Single currency and regional integration in the ECOWAS region: A new estimation technique using the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Poisson with High Dimensional Fixed Effects (PPMLHDFE).

The progress of regional integration in ECOWAS is leading to the desire to create an optimal monetary zone. This desire to create an optimal monetary zone is leading to a wave of divergent views on the effect and exchange rate regime of the single currency on trade. On the one hand, WAMZ countries want to adopt it with a flexible exchange rate, while on the other hand, WAEMU countries want to adopt it with a fixed exchange rate pegged to the euro. This divergence of views is at the heart of our problem. We need to analyze the effect of this currency and its flexible exchange rate regime on regional integration, more particularly the market integration of the Economic Community of West African States. Our evaluation is based on an augmented gravity model as the basic theoretical model, with the Pseudo Maximum Poisson Likelihood with High Dimension Fixed Effects (PPMHDFE) as the estimation method. This panel study is based on data from the World Bank (WDI), IMF (DOTS) and CEPII from 2009 to 2018. The question addressed by the analysis of the potential effect of sharing a single currency on integration by the ECOWAS market, allows us to arrive at two main results. (i) The potential effect of the single currency on trade is significant, robustness tests confirm the positive effect of currency sharing on trade. (ii) The flexible exchange rate has positive effects on trade. Thus, we therefore call on the political leaders of ECOWAS countries to make efforts to meet the convergence criteria and the establishment of this single currency in order to be the foundation of the single African currency, on the one hand. On the other hand, we recommend the adoption of a single currency with a variable exchange rate with a gradual approach.

A DSGE model with partial euroization: the case of the Macedonian economy

This paper describes the theoretical structure and estimation results for a DSGE model for the Macedonian economy. Having as benchmark the model of Copaciu et al. (2015), modified to allow for a fixed exchange rate, we are able to match relatively well the volatility observed in the data. Given the monetary policy regime in place, the debt deflation channel is more important relative to the financial accelerator one when compared to the flexible exchange rate case. The lack of balance sheet effects results in no significant differences in terms of net worth evolution across the two types of entrepreneurs when impulse response functions are evaluated. However, the shocks related to the financial sector appear to be especially important for investment, for the domestic interest rate and interest rate spreads, illustrating the relevance of including financial frictions in the model. With the exchange rate not acting as a shock absorber, the external shocks are more relevant for the CPI inflation and the domestic interest rate. The drop in GDP associated with the pandemic mainly reflects the negative innovations to the consumption preference shock and to the permanent technology shock.

EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT AND FLEXIBILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: THE CASE OF TRANSITION COUNTRIES

Milton Friedman’s traditional claim is that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment by means of their cor- rective movements before the balance of payments crisis occurs. In order to test this hypothesis, we employ the first order autoregression based on the panel data on exchange rate regime and external balance expressed as the share of balance of goods and services in GDP. The sample covers 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and 12 Common- wealth of Independent States (CIS) transition countries over the period 2000-2019. The results, which are based on the sample of all transition countries, failed to prove that more flexible exchange rate regimes facilitate external adjust- ment. When the analysis was performed on two groups of countries separately, the results showed that the deficit of balance of goods and services in CIS countries has a higher persistence compared to CEE countries. However, a more flexible exchange rate regime does not facilitate external ad- justment. On the other hand, in CEE countries, the relation- ship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of balance of goods and services reversion exists, proving that Friedman’s hypothesis does hold.

Determining the Real Exchange Rate Equilibrium for Pakistan

The achievement of macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth are the main targets of macroeconomic agents and policymakers. High volatility in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is noticed while moving towards flexible Exchange rate regime. Three assessment methodologies are followed in the paper i.e. PPP approach, PPP approach adjusted for Penn effect and reduced form equation approach to gauge REER misalignment. VAR modelling suggest that, PPP holds for Pakistan and Penn effect is witnessed in the country for FY1980-FY12018. The determinants of REER, like “openness to GDP ratio, Govt consumption to GDP ratio, Long term Investment to GDP ratio, relative productivity and terms of trade” are responsible for depreciation in REER. While, worker remittances and FDI leads towards the REER appreciation in. It is indispensable to opt for the devaluation of PKR to gain export competitiveness, which may result in shrinkage of current account deficit. To increase the productivity of tradable items and to reduce the GOVT consumption of imported items are few steps to push REER towards equilibrium level. As per the state of art model the range of misalignment in REER is from -3.9% to 4.2% in Pakistan.

