scholarly journals Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (26) ◽  
Author(s):  
N G Becker ◽  
D Wang ◽  
M Clements
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Early Estimate ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Interval Distribution

An early estimate of disease transmissibility is essential for a well-informed public health response to a newly emerged infectious disease. In this study, we ask what type and quantity of data are needed for useful estimation of the initial reproduction number (R). It is possible to estimate R from case incidence data alone when the growing incidence of cases displays a wave pattern, because the pattern provides information about the serial interval (the time elapsed between the onset of symptoms of a case and symptom onset in individuals infected by that case). When the mode of the serial interval distribution is small, 1.5 days or less, there is generally no informative wave pattern in the observed series of daily incidences. The precision of the estimate of R is then improved substantially by having some observations on the serial interval. For an infectious disease with characteristics such as those of influenza, an estimate of R able to inform plans to mitigate transmission is obtained when the cumulative incidence of cases reaches about 300 and about 10 observations on the serial interval are available.

scholarly journals Leveraging Health Department Capacities, Partnerships, and Health Insurance for Infectious Disease Response in Massachusetts, 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 75S-81S
Author(s):  
H. Dawn Fukuda ◽  
Liisa M. Randall ◽  
Thera Meehan ◽  
Kevin Cranston
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Public Health Laboratory ◽  
Health Programs ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Public Health Programs ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response

Policies facilitating integration of public health programs can improve the public health response, but the literature on approaches to integration across multiple system levels is limited. We describe the efforts of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health to integrate its HIV, viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted infection (STI), and tuberculosis response through policies that mandated contracted organizations to submit specimens for testing to the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory; co-test blood specimens for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and syphilis; integrate HIV, viral hepatitis, and STI disease surveillance and case management in a single data system; and implement an integrated infectious disease drug assistance program. From 2014 through 2018, the number of tests performed by the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory increased from 16 321 to 33 674 for HIV, from 11 054 to 33 670 for HCV, and from 19 169 to 30 830 for syphilis. Service contracts enabled rapid response to outbreaks of HIV, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B. Key challenges included lack of a billing infrastructure at the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory; the need to complete negotiations with insurers and to establish a retained revenue account to receive health insurance reimbursements for testing services; and time to train testing providers in phlebotomy for required testing. Investing in laboratory infrastructure; creating billing mechanisms to maximize health insurance reimbursement; proactively engaging providers, community members, and other stakeholders; and building capacity to transform practices are needed. Using multilevel policy approaches to integrate the public health response to HIV, STI, viral hepatitis, and tuberculosis is feasible and adaptable to other public health programs.

scholarly journals China’s effective control and other countries’ uncharted challenge against COVID-19: an epidemiological and modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingling Zheng ◽  
Qin Kang ◽  
Xiujuan Chen ◽  
Shuai Huang ◽  
Dong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
More Care ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Objective: In this study, we use the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) to comprise the COVID transmissibility across different countries.Methods: We used data from Jan 20, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020, on the number of newly confirmed cases, obtained from the reports published by the CDC, to infer the incidence of infectious over time. A two-step procedure was used to estimate the Rt. The first step used data on known index-secondary cases pairs, from publicly available case reports, to estimate the serial interval distribution. The second step estimated the Rt jointly from the incidence data and the information data in the first step. Rt was then used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China and typical countries worldwide. Results: Based on a total of 126 index-secondary cases pairs from 4 international regions, we estimated that the serial interval for SARS-2-CoV was 4.18 (IQR 1.92 – 6.65) days. Domestically, Rt of China, Hubei province, Wuhan had fallen below 1.0 on 9 Feb, 10 Feb and 13 Feb (Rt were 0.99±0.02, 0.99±0.02 and 0.96±0.02), respectively. Internationally, as of 26 Feb, statistically significant periods of COVID spread (Rt >1) were identified for most regions, except for Singapore (Rt was 0.92±0.17).Conclusions: The epidemic in China has been well controlled, but the worldwide pandemic has not been well controlled. Worldwide preparedness and vulnerability against COVID-19 should be regarded with more care.

scholarly journals Public health response to large influx of asylum seekers: implementation and timing of infectious disease screening

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Tiittala ◽  
Karolina Tuomisto ◽  
Taneli Puumalainen ◽  
Outi Lyytikäinen ◽  
Jukka Ollgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Disease Screening ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Health Response

A PUBLIC HEALTH RESPONSE TO CANCER CLUSTERS IN MISSOURI

1990 ◽  
Vol 132 (supp1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
JANICE R. DEVIER ◽  
ROSS C. BROWNSON ◽  
JOHN R. BAGBY ◽  
GALE M. CARLSON ◽  
JOHN R. CRELLIN
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Spatial Relations ◽  
Problem Definition ◽  
Preliminary Review ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Cancer Clusters ◽  
Two Stages

Abstract A protocol was developed in 1984 by the Missouri Department of Health to provide a systematic method for responding to citizen reports of cancer clusters. This protocol integrates public health and environmental expertise and includes two stages: the preliminary review and the investigation. The preliminary review is focused on problem definition and hypothesis generation. Cancer mortality and incidence data are reviewed. Information is gathered and verified through the efforts of citizens, local health officials, environmental staff, and the cancer program staff. Epidemlologic factors evaluated include type of cancer, temporal and spatial relations, population at risk, community profile, and possible environmental and occupational factors. The investigation is an expanded analytic study. Resources are focused on cancer inquiries that appear most likely to involve manageable common exposures. Program experience and protocol development highlights, including surveillance system improvement and educational programming, are described.

China’s effective control and other countries’ uncharted challenge against COVID-19: an epidemiological and modelling study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingling Zheng ◽  
Kang Qin ◽  
Xiujuan Chen ◽  
Shuai Huang ◽  
Dong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
More Care ◽  
Interval Distribution

BACKGROUND On the present trajectory, COVID is inevitably becoming a global epidemic, leading to concerns regarding the pandemic potential in China and other countries. OBJECTIVE In this study, we use the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) to comprise the COVID transmissibility across different countries. METHODS We used data from Jan 20, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020, on the number of newly confirmed cases, obtained from the reports published by the CDC, to infer the incidence of infectious over time. A two-step procedure was used to estimate the Rt. The first step used data on known index-secondary cases pairs, from publicly available case reports, to estimate the serial interval distribution. The second step estimated the Rt jointly from the incidence data and the information data in the first step. Rt was then used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China and typical countries worldwide. RESULTS Based on a total of 126 index-secondary cases pairs from 4 international regions, we estimated that the serial interval for SARS-2-CoV was 4.18. Domestically, Rt of China, Hubei province, Wuhan had fallen below 1.0 on 9 Feb, 10 Feb and 13 Feb, respectively. Internationally, as of 26 Feb, statistically significant periods of COVID spread (Rt >1) were identified for most regions, except for Singapore. CONCLUSIONS The epidemic in China has been well controlled, but the worldwide pandemic has not been well controlled. Worldwide preparedness and vulnerability against COVID-19 should be regarded with more care.

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