Linkages between gold and emerging Asian stock markets: New evidence from the Chinese stock market crash

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
New Evidence

This study examines the return and volatility transmission between gold and nine emerging Asian Stock Markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. We use the VAR-AGARCH model to estimate return and volatility spillovers over the period from January 2000 through June 30, 2018. The results reveal the substantial return and volatility spillovers between the gold and emerging Asian stock markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. However, these return and volatility transmissions vary across the pairs of stock markets and the financial crises. Besides, we analyze the optimal portfolios and hedge ratios between gold and emerging Asian stock markets during all sample periods. Our findings have important implications for effective hedging and diversification strategies, asset pricing and risk management.

scholarly journals Linkages between gold and emerging Asian stock markets: New evidence from the Chinese stock market crash

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
New Evidence

This study examines the return and volatility transmission between gold and nine emerging Asian Stock Markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. We use the VAR-AGARCH model to estimate return and volatility spillovers over the period from January 2000 through June 30, 2018. The results reveal the substantial return and volatility spillovers between the gold and emerging Asian stock markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. However, these return and volatility transmissions vary across the pairs of stock markets and the financial crises. Besides, we analyze the optimal portfolios and hedge ratios between gold and emerging Asian stock markets during all sample periods. Our findings have important implications for effective hedging and diversification strategies, asset pricing and risk management.

Return and Volatility Transmissions between Metals and Stocks: A Study of the Emerging Asian Markets by Using the VAR-AGARCH Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 2040020
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Entire Period ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Industrial Metals

This study examines the return and volatility transmission/spillover between (Precious and Industrial) metals and stocks in the emerging Asian markets in the entire studying period and the two crisis sub-periods: the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Chinese Stock market crash sub-periods, and the normal sub-period that does not have any crisis. In addition, we estimate the optimal weights and hedge ratios for both metals and stocks. Employing the VAR-AGARCH model to estimate spillover, the results reveal the unidirectional return spillover from both precious and industrial metals to most of the Asian equity markets in the entire period as well as in the GFC and normal sub-periods but not the sub-period of the Chinese stock market crash. Besides, we reveal that there are unidirectional or bidirectional volatility transmissions between most of the precious metals and the Asian stock markets during the entire period and all the sub-periods. In contrast, the volatility spillover is not significant between most of the industrial metals and Asian stock markets during the entire period and all the sub-periods. On the other hand, our analysis on both optimal weight and hedge ratios suggests that adding nearly any metal to a portfolio of emerging Asian stocks improves its risk-adjusted return and helps to effectively hedge against stock risk exposure over both crisis and non-crisis sub-periods. Overall, these findings provide useful insights for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, and risk management.

scholarly journals Return and Volatility Transmission between World-Leading and Latin American Stock Markets: Portfolio Implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study uses the BEKK-GARCH model to examine the return-and-volatility spillover between the world-leading markets (USA and China) and four emerging Latin American stock markets over the global financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of the Chinese stock market of 2015. Regarding return spillover, our findings reveal a unidirectional return transmission from Mexico to the US stock market during the global financial crisis. During the crash of the Chinese stock market, the return spillover is found to be unidirectional from the US to the Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru stock markets. Moreover, the results indicate a unidirectional return transmission from China to the Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru stock markets during the global financial crisis and the crash of the Chinese stock market. Regarding volatility spillover, the results show the bidirectional volatility transmission between the US and the stock markets of Chile and Mexico during the global financial crisis. During the Chinese crash, the bidirectional volatility transmission is observed between the US and Mexican stock markets. Furthermore, the volatility spillover is unidirectional from China to the Brazil stock market during the global financial crisis. During the Chinese crash, the volatility spillover is bidirectional between the China and Brazil stock markets. Lastly, a portfolio analysis application has been conducted.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Volatility Spillover Effect between World-Leading and the Asian Stock Markets: Implications for Portfolio Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 226
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Optimal Weights ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

This study employs the Vector Autoregressive-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VAR-AGARCH) model to examine both return and volatility spillovers from the USA (developed) and China (Emerging) towards eight emerging Asian stock markets during the full sample period, the US financial crisis, and the Chinese Stock market crash. We also calculate the optimal weights and hedge ratios for the stock portfolios. Our results reveal that both return and volatility transmissions vary across the pairs of stock markets and the financial crises. More specifically, return spillover was observed from the US and China to the Asian stock markets during the US financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash, and the volatility was transmitted from the USA to the majority of the Asian stock markets during the Chinese stock market crash. Additionally, volatility was transmitted from China to the majority of the Asian stock markets during the US financial crisis. The weights of American stocks in the Asia-US portfolios were found to be higher during the Chinese stock market crash than in the US financial crisis. For the majority of the Asia-China portfolios, the optimal weights of the Chinese stocks were almost equal during the Chinese stock market crash and the US financial crisis. Regarding hedge ratios, fewer US stocks were required to minimize the risk for Asian stock investors during the US financial crisis. In contrast, fewer Chinese stocks were needed to minimize the risk for Asian stock investors during the Chinese stock market crash. This study provides useful information to institutional investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers regarding optimal asset allocation and risk management.

scholarly journals The source of financial contagion and spillovers: An evaluation of the covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0261835
Author(s):  
Samet Gunay ◽  
Gokberk Can
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the reaction of stock markets to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) and compares their influence in terms of risk exposures. The empirical investigation is conducted using the modified ICSS test, DCC-GARCH, and Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness analysis to examine financial contagion and volatility spillovers. To further reveal the impact of these two crises, the statistical features of tranquil and crisis periods under different time intervals are also compared. The test results show that although the outbreak’s origin was in China, the US stock market is the source of financial contagion and volatility spillovers during the pandemic, just as it was during the GFC. The propagation of shocks is considerably higher between developed economies compared to emerging markets. Additionally, the results show that the COVID-19 pandemic induced a more severe contagious effect and risk transmission than the GFC. The study provides an extensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the GFC in terms of financial contagion and volatility spillovers. The results suggest the presence of strong co-movements of world stock markets with the US equity market, especially in periods of financial turmoil.

Return and Volatility Spillovers Effects: Study of Asian Emerging Stock Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhowmik Roni ◽  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract This paper examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the six Asian emerging countries stock markets (e.g., Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, the Philippine, and South Korea) and then try to quantify the extent of the Asian emerging market fluctuations which are described by intra-regional contagion effect. These markets experienced both fast growth and key upheaval during the sample period, and thus, provide potentially rich information on the nature of border market interactions. Using the daily stock market index data from January 2002 to December 2016 (breaking the 15 years data set into three sub periods; pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods); particularly make attention to the global financial crisis of 2007∼2008. The return and volatility spillovers are modeled through the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity), pairwise Granger causality tests, and the forecast error variance decomposition in a generalized VAR (vector auto regression) models. This paper shows that volatility and return spillovers behave very differently over time, during the pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods. Importantly, Asian emerging stock markets interaction is less before the global financial crisis period. The return and volatility spillover indices touch their respective historical peaks during the global financial crisis 2007∼2008, however Bangladeshi market faces this condition in 2009∼2010.

scholarly journals The Contagion from the 2007-09 US Stock Market Crash

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnulfo M. Castellanos ◽  
Francisco S. Vargas ◽  
Luis G. Rentería
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Initial Point ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Mathematical Tool ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The global financial crisis that took place during the period 2007-09 had its most prominent manifestation in the general stock market crash. This could be studied from the perspective of financial contagion, using a mathematical tool known as wavelets. This paper aims to assess the impact of the US stock market crash on the other stock markets all over the world. As an initial point the assumption that the former was the epicenter of the global financial crisis stands out. In order to determine the existence of differentiated impacts that show the presence of inertial factors in different stock exchange markets, a filtering technique is used on stock market indexes to assess such impacts. The data series are worked out on different time scales in order to identify short and long term effects.  

scholarly journals GARCH (1,1) Models and Analysis of Stock Market Turmoil during COVID-19 Outbreak in an Emerging and Developed Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 576
Author(s):  
Budi Setiawan ◽  
Marwa Ben Abdallah ◽  
Maria Fekete-Farkas ◽  
Robert Jeyakumar Nathan ◽  
Zoltan Zeman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 pandemic has led to uncertainties in the financial markets around the globe. The pandemic has caused volatilities in the financial market at varying magnitudes, in the emerging versus developed economy. To examine this phenomenon, this study investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatility in an emerging economy, i.e., Indonesia, versus developed country, i.e., Hungary, using an event-study approach methodology utilizing GARCH (1,1) model. In this study, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and the b (BUX) data were obtained from Investing and Bloomberg, covering two global events observed within the selected period from 27 September 2006 to 31 August 2021. The data is compared with the stock market volatility data from the global financial crisis in 2007/08. Findings reveal that the recent COVID-19 pandemic had negative stock market returns at a greater magnitude compared to the global financial crisis, in both the emerging and developed economy’s equity market. Stock markets in Indonesia and Hungary have experienced volatility during the crisis. While comparing the result between COVID-19 and the global financial crisis, we found that the volatility on the stock markets is higher in the COVID-19 pandemic than during the global financial crisis. The higher stock market negative returns and volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the lockdown and limited economic activities, which impacted supply and demand shock. The virus’s propagation and mutation are continually evolving, reminding us that the pandemic is far from over. Developed countries with larger fiscal space seem to find it easier to make responsive policies than countries with a tighter financial budget. Fiscal and monetary policies seem to be a quick solution to stabilize the economy and maintain investor confidence in the Indonesian and Hungarian capital markets. Furthermore, the extension of stock market volatility understanding ensures relevant information for investors, which benefits to mitigate the risk and build sustainable investments of the unprecedented events and enables the promotion of Sustainable Development Goal number 8 (SDG8) to communities, with access to financial products including the stock market, especially during economic and financial uncertainties.

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