World experience in the field of money market formation

The article examines the role of the money market in the local currency in the financial market, analyzes the prerequisites for the formation of the money market and the factors necessary for its development. The study examines both the ambitious policy reforms and the specifics of money market formation in the implementation of financial sector development plans and the solution of specific tasks for the development of money markets, the development of financial markets in developing and bordering countries. The main idea of the study is that the formation of stable and money markets is closely linked with the formation of a monetary policy regime based on a flexible exchange rate and the desire to reach a low and stable level. In other words, reforms aimed only at the development of money market rate policy, should take certain steps mechanisms, using projected interest rates and a relatively flexible exchange to achieve low and stable inflation rates. At the same time, the implementation of such a regime is unlikely to be successful without efforts to create appropriate money markets. Key words: financial system, national economy, money market, money market parameters, interest rate, world experience

Monetary Policy and Nigeria's Trade Balance, 1980-2018

Several countries have integrated monetary easement into their foreign policy to faucet the gains from trade thereby, assuring that market forces determine monetary policy instruments such as interest rate and exchange rate. It is on this note and this paper empirically evaluate the effect of monetary policy on Nigeria's trade balance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model on the time series data spanning from 1980 to 2018. The findings reveal that monetary policy tools of real interest and effective exchange rate have a long-run co-integration relationship and significant adverse effects on Nigeria's trade balance both in the short-run and long-run. Thus, the paper concludes that monetary policy is a veritable tool through which Nigeria can maintain a favorable trade balance. Therefore, policymakers should step on measures that will maintain low-interest rates to sustain a flexible exchange rate and remove all rigidities associated with the international payment system.JEL Classification: C22, E52, F13How to Cite:Sakanko, M. A., & Akims, K. A. (2021). Monetary Policy and Nigeria’s Trade Balance, 1980-2018. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 129-138. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.18132.

عائد الإصدار النقدي في ظل نظام سعر الصرف المرن في العراق للمدة (1990-2003)

This study deals with the relationship between the flexible exchange rate system and the return on the monetary issue, in other words, it tries to clarify the extent of the impact of adopting the flexible exchange rate system on the monetary return that the government can get. Therefore, this study came divided into three sections, the first topic dealt with the concept of the flexible exchange rate, while the second topic dealt with the concept of the return on the cash issue and methods of measuring it, and the third section reviews the size of the return on the cash issue achieved by the government if it follows the flexible exchange rate system. Keywords: yield on the cash issue, flexible exchange rate system, inflation tax, opportunity cost.

Openness-inflation Nexus in alternative monetary regimes

By applying an endogenous switching regression model to a sample of 64 countries, this article explores whether the effect of trade openness on inflation is influenced by the adoption of inflation targeting (IT). The outcome indicates that, while there exists a significant and negative impact of trade openness on inflation in the non-IT countries with flexible exchange rate system, the effect is negligible in the IT economies. In addition, the above differential inflation effect of trade openness across IT and non-IT regimes is only present in the developing subsample with flexible exchange rate system, but not the developed counterpart. Moreover, apart from trade openness, financial openness reinforces inflation in those developing countries not adopting IT, whereas no such significant effect is found in developing countries adopting IT. Instead of inflation, further results show that trade openness lowers inflation volatility both in developing and developed countries not adopting IT, yet the impact is smaller in developed country group. However, no such statistically significant link is found in developing and developed countries that adopt IT.

Caught in the Crosswinds

A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.