of cognitive processes with the mousetrap R package. We will address all steps of the research process from design to interpretation, with a particular focus on data processing and analysis. Using a representative working example, we will demonstrate how the various steps of movement tracking analysis can be implemented with mousetrap and provide thorough explanations on their theoretical background and interpretation. Finally, we present a list of recommendations to assist researchers in addressing their own research question using movement tracking of cognitive processes.

A formação insubordinada do professor fundamentada em sua leitura do software de programação

Diante da atual cultura digital sente-se necessidade de novas aprendizagens, práticas criativas e éticas, de formação insubordinada criativa do educador. A leitura do professor de software de programação e uso como instrumento para além do letramento digital é vista sob abordagem antiessencialista da tecnologia por meio da metáfora: máquina-texto, design-autor e usuário-leitor. O estudo de caso traz a técnica process tracing, pouco utilizada nas pesquisas brasileiras em educação. Parte-se de formação inicial em Scratch, busca-se as manifestações reais e hipotetiza-se o mecanismo causal que intermedia a formação-causa e uso em sala-resultado. Evidências previstas e avaliadas são especificadas nos casos. Por fim, apresenta-se um modelo generalizável de formação de professores em TDIC em prol da ampliação e contribuição à sua reflexão.

Maintaining Effort and Interest despite Challenges during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Process Tracing Approach to a Teacher’s Grit during an Online L2 Course

Grit—the ability to maintain effort and interest for long-term goals—is argued to be an important individual factor for achievement, especially in the face of obstacles. However, little research has examined the possible fluctuations of effort and interest and how challenges may trigger the changes of effort and interest. In this study, we measured a teacher’s grit at the beginning of an online course during the COVID-19 pandemic, and we focused on the changes in a teacher’s effort and interest throughout the course. In this case study we unpacked the explanations of possible changes in grit via process tracing. Despite the fact that the teacher scored high on the grit scale, we found that the sudden shift from in-person to online teaching had put much pressure and demand on the teacher. The new teaching challenge influenced the teacher’s self-evaluation of their teaching performance and students’ engagement, which led to changes in effort and interest. Therefore, we argue that one’s average grit (e.g., measured by grit scale) cannot be the representation of their ability to maintain interest and effort on different occasions due to the influence of different situational causes or pressure. Specifically, during the course, the teacher’s effort and interest underwent changes on four occasions, characterized by four distinct dynamic patterns in terms of the interaction of high and low interest and effort. The four emerging patterns of L2 teacher effort and interest indicate that the construct of grit could be explained in terms of four dynamic clusters or archetypes. This study provides implications for understanding the complex dynamic nature of grit, which can be further explored through cluster analytic approaches in future studies.

Evolución de las relaciones bilaterales entre Brasil y Chile desde la política “Convergencia en la Diversidad”

En este artículo se argumenta que Chile se ha convertido en el aliado de Brasil para promover la convergencia entre el Mercosur y la Alianza del Pacífico desde el lanzamiento de la política de “Convergencia en la Diversidad” (2014) hasta la actualidad. Se demuestra cómo las percepciones brasileñas sobre Chile se formaron desde el abordaje constructivista de las Relaciones Internacionales y utilizando el process-tracing como método de análisis. Se examinaron las declaraciones y proposiciones brasileñas en las siguientes fuentes: documentos oficiales de los gobiernos brasileños, actas de las reuniones del Grupo Mercado Común, Comunicado Conjunto de los Presidentes del Mercosur, telegramas del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Brasil y declaraciones disponibles en los sitios web oficiales de Brasil y Chile. Los resultados señalan que la política de “Convergencia en la Diversidad” y los lazos bilaterales con Chile han consolidado la percepción del Brasil de que Chile es su aliado para promover la convergencia entre los bloques y que esa percepción sigue prevaleciendo, pese a los cambios de gobierno en ambos países. También se destaca que tales percepciones han tenido impactos para el fortalecimiento de los lazos bilaterales entre Brasil y Chile en otras áreas.

The Credible Commitment Problem in the Third-Party Mediation of the Mindanao Peace Process, 1975–2014

Negotiated settlements of civil wars are challenging since incompatibilities take a long time to resolve. Many scholars have approached this puzzle by identifying information asymmetry and commitment problems as critical deterrents to resolution. Similarly, this article argues that third-party mediation could improve or worsen the parties’ credible commitment problems, as illustrated in the Mindanao peace process mediation that spanned almost four decades. Following a contingency framework in analyzing third-party mediation, this article analyzes existing reports, statements, and peace process agreements using a process tracing methodology. The article argues that the success of a peace process could be attributed to how mediation resolves the parties’ credible commitment problems, which are evident in three aspects of the peace process: getting the parties to negotiate, the use of mediator leverage, and the promise of third-party monitoring and enforcement.

Institucionalización de políticas anticorrupción a través del apoyo de misiones internacionales

Las misiones internacionales contra la corrupción son una herramienta novedosa para países afectados por graves casos de corrupción y por la infiltración de redes ilícitas en el sector público. Estas misiones se establecen tras un acuerdo entre un Estado y una organización internacional para la identificación y la desarticulación de las redes ilícitas, así como para recibir apoyo técnico internacional en la lucha contra la corrupción. En esta investigación se examinan las fallas de institucionalización de las políticas públicas anticorrupción difundidas por las misiones internacionales y se comprueba la relación causal a través del diseño de políticas públicas y process tracing. El mecanismo causal teórico consiste, primero, en el análisis desde la configuración de la agenda contra la corrupción; segundo, la formulación de la política pública anticorrupción; tercero, el fallo en el cambio institucional para desarticular redes; cuarto, los dilemas en interacciones políticas en transparencia; lo anterior da como resultado la falla en la institucionalización de políticas y el déficit de controles democráticos. En particular, se trata el caso de la Comisión Internacional Contra la Impunidad en Guatemala (CICIG) establecida por el gobierno de Guatemala y las Naciones Unidas desde el año 2007 hasta su disolución en 2019. Este caso es significativo para analizar el rol e impacto de misiones internacionales como una herramienta anticorrupción para los Estados. En esta investigación se demuestra que estas misiones poseen un dilema de institucionalización de políticas en el país beneficiario por problemas de continuidad respecto al diseño y el contexto de políticas, mutación de las redes de corrupción en el sistema público y por sus límites de intervención en la reestructuración institucional del Estado.