Optimization of “human-machine-environment” system: human operator reliability assessment

This article highlights the need to take into account the human component when solving optimization problems in the “man-machine-environment” system. However, currently there are no methods for quantifying the human operator reliability in such systems. An approach for assessing the human operator reliability is proposed. The mathematical apparatus for describing the human operator reliability in the ergatic system based on the Markov theory of random state transitions described by a polynomial system of differential equations for each human operation in the system in a theoretical form is presented. The implementation of this mathematical apparatus assumes the availability of statistical and experimental data on the failure rates and restoration of its productivity. The possibility of the designer to assess the final probability of the human operator of the ergatic environmental control system for one of the most critical operations (to achieve the final goal) in the absence of statistical (experimental) data by analogy with the “weak” link in the technical system is justified. The methodological solution for assessing the human operator reliability in an ergatic control system based on experimental data using the example of a manual trigger of a fire alarm system, based on the expression of a standard pointer in the form of a readiness factor of technical products is shown. The experiment was conducted on a stand assembled from commercially available products, simulating a fire alarm device. In the article the experimental research results by four age groups and their statistical processing are presented.