scholarly journals IMPACT OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jawad ◽  
Ghulam Shabbir Khan Niazi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Oil Price Volatility

scholarly journals Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data

2019 ◽  
Vol 233-234 ◽  
pp. 612-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reneé van Eyden ◽  
Mamothoana Difeto ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Mark E. Wohar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Advanced Economies

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on China’s Economy: An Empirical Investigation Based on VAR Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 524-527 ◽  
pp. 3211-3215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Ping Wang ◽  
Ai Mei Hu ◽  
Zhen Xin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
China’S Economy

China has been in rapid economic growth and industrial structure reform for recent years, and oil, as a most important raw material for industrial production, its price fluctuations have direct impact on energy-intensive industries as well as non-energy-intensive industries and their associated industries’ overall demands. Under the price transmission mechanism, oil price volatility imposes significant influences on economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy as well. This paper established VAR model among oil prices and economic indicators such as economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy, and by data processing , stability test and cointegration test, we found that there existed long term stable cointegration relations among these sequences; through Granger Causality test we found that oil price volatility was the Granger cause of the fluctuations of economic growth rate, price level and monetary policy, and meanwhile, changes in economic growth rate is the Granger cause of that in price level. The result of our empirical study indicated that, oil price volatility has a profound influence on China’s economy, and thus, China should improve the establishment of the oil futures market to avoid risks of oil price volatility and secure long-term stability of its economic growth.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 237
Author(s):  
Tochukwu Timothy Okoli ◽  
Devi Datt Tewari ◽  
Ajibola Rhodaoluwafisayomi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Oil Price Volatility

Nigeria as an oil exporting mono-economy is susceptible to fluctuations in the world oil prices. About 97 percent of the government’s revenues are gotten from proceeds from oil export. The study attempts to assess the behaviors of macroeconomic variables in the face of oil price volatility in Nigeria. The empirical evidences reveal that macroeconomic variables were susceptibility to volatility in Oil Price. The theoretical framework is based on the Mundel-Flaming model and adopts the variance decomposition and impulse response functions to explain the dynamic properties of the VAR methodology. The impulse response results reveal that a one standard deviation in oil price will trigger a significant change in RGDP, GEXP, INFLATION and IMPORT both in the short and long run, and IR and EXR significantly only in the short run. Finally, the variance decomposition of RGDP, GEXP and EXR reveals that the variability in them were significantly explained by oil price volatility and other tests ran reveals a consistent result. Therefore, volatility in oil price has direct impact on real GDP, Government expenditure, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and import. The researchers therefore recommend diversification of the economy to other sectors, financial prudence, sound fiscal policy and the lowering of interest rate to stimulate domestic investment.  

scholarly journals EFECTOS DE LA INCERTIDUMBRE DE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO EN EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (309) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domingo Rodríguez Benavides ◽  
Francisco López Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>En este trabajo investigamos si la incertidumbre del precio internacional del petróleo incidió en la actividad económica de México durante 1983:2-2017:4. Empleamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructural bivariado con un proceso generalizado autorregresivo de heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH) en media que captura el impacto de la volatilidad del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la formación bruta de capital fijo. Nuestros resultados muestran que la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero tiene una influencia negativa en la actividad económica. Además, revelan la presencia de efectos asimétricos: la tasa de crecimiento de la producción aumenta (disminuye) después de un choque negativo (positivo) en el precio del petróleo. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de políticas públicas que mitiguen el efecto de la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero y contribuyan a la estabilidad económica.</p><p align="center"> </p><p align="center">EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES UNCERTAINTY ON MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico’s economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico’s economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.</p>

scholarly journals Oil price volatility and its impact on economic growth and food security in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 482-491
Author(s):  
Mousumi Saha ◽  
Seikh Mohammad Sayem ◽  
A. K. M. Abdullah Al-Amin ◽  
Shankar Majumder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines oil price volatility and the impact of oil price changes on the growth of the economy and food security in Bangladesh. The study uses yearly data of macroeconomic variables from 1991 to 2015 and global food security index (GFSI) for the period 2012 to 2015. Furthermore, data of GFSI for previous four years have been simulated using exponential model. The GARCH (2, 1) model with minimum AIC postulates that volatility was high in the previous period and it has been continued to be lower in the current period (i.e. 2015). The co-integration test and error correction model exhibit that both in short-run and long-run case the increasing oil price negatively affected the growth of the economy. The simultaneous equations regression model using three-stage least squares estimator discloses that an increase in oil price declines the economic growth and food security simultaneously and significantly. Moreover, this study suggests that oil price volatility is not a good sign for the economy of Bangladesh, since, the country is an importer of crude oil, government policy should be quick responsive in relation to international oil market to create consistent oil market and sustainable economic development in Bangladesh. J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 16(3): 482–491, December 2018

scholarly journals Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth

Energy Policy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 126 ◽  
pp. 131-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uchechukwu Jarrett ◽  
Kamiar Mohaddes ◽  
Hamid Mohtadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility
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