QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter 3, 2009

The development of global economy, which tends to recover, has provided good impacts to the domestic economy. Indonesia»s economy has potentials to grow better than the early estimate, both for the year of 2009 and for the year of 2010.In 2009, Indonesia»s economy was estimated to grow 4.0-4.5%, or higher than the previous estimate, which was 3.5-4.0%. Meanwhile, for 2010, the economic growth is estimated to reach 5.0-5.5%.

Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges

An early estimate of disease transmissibility is essential for a well-informed public health response to a newly emerged infectious disease. In this study, we ask what type and quantity of data are needed for useful estimation of the initial reproduction number (R). It is possible to estimate R from case incidence data alone when the growing incidence of cases displays a wave pattern, because the pattern provides information about the serial interval (the time elapsed between the onset of symptoms of a case and symptom onset in individuals infected by that case). When the mode of the serial interval distribution is small, 1.5 days or less, there is generally no informative wave pattern in the observed series of daily incidences. The precision of the estimate of R is then improved substantially by having some observations on the serial interval. For an infectious disease with characteristics such as those of influenza, an estimate of R able to inform plans to mitigate transmission is obtained when the cumulative incidence of cases reaches about 300 and about 10 observations on the serial interval are available.

Early estimate of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismic deformation

Para un sismo, el desplazamiento cosísmico absoluto de la falla puede calcularse con base de la localización, la profundidad focal, el mecanismo focal y la magnitud. Así, en base a informaciones provenientes de estaciones remotas, es posible estimar el desplazamiento cosísmico e inferir la correspondiente distribución de intensidades sísmicas. Se presenta el ejemplo del sismo de Wenchuan de 2008, M8.0, y se determina exitosamente la distribución de intensidades utilizando los desplazamientos cosísmicos más un modelo de velocidades. Una evaluación preliminar de intensidades es indispensable para efectos de un diagnóstico temprano del desastre y de una respuesta emergente efectiva en caso de un sismo destructor como el de 2008 en Wenchuan, China.

Prospects for the UK Economy

We expect the economy to contract by 4.4 per cent this year, a prospect which has scarcely changed since our April forecast. Our early estimate suggests that output was stable in the third quarter of this year, after a fall of 0.6 per cent in the second quarter (figure 1). Measured on an annual basis the contraction is only slightly less bad than the 4.6 per cent recorded in 1931.

DAMPAK KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL TERHADAP PHK

Crisis financial happened in latter months truly begin inUnited States. But the impact or effect to other nations, includingIndonesia, cannot be obviated. Many circle of predicting this crisis inIndonesiawill start felt in the year next. Possibly continue until year 2010. The decline of material requisition inAmericanStateand Japan for State of purpose ofIndonesiaexporting result the light sectors this exporting and result threat disconnection of job everywhere. So also some the companies inSurabaya, there is about 11 company, they have raised PHK to the employees, is mostly is medium scale company. Crisis knocking over in this time still early. Estimate, crisis culminate at mid of knowing 2009. In this time sector is real will feel guncangan very heavy. For anticipating kemungkinahn crisis obsolesce financial the is global have to be looked by the solution, is more than anything else cure of economics inIndonesianot so strong. This thing is seen fromIndonesiaforeign exchange reserve which still weakens. At least, butuh time of two until three year for returning was normal. To break this financial crisis impact of government require to do inter alia: (1) Government have to pay attention to UMKM, (2) Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PNPM), (3) Reinforcement Of Performance Exported, and (4) Strengthen Economics Base on independence. Keyword: Global crisis impact and PHK