scholarly journals Design for Climate Services

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mel WOODS ◽  
Raquel AJATES GONZALEZ ◽  
Drew HEMMENT ◽  
Drew HEMMENT
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Wicked Problems ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
The World

Droughts, floods and other climate-related hazards present critical challenges for communities across the world. Design is well-placed to respond to such wicked problems (Buchanan, 1992) however a user-led approach to the development of climate services is rare (Christel et al, 2017). Instead, scientists and governments rely on research and innovation between science and industry to develop climate services for early warning systems and decision-making. The design community is uniquely placed to contribute to such developments, particularly in proposing new perspectives where citizens are themselves potential users of such services and at the forefront of change-making practices.

scholarly journals Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Calvel ◽  
Micha Werner ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Andrés Cabrera Flamini ◽  
Ileen Streefkerk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sudden Onset ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Early Action

Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts. We identify the essential factors contributing to effective drought dissemination and communication using the people-centered approach advocated in the WMOs Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework (MHEWS). We use semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in the Mangochi and Salima Districts of Malawi. We show that the timely release of seasonal forecast, the tailoring of the drought warning content (and its timing) to agricultural decision making, and the provision of several dissemination channels enhance trust and improve uptake of drought warning information by farmers. Our analysis demonstrates that farmers seek, prepare, and respond to drought warning information when it is provided as advice on agricultural practices, rather than as weather-related information. The information was found to be useful where it offers advice on the criteria and environmental cues that farmers can use to inform their decisions in a timely manner. Based on our findings, we propose that by focusing on enhancing trust, improving information uptake and financial sustainability as key metrics, the MHEWS can be adapted for use in monitoring the effectiveness of early warning systems.

scholarly journals Conceptual Design of Extreme Sea-Level Early Warning Systems Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Engineering Optimization Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cléa Denamiel ◽  
Xun Huan ◽  
Ivica Vilibić
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Hazard Assessments

Coastal hazards linked to extreme sea-level events are projected to have a direct impact (by flooding) on 630 million of people by year 2100. Numerous operational forecasts already provide coastal hazard assessments around the world. However, they are largely based on either deterministic tools (e.g., numerical ocean and atmospheric models) or ensemble approaches which are both highly demanding in terms of high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Through a robust learning process, we propose conceptual design of an innovative architecture for extreme sea-level early warning systems based on uncertainty quantification/reduction and optimization methods. This approach might be cost-effective in terms of real-time computational needs while maintaining reliability and trustworthiness of the hazard assessments. The proposed architecture relies on three main tools aligning numerical forecasts with observations: (1) surrogate models of extreme sea-levels using polynomial chaos expansion, Gaussian processes or machine learning, (2) fast data assimilation via Bayesian inference, and (3) optimal experimental design of the observational network. A surrogate model developed for meteotsunami events – i.e., atmospherically induced long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band – has already been proven to greatly improve the reliability of extreme sea-level hazard assessments. Such an approach might be promising for several coastal hazards known to destructively impact the world coasts, like hurricanes or typhoons and seismic tsunamis.

Early warning systems in biosecurity; translating risk into action in predictive systems for invasive alien species

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 453-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Rainford ◽  
Andrew Crowe ◽  
Glyn Jones ◽  
Femke van den Berg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Alien Species ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Invasive Alien Species ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Horizon Scanning

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the most severe threats to biodiversity and are the subject of varying degrees of surveillance activity. Predictive early warning systems (EWS), incorporating automated surveillance of relevant dataflows, warning generation and dissemination to decision makers are a key target for developing effective management around IAS, alongside more conventional early detection and horizon scanning technologies. Sophisticated modelling frameworks including the definition of the ‘risky’ species pool, and pathway analysis at the macro and micro-scale are increasingly available to support decision making and to help prioritise risks from different regions and/or taxa. The main challenges in constructing such frameworks, to be applied to border inspections, are (i) the lack of standardisation and integration of the associated complex digital data environments and (ii) effective integration into the decision making process, ensuring that risk information is disseminated in an actionable way to frontline surveillance staff and other decision makers. To truly achieve early warning in biosecurity requires close collaboration between developers and end-users to ensure that generated warnings are duly considered by decision makers, reflect best practice, scientific understanding and the working environment facing frontline actors. Progress towards this goal will rely on openness and mutual understanding of the role of EWS in IAS risk management, as much as on developments in the underlying technologies for surveillance and modelling procedures.

2021 State of Climate Services report: Risk Information and Early Warning Systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica Grasso
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
The Right

<p>Between 1970 and 2019, 79% of disasters worldwide involved weather, water, and climate-related hazards. These disasters accounted for 56% of deaths and 75% of economic losses from disasters associated with natural hazards reported during that period. As climate change continues to threaten human lives, ecosystems and economies, risk information and early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly seen as key for reducing these impacts. The majority of countries, including 88% of least developed countries and small island states, that submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to UNFCCC have identified EWS as a “top priority”.<br><br>This latest multi-agency report, coordinated by WMO, highlights progress made in EWS capacity – and identifies where and how governments can invest in effective EWS to strengthen countries’ resilience to multiple weather, water and climate-related hazards. Being prepared and able to react at the right time, in the right place, can save many lives and protect the livelihoods of communities everywhere.</p>

The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bensadon ◽  
A. Strauss ◽  
R. Snacken
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Surveillance Networks ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
National Networks ◽  
First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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