COMPARISON OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECASTS AT PULKOVO AIRPORT USING FORECASTING METHODS IN THE STATISTICA PROGRAM

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
N. D. Lepeshkina ◽  
◽  
S. A. Andronov ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
B.A. SEMENIKHIN ◽  
◽  
L.P. KUZNETSOVA ◽  
YU.A. MALNEVA ◽  
A.YU. ALTUKHOV ◽  
...  

Results of inspection and the analysis of passenger traffics on routes of the bus of Kursk are presented, the main shortcomings of the existing route network are revealed. The analysis of change of daily volume of transportations of passengers made on the basis of data of it and the previous inspections of passenger traffics and also distribution of total power of a passenger traffic on hours of day is provided. Results of development of rational route bus network of Kursk which is almost completely deprived of the shortcomings inherent in the existing route network are presented.


2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 75-83
Author(s):  
B.A. SEMENIKHIN ◽  
◽  
L.P. KUZNETSOVA ◽  
K.Yu. KUZNETSOV ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
V. V. Nefedev

For the definition and implementation of breakthrough technologies the most important is the role of scientific and technical forecasting. Well-known forecasting methods based on extrapolation, expert assessments and mathematical modeling are not universal and have a number of significant disadvantages. The article proposes an original method of scientific and technical forecasting based on the use of the methodology of artificial neural networks. 


2018 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 232-330
Author(s):  
A. V. Komissarov ◽  
E. A. Makarova ◽  
S. V. Muktepavel ◽  
I. A. Nestrakhov ◽  
I. N. Spesivtseva

Abstract. In modern conditions for passenger complex of Russian Railways, important tasks include improvement of transportation quality, maintenance of stable positions in a competitive environment and increasing demand. To address these issues, a customer-oriented approach is applied based on the segmentation of transport market in relation to certain groups of passengers. Performance of children's transportation is of particular relevance and social significance. Railways are charged with a huge range of work, including sale of travel documents, preparation and equipping of passenger cars, provision of food during the trip, instructing workers, ensuring security during the embarkation/disembarkation of passengers, etc. Children can travel as individually with accompanying persons and as part of organized groups. Processes of planning, organizing, monitoring the transportation of this age category of passengers are associated with the analysis of a large amount of reference and regulatory and reporting documentation. On the basis of the ACS “Express-3”, a program-analytical complex “Children's transportation” was developed and implemented, which allows to receive data at the regional and network levels in the operational (train number, day) and statistical (period of dates, month) modes. This information technology provides analytical support for key transportation management functions — planning, control, analysis. Planning of transportation of organized children's groups is carried out on the basis of a study of the dynamics of data on the number of applications received and travel documents issued, determining the routes of trains, periods of the highest intensity of passenger traffic, obtaining information about the stations of embarkation and disembarkation. To perform the functions of monitoring the embarkation and disembarkation at the destination station of groups of children, the employees involved receive information on the train number, car number, date and time of arrival, number of children in the group using the Children's Transportation software. For the analysis of transportation of children's age categories, a functional has been developed that ensures the construction of aggregated reporting based on trains data that completed the trip. Users receive reporting information in table form, including “strict” (designed according to the approved layout) and “flexible” forms (construction is performed according to specified parameters). Software and analytical complex is designed for managers and specialists of the passenger unit of the JSC “Russian Railways”, has a modular principle of increasing functionality and provides a solution to current problems in the system of organizing children's transport service.


2019 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 01004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Dudek

The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.


Author(s):  
Jonathan Coignard ◽  
Maxime Janvier ◽  
Vincent Debusschere ◽  
Gilles Moreau ◽  
Stéphanie Chollet ◽  
...  

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