Clustering Countries in the Context of the Pandemic and Underlying Conditions

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the state of underlying conditions of countries in terms of health system, sanitary infrastructure, governance, among others. This study aims to classify countries using COVID-19-related variables such as the lethality rate, the contagion growth rate, the stringency index, and underlying conditions of countries directly related to COVID-19 such as access to clean water, hospital beds per 10000 inhabitants, government effectiveness index, population older than 65 years old and economic growth rate. To determine the clusters of a set of countries from all continents (29 from Africa, 35 from Asia, 35 from Europe, 11 from North America, 2 from Oceania and 8 from South America), the k-means partitioning method is used. This approach consists in constructing partitions and evaluate their intra-class and inter-class similarity. Based on the results, three clusters are identified: i. Severely affected countries with high stringency and moderate capacity, ii. Moderately affected countries with moderate stringency and high capacity and iii. Severely affected countries with low stringency but low capacity.

Four Asian Tigers' Political and Economic Development Revisited 1998-2017: From the Perspective of National Identity

Developmental state used to be and is still regarded as a very practical theory to explain why Four Asian Tigers-Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore enjoyed almost averagely double-digit economic growth rate each year from 1970 to 1990 as well as East Asian economic development. However, developmental state theory couldn’t tell why South Korea and Singapore’s economic development had done much better than Taiwan and Hong Kong’s in terms of GDP per capita after 2003 and 2004 respectively. The aim of the study is trying to use national identity perspective to explain why it happens like this, since Four Asian Tigers’ economic development more or less was troubled by national identity issue. The major difference between these two groups is that South Korea and Singapore have done better in dealing with national identity issue than Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Analysis of the Spatial Structure of Regional Enterprises and Its Impact on Regional Economic Development Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis Model (DEA)

This paper adopts the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the spatial structure of regional enterprises and their impact on regional economic development and to apply the analysis of the impact between the two. Firstly, the concepts of urban agglomeration, regional spatial pattern evolution, and coordinated regional development and their connotations are explained to define the research topic of this paper. Then, we systematically analyze the theory of regional economic growth, development stage theory, spatial polarization theory, and regional spatial association theory and review the existing studies on regional economic growth, regional development stage, regional spatial association, and pattern evolution, as well as the efficiency and quality of regional economic growth, which further clarify the research focus and research ideas of this paper. The time evolution, spatial divergence, and spatial association characteristics of the economic growth rate of the central urban agglomerations are measured, then the DEA model and entropy value method are used to calculate the economic growth efficiency and economic growth quality of the urban agglomerations, respectively, the time evolution characteristics and spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the economic growth efficiency and economic growth quality are analyzed, and finally, the coupled model of regional economic growth rate, efficiency, and quality is constructed. Finally, a coordination model of the coupling of regional economic growth rate, efficiency, and quality is constructed and the time-series evolution characteristics and spatial-temporal divergence characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the three are comprehensively analyzed, and the spatial classification of the coupling coordination type of each county unit is made. The direction and path of regulation for the optimization of spatial structure and coordinated spatial development of urban agglomerations are proposed, and finally, the leading factors for the reorganization of the regional economic spatial structure are analyzed, and the regulatory countermeasures for the optimization of the economic spatial structure of urban agglomerations are proposed according to the spatial structure of urban agglomerations and their evolutionary characteristics.

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Inflasi Di Indonesia Pada Masa Pandemi

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused recessions in many countries around the world. This happened after economic growth in the first and second quarters of 2020. Some of the countries experiencing recession are Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Japan, France, Hong Kong, and the United States. If the economic growth in each quarter is also negative, Indonesia will experience a recession. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) noted that Indonesia's economic growth rate fell to minus (5.32%) in the second quarter of 2020. Previously, Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 was 2.97% or started to slow down. Inflation is a tendency to increase the prices of goods and services in general, which continues continuously, which will reduce the purchasing power of the public, especially for low-income groups. Therefore, it is hoped that there will be a control over the rate of inflation, especially during the Covid 19 Pandemic which had an impact on Indonesia's macro conditions. This observation discusses "The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Indonesia's Inflation Rate", aims to determine the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Level of Inflation in Indonesia. The results of this observation show that in March 2020 there was inflation of 2.96% year on year (yoy), with an increase in the price of gold jewelery and several food prices that experienced a quite drastic increase.

Fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery: Taiwan's experience

PurposeThis study examined Taiwan's fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery. The costs and benefits, aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), of fiscal policy responses were identified and valued. Although it may be too early to conclude whether the benefits outweigh the costs, the performance and outcome of fiscal measures were evaluated.Design/methodology/approachThe study relied on secondary data, including governmental official data, legislative reviews, audit reports and public opinion polls to understand objective and subjective benefits and costs in economic, social and environmental dimensions. However, while the costs were measured in monetary terms, some of the benefits (i.e. satisfaction) could not be monetized; therefore, this study focused on identifying and valuing benefits from fiscal measures but set aside the issues of monetizing and discounting.FindingsWith respect to the costs, a special budget of NT$840 billion was approved, of which 66.83% was allocated for economic development, 33.12% for social welfare and 0.05% for environmental protection. In terms of the benefits, the economic growth rate was forecasted to be 5.88% in 2021 and 3.69% in 2022, while the average economic growth rate was 2.77% during the period from 2012 to 2019. Social equity was emphasized as various and customized bailout packages were provided to impacted individuals and industries. Moreover, most citizens were confident in the government's efforts to combat the pandemic and stimulate recovery in Taiwan.Originality/valueThis paper comprehensively details Taiwan's experience of fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery. The cost-benefit approach was conceptually adopted. Bearing the value of “build back better” and “rebuild better,” the benefits of fiscal measures are promising, although there are indebted costs of the special budget.

Strategic analysis and assessment of the export potential of regional agricultural products based on the use of foresight technologies

The article substantiates that it is advisable to use foresight technologies as an applied tool for solving problems of forming strategic priorities for the development of the agro-industrial complex. The methodological features of the use of foresight technology in forecasting the production volumes of the agro-industrial complex at the regional level are disclosed. The principal task of the development of the Republic of Bashkortostan is to increase the economic growth rate to a level above the global average, which allows ensuring food independence and increasing the competitiveness of exported agricultural products. The study purpose is the practical application of foresight research in the planning of export of agricultural products of the regional complex for a strategic perspective. In the implementation of the study, the following methods were used: comparative analysis, scenario forecasting and strategic planning, and foresight technologies. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by the formation of a set of methodological and practical recommendations on the use of foresight tools in the implementation of the export potential strategic analysis of the regional agro-industrial complex products. The article presents an assessment of the resource potential of agricultural production under an extensive-intensive development scenario of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Results of the research are as follows: the foresight forecasting algorithm of production volumes of the regional agro-industrial complex, taking into account foreign economic activity development, is formed; the TOP-5 agricultural products exported by the Republic of Bashkortostan are highlighted; the results of forecasting indicators of gross grain harvest in the region for the long term and the projected export volumes of agricultural products in the region are presented. Determination of the resource potential for the production of agricultural products will allow creating an innovative model of economic development of federal subjects for effective foreign economic cooperation. It is summarized, that foresight-forecasting conclusions determine the «mainstream» trends of the regional agro-industrial complex functioning.

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters

The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.

Macroeconomic Short-Term High-Precision Combined Forecasting Algorithm Based on Grey Model

Using the characteristics of grey forecasting, which requires a small amount of sample data and a simple modeling process, to predict the main macroeconomic indicators in the early stage, combined with the filtering decomposition method and the production function method, establishes a short-term high-precision combination forecasting algorithm for macroeconomics based on the grey model. The algorithm uses the improved HP filter method in the HP filter method to study whether the potential economic growth rate can be more accurately measured, and the production function method is used to calculate the potential economic growth rate. First, the two methods are used to calculate the potential economic growth rate. The accuracy of this method finally established a combined model based on the two models for short-term forecasting. Under the premise of considering economic factors, the input data is preprocessed, and the high-precision combined forecast is used to finally obtain the macroeconomic forecast results. The calculation examples in the paper show that the method is feasible and effective.

Information Technology on Economic Growth and Stability

This research aims to analyze how the role of information technology on economic growth and stability. Information technology at this time can be an important indicator of economic growth and stability. It is hoped that with information technology, a country can increase the production of goods and services. This research used descriptive qualitative in nature and with a literature review. The sample in this study is the growth and stability that occurs in various countries, especially Indonesia. This research discusses how information technology helps in increasing growth and stability in a country. The results of this study indicate that information technology is very influential on economic growth and stability. The role of information technology has the most influence on economic growth is to increase the effectiveness of resource allocation in organizations by 85.2%. and 77.8% of the response to information technology can increase the amount of investment in a company. The use of information technology will also speed up the production process by reducing the time needed to sort components and raw materials while reducing the potential for errors. it can be concluded that information technology is very influential in the economic growth rate of 96.3% respondents

The Impact of Capital Flight on Economic Growth and Financial Stability in Palestine

This study examined the impact of Capital Flight on Economic Growth and Financial Stability in Palestine from the period (2000-2020). The time series data of Capital Flight, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Foreign Debt, and Real GDP used in the study, and the use of ordinary least squares estimation technology to analyze the research data. Carried out Johansen co-integration and error correction mechanism. The evidence of the research results shows that there is a co-integration relationship between the research variables, and Capital Flight has harmed the Economic Growth of the Palestinian case. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government should provide a favorable investment environment to encourage investment and prevent Capital Flight from Palestine. In addition, the Palestinian Government should also prevent Capital Flight because these Infrastructure Projects/Programs will reduce the country’s production costs. The government should create a suitable investment environment for foreign investment and encourage entrepreneurs and equity owners to invest these funds domestically. In addition, the government should use all Foreign Aid funds in appropriate places to increase the Economic Growth Rate and create job opportunities for the unemployed, thereby increasing the National Economic Growth Rate.