scholarly journals Credit rating agencies and the European sovereign debt crisis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Freitag
Author(s):  
Aline Darbellay

Since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, the leading credit rating agencies (CRAs) have faced an increasing level of legal and regulatory scrutiny in the United States (US) and in the European Union (EU). This chapter sheds light on the promise and perils of sovereign credit ratings in the light of the European sovereign debt crisis. The leading CRAs have been blamed for providing investors with inaccurate credit ratings, facing inappropriate incentives and lack of oversight. This chapter addresses the evolving function performed by CRAs over the past century. Traditionally, CRAs are private market actors assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers and debt instruments. Since the first sovereign bond ratings assigned in 1918, the rating business has grown in size and importance. Sovereign ratings supposedly predict financial distress of governments. Their role has shifted over the last four decades. Although they have repeatedly been blamed for being poor predictors of sovereign debt crises, CRAs continue to play a key role in modern capital markets.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred Gartner ◽  
Bjorn Griesbach

We explore whether governments may have faced scenarios of self-fulfilling prophecy and multiple equilibria during Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. To this end, we estimate the effect of interest rates and other macroeconomic variables on sovereign debt ratings, and of ratings on interest rates. We detect a nonlinear effect of ratings on interest rates which is strong enough to permit multiple equilibria. The good equilibrium is stable, ratings are excellent and interest rates are low. A second unstable equilibrium marks a threshold beyond which the country slides towards an insolvency trap. Coefficient estimates suggest that countries should stay well within the A segment of the rating scale in order to remain safe from being driven towards default.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document