Russia's central bank will anticipate sanction risks

Significance Because the risk of sanctions was priced into Russian bond prices and the ruble exchange rate, the market reaction to the measures announced on April 15 was muted. US investors can still buy and hold OFZs and Eurobonds on the secondary market, but the prospect of further restrictions are possible. Impacts Sanctions risks will weigh down Russia's sovereign credit rating for the foreseeable future. Diminished liquidity in the bond market will make it difficult to price new Russian corporate debt, particularly for new issuers. Strong economic fundamentals and high foreign reserves will encourage foreign investors to return once uncertainty subsides.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Asian Financial Markets

Each region/country seeks to become more efficient to gain the confidence of potential investors. Most of the Asian economies are categorized as emerging markets, where the role of financial markets has even become more intensified to provide financial services to increasing economic and financial activities. Asian financial market has momentously suffered during the Asian, and global financial crisis. The mass destruction was mainly caused due to the mounting uncertainty, which spillover throughout the region, where investors lost their confidence. Considering the pivotal economic role of financial markets, and implications evolve due to sovereign credit rating announcements, this study aims to model the role of sovereign credit rating announcements by Standard and Poor’s, and Moody’s on financial market development of the Asian region. For 24 Asian countries/regions, we perform a regression analysis on sovereign credit rating changes based on financial market development index and its factors. The findings of Driscoll Kraay’s robust estimator reveals that improvement in sovereign credit rating score enhances the financial market development in the region. Moreover, we applied several robustness checks, such as alternative estimators, alternative measures, and three sub-dimensions of financial market development. According to the findings from these robustness checks, the positive impact of sovereign credit ratings on financial market development in the region is robust. Unlike prior literature (which is confined to the event study approach), this study utilizes the historical grades to establish the relationship under the standard error clustering approach. Due to the diversity of investors’ speculations, we propose a micro-level extension of the present model to overcome a difference in country policy.

Determination of Sovereign Credit Rating Model for European Countries

Credit rating agencies play a key role in financial markets, as they help to reduce asymmetric information among market participants via credit ratings. The credit ratings determined by the credit rating agencies reflect the opinion of whether a country can fulfil the liability or its credit reliability at a particular time. Therefore, credit ratings are a very valuable tool, especially for investors. In addition, the issue that credit rating agencies are generally criticised is that they are unsuccessful in times of financial crisis. Credit rating methodologies of credit rating agencies have been subject to intense criticism, especially after the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis. Some of the criticised issues are that credit rating agencies’ methodologies are not transparent; they are unable to make ratings on time, and they make incorrect ratings. In order to create a more reliable credit rating methodology, the credit rating industry and the ratings determined by rating agencies need to be critically examined and further investigated in this area. For this reason, in this study credit rating model has been developed for countries. Supervisory and regulatory variables, political indicators and macroeconomic factors were used as independent variables for the sovereign credit rating model. As a result of the study, the new sovereign credit rating calculates exactly the same credit rating with Fitch Rating Agency for developed countries, but there are 1 or 2 points differences for developing countries. In order to better understand the reason for these differences, credit rating agencies need to make their methodologies more transparent and disclose them to the public.

Sovereign credit rating and contagion effects on financial markets of Asian region

This article studies the contagion effects on the emerging financial markets of the Asian region. The contagion effect is manifested in the change of interconnection degree of financial markets after the shock in one of the countries of the region. In the paper, we consider the information on potential or actual change in sovereign credit rating as a shock leading to a contagion effect. Our sample includes evidence from 7 Asian countries covering the period from 2000 to 2018. We use the DCC-GARCH model which allows us to take into account the peculiarities of financial data behavior. We intend to show the effect of inconsistencies in ratings assigned by various agencies on strengthening or weakening the processes of contagion on Asia’s stock markets. We also study the impact of historical inconsistencies between credit rating outlooks and actual rating changes on the level of «trust» to credit outlooks in the future. In assessing the impact of discrepancies we assume that the market remembers recent events better than more distant in time. We were able to confirm the impact of inconsistencies in the ratings given by different rating agencies for China, Hong Kong, and India. In addition, we found that the presence of inconsistencies between the outlooks and actual rating updates in the past tend to weaken the trust regarding positive outlooks rather than negative ones.

Examining the Factors Affecting Sovereign Credit Rating of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Despite the controversy surrounding the credibility of credit rating agencies’ rating systems, these agencies' ratings still play a crucial role in determining the premium paid by governments on their bonds. As a result, obtaining a high sovereign credit rating would lower borrowing costs and more demand for their bonds. In order to do so, policymakers should be aware of the factors that mostly affect the sovereign credit rating of their countries. While there are many factors credit rating agencies consider when assigning a sovereign credit rating for any country, this study aims to identify the factors that mostly affect Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ sovereign credit ratings assigned by the biggest three credit rating agencies, Standard and Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch. This study is based on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) data 2012–2018. Results obtained from this research show that interest rate, government debt to GDP ratio, GDP per capita, and the labeling of the country as developed or developing country was the variables that mostly affect the S&P rating. GDP per capita and government debt to GDP were the factors that most influenced Moody’s scores. In contrast, GDP, interest rate, transparency score, government debt to GDP, and GDP per capita were the factors that most affect Fitch's credit rating scores. The results also revealed that in 2018, Kuwait was the most overrated country, while Oman was the most underrated country.

China’s Path Selection in Global Governance Reform

With the rise of China, reforming the global governance institutions has become an important part of China’s diplomacy. Based on whether to build new international rules or reinterpret or redeploy the existing ones, we can divide the rising power’s paths in global governance reform into four types: displacement, layering, conversion and avoidance. Why does China adopt different paths toward reforming the existing international institutions which are dominated by the U.S.? Building on the theory of “gradual institutional change” in historical institutionalism, this article argues that the veto capability of the established power and the flexibility of the existing international institution are two determinants of the rising power’s path selection in global governance reform. It applies this theoretical framework to explain China’s behaviour in four issue areas: sovereign credit rating, the international monetary system, free trade agreements and multilateral development banks. In sovereign credit rating, the strong veto capability of the U.S. and the low flexibility of the existing international credit rating institution make China adopt the path of avoidance. In the international monetary system, the strong veto capability of the U.S. and the high flexibility of the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights make China adopt the path of layering. In free trade agreements, the weak veto capability of the U.S. and low flexibility of the Trans-Pacific Partnership make China adopt the path of displacement. In multilateral development banks, the weak veto capability of the U.S. and high flexibility of World Bank rules make China adopt the path of conversion.

Barbados

Recent Developments and Outlook. Barbados has continued to make good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth—but now faces a major challenge owing to the global coronavirus pandemic. Since May 2018, international reserves have recovered, helping rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. This has helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework, though reserves are expected to be negatively impacted by the crisis in the months ahead. The completion of the external debt restructuring in December 2019 has reduced economic uncertainty, and the agreed terms with creditors have put public debt on a clear downward trajectory. On December 11, 2019, Standard and Poor’s upgraded Barbados’ foreign currency sovereign credit rating from Selective Default to B-. However, prospects for 2020 have deteriorated significantly owing to the global pandemic, and risks to the outlook are now very high and tilted to the downside.