scholarly journals Pandemic H1N1 influenza: predicting the course of a pandemic and assessing the efficacy of the planned vaccination programme in the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (41) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Towers ◽  
Z Feng

We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Alex Dierig ◽  
Gulam Khandaker ◽  
Robert Booy

Influenza is generally an acute, self-limiting, febrile illness without further complications in the majority of people. However, it can be associated with severe morbidity and mortality and the burden of the disease on society is likely to be underestimated. In 2009 an outbreak of H1N1 influenza A virus infection was detected in Mexico with further cases soon observed worldwide. Subsequently, in June 2009, the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century due to influenza A (H1N1) was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO). There were many uncertainties regarding the virulence, clinical symptoms and epidemiological features of this newly evolved influenza A strain. Over time, many similarities, but also some differences between the pandemic H1N1 influenza A and seasonal influenza were identified. We recently performed a systematic review of the literature, looking at articles published between 1 April 2009 and 31 January 2010, to identify the epidemiological and clinical features of the pandemic H1N1 influenza. In this current article we compare our findings with others from the international literature. There was more severe impact on young and healthy adults, children, pregnant women and the obese. Clinical features in general were similar between seasonal and pandemic influenza; however, there were more gastrointestinal symptoms associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza. Shortness of breath was characteristic of more severe pH1N1 2009 infection with a higher possibility of being admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU).


PLoS Medicine ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. e1000207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne M. Presanis ◽  
Daniela De Angelis ◽  
Angela Hagy ◽  
Carrie Reed ◽  
Steven Riley ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. 834-841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh K Chudasama ◽  
Umed V Patel ◽  
Pramod B Verma

Introduction: This study investigated the clinico-epidemiological characteristics of patients who were hospitalized with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus infection and seasonal influenza in the Saurashtra region of India. Methodology: From September 2009 to February 2010, a total of 773 patients with influenza virus attending different hospitals in Rajkot city were studied. Real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) testing was used to confirm infection; the clinico-epidemiological features of the disease were closely monitored. Results: Of the 733 patients, 35.4% (274/773) were cases of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza and 64.6% (499/773) were cases of seasonal influenza. Of the 274 patients with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza, the median age was 29.5 years, and 51.5% were males. Only 1.1% positive patients had recent travel history to an infected region. A median time of five days was observed from onset of illness to influenza A (H1N1) diagnosis, and a median time of six days was reported for hospital stay. All admitted influenza A (H1N1) patients received Oseltamivir drug, but only 16.1% received it within two days of onset of illness. One fourth of the admitted positive patients died. The most common symptoms were cough, fever, sore throat, and shortness of breath. The coexisting conditions were diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic pulmonary diseases, and pregnancy (p = 0.001). Chest radiography revealed 93% of the positive patients had pneumonia. Conclusion: The clinical course and outcomes of the 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus are comparable to those of the currently circulating seasonal influenza, with high mortality in influenza A (H1N1) patients.


2012 ◽  
Vol 206 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Hadler ◽  
T. N. Baker ◽  
V. Papadouka ◽  
A. M. France ◽  
C. Zimmerman ◽  
...  

PLoS Currents ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. RRN1042 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne M Presanis ◽  
Marc Lipsitch ◽  
Daniela De Angelis ◽  
Angie Hagy ◽  
Carrie Reed ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 1671-1678
Author(s):  
Randall T. Hayden ◽  
Megan T. Wick ◽  
Alicia B. Rodriguez ◽  
Angela M. Caliendo ◽  
Michael J. Mitchell ◽  
...  

Abstract Context.—The recent outbreak of pandemic influenza created enormous economic, logistical, and analytical challenges for clinical laboratories. Laboratory response represented a critical element in the care of affected patients, but little has been published regarding this aspect of the pandemic. Objective.—To assess the overall response of clinical diagnostic laboratories across the United States to the initial phase of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Design.—A 24-question survey was developed and distributed by e-mail to determine current influenza testing practices and how those practices were changed in response to the outbreak of 2009 H1N1 influenza. The survey was distributed to participants in the College of American Pathologists proficiency testing programs related to viral diagnostics. Survey questions focused on laboratory safety, communication of results, testing volume and resources, and whether changes in resource allocation or laboratory practice were anticipated in preparation for the 2009–2010 influenza season. Results.—A total of 24.3% (931) of laboratories responded to the survey. Overall, few laboratories reported changes in methodology in response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, although, notably, the number of centers using molecular amplification methods more than doubled, from 41 to 91. Turn-around time for result reporting and safety methods used were largely as expected for individual testing modalities. Shortages in staffing, testing supplies, and personal protective equipment were reported, but most sites were able to maintain operations and did not feel that patient care was negatively affected. Conclusion.—This report provides a comprehensive picture of clinical laboratory responses in the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. These data should assist in the continued laboratory management of this outbreak and in planning for future emerging infections.


2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (49) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Fleury ◽  
S Burrel ◽  
C Balick Weber ◽  
R Hadrien ◽  
P Blanco ◽  
...  

We observed a prolonged shedding of virus 14 and 28 days after symptom onset in two patients with pandemic H1N1 influenza, who did not have immunodepression and were treated with neuraminidase inhibitor. This prolonged shedding was not associated with the emergence of resistance mutation H275Y in the viral neuraminidase gene.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James A Koziol ◽  
Jan E Schnitzer

Pandemics of human influenza are when influenza viruses that have little or no immunity become capable of transmitting from one person to another. A novel H1N1 influenza virus was discovered in children in the southwest United States in April 2009. Retroactively, it was shown that these cases were the result of an ongoing epidemic in Mexico. A number of national vaccination programs were established in response to the pandemic. Surprisingly early clinical trials data from humans have shown that one dose of nonadjuvanted pandemic flu A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent, inactivated vaccine (pMIV), has resulted in a significant seroprotective response. This is despite previous studies showing no cross-reactivity between pandemic and seasonal H1N1 viruses.


2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 629-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simin Dashti-Khavidaki ◽  
Hossein Khalili ◽  
Farid Gholamalipour ◽  
Abdolreza Soudbakhsh ◽  
Azita Hajhossein Talasaz ◽  
...  

Introduction: Pandemic H1N1 influenza A (pdmH1N1) was a major health threat worldwide. Methodology:  A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. Cases of suspicious pdmH1N1 patients referred to the emergency ward of the hospital were enrolled in the study, regardless of whether the final location of treatment was the community, the hospital ward, or the intensive care unit.   Oseltamivir was administered within three hours of the patient's admission.  The median length of stay for hospitalized patients was 3 days. Results:  Gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea [164/434; 37.8%] and vomiting [98/434; 22.6%]) were the most common adverse reactions to oseltamivir in the study population, followed by dizziness (74/434; 17.1%). Out of 434 patients, 209 (48.2%) were treated in the community, 201 (46.3%) were admitted to the general ward in the hospital, and 24 (5.5%) were admitted to an ICU. Conclusions: This study provided insight on the effectiveness of oseltamivir in treating pandemic influenza A, as well as possible adverse reactions to the drug.  The study further drew attention to a variety of pdmH1N1 complications, in particular secondary bacterial pneumonia. We also determined that 2009 influenza A (H1N1) infection-related critical illness and mortality affected fewer elderly than younger patients. Additionally, it was shown that our approach to patients with suspected Influenza A/H1N1 virus in our hospital was compatible with World Health Organization pandemic flu guidelines in our country.


